Red Bull fears F1 rivals will keep it in an ADUO 'trap'

Red Bull fears a "large risk" of getting trapped in never being able to update its Formula 1 engine if the FIA stands firm in its ADUO rankings.

Discussions are ongoing between Red Bull and the FIA over the initial verdict that it is F1's benchmark.

The call that was made by the FIA after its analysis of data from the first five races judged Red Bull to be at least 2% ahead of Mercedes with its internal combustion engine, and more than 4% clear of everyone else.

Red Bull has queried those findings, and, in response, the FIA has agreed to review its ADUO data to ensure that its analysis was correct.

That process has been ongoing for two weeks now and, while no final decision has been reached yet, there has been no early evidence that the initial ADUO conclusions were wrong.

Long term consequences

Red Bull is still hoping that the FIA changes its mind, but it is fast facing up to a reality that there could be some major consequences if it does not.

One of the worst-case scenarios is that if rivals play it smart they could trap Red Bull in a situation where it is unable to bring any performance developments to its engine.

That is because the ADUO process does not force others to improve the internal combustion element that the rankings are based on – as they can instead elect to develop other areas.

As Audi's Gabriel Bortoleto said about a change Audi introduced at Barcelona, it was an improvement that had no impact on power figures as it was instead aimed at improving drivability.

"I don't think we gained any speed by doing this ADUO change, it was purely driveability related," he said.

"Hopefully in the future we are able to bring some ADUO stuff, but actually that brings performance on speed. But definitely one of the targets we had was drivability and it was definitely an improvement."

If the ICE performance of Red Bull's rivals is not lifted dramatically, then that would set in stone Red Bull's benchmark status over further review periods – meaning a window would never open for it to be granted extra development opportunities.

Speaking at the Austrian Grand Prix, Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies acknowledged the danger of such a scenario playing out, which could hamper his squad's chances of progressing up the grid for some time to come.

Asked about the potential of getting snookered if rivals played a tactical game with upgrades, Mekies said: "You're right. There is a large risk there for Red Bull, so you are completely right in exposing that risk.

"It is one of the reasons why it is vital for Red Bull, and more generally for the sport, that we get that picture right.

"We are thankful to the FIA for the fact that they are taking the time to release their conclusion. And yes, you always would like to reach an earlier conclusion, but it's more important that we reach the right one, even if it takes a bit more time."

ADUO windows

The FIA's ADUO process is a rolling one, with the governing body making calls after designated periods over the season to rank the manufacturers.

The next ADUO period runs from the Monaco GP at the start of June to the Hungarian GP just before the summer break.

Any change of status for Red Bull that would get it an upgrade opportunity would rest on other manufacturers not only having caught up but also having overtaken it by at least 2%.

Only Audi and Ferrari have so far used the ADUO opportunity to bring development steps to their power units.

Ferrari's step for this weekend's race in Austria has been played down by the squad in terms of its overall significance, with the team insisting it won't be a game-changer in the fight at the front.

Once a manufacturer is awarded ADUO it is allowed to bring changes for both the current season and the following one – so the gains have a long-term significance.

And this is why Red Bull knows that the consequences can be "heavy" if things do not go its way.

"At the moment, we are not changing any strategy, because these results are not a conclusion as it stands," added Mekies.

"We are spending our energy to engage with the FIA to make sure they reach the right conclusion. We have not changed any of our development strategy yet, but we try to get to the right answer. We try to take the time needed to get to the right answer.

"If it means our development needs to be moved by a few weeks, it is still a much lower consequence on the overall performance compared to getting the wrong answer and having heavy consequences both in '26 and in '27."