Mark Hughes: Upcoming Ferrari engine upgrades could decide F1 title

Was the Ferrari faster than the Mercedes at Barcelona? It wasn’t clear on race day because of the differences in their strategies and tyre choices.

The tyre deg was so high around this track - tough at the best of times but especially so with a surface of 50deg C – that Hamilton’s dramatic closing of the gap on his mediums after his second stop was easily explainable by the tyre age difference.

But the fact that Hamilton qualified within 0.064s of George Russell’s pole around arguably F1’s most technically demanding circuit tells us that the SF-26, with its latest upgrades, is absolutely on the pace despite its power shortfall to Mercedes.

That shortfall may be smaller than it appeared in the first five races included in F1's catch-up mechanism, called the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) system.

And with Ferrari having now been granted two upgrades for this season because of that ADUO result, there would have been no reason not to run the internal combustion to its full potential at Barcelona.

But when we look at the GPS traces of the two cars in qualifying, it’s clear that the Ferrari’s deployment still tails off earlier than that of the Mercedes. The difference is smaller than it was, but then it would be if it is even faster through the corners than it was before, boosted by its new upgrade package.

With faster corner exits, the electrical deployment has less to do.

So looking at the reasons for Ferrari suddenly being on the pace, the exact split between the Ferrari’s big aero upgrade and any possible freeing up of how the engine is being run is not definitive.

What is clear is that it is the fastest car through the corners, it does have the best spread of downforce. The way Ferrari has created the car suggests this advantage to be baked in.

Its unique interpretation of the dimensional boxes by where it has placed the differential has allowed an extra bodywork volume behind the diffuser, onto which it has mounted its downforce-enhancing exhaust-blocking vane to direct more airflow to the rear wing.

The extra bodywork effectively creates a bigger diffuser which, combined with the innovation around the exhaust, has given the car great downforce.

The Barcelona upgrade effectively fed this potent rear end with a more robust airflow from upstream. Its entry speed to almost every corner was higher than anyone other car and team.

This has all led McLaren’s reigning champion Lando Norris to state: “We're lucky that Ferrari doesn't have a better engine at the minute. If they had a better engine, they're dominating.

"They're the class of the field in terms of cornering performance at the minute. We're not even close to them.

"If they make improvements on the engine side, then they'll embarrass everyone."

If they make improvements on the engine side…

The strong rumour is there is a significant power unit upgrade coming at the next race in Austria, with a further one scheduled for Zandvoort/Monza time, perhaps with a bigger turbo.

Ferrari believes the latter will give it power parity with the current Mercedes power unit.

However, ADUO has offered Mercedes the opportunity of a single upgrade this year.

Mercedes did not plan its power unit development around the assumption of an upgrade opportunity whereas Ferrari clearly did, if it can produce an update as soon as Austria.

So whether any Mercedes' upgrade can be made in time and whether it will be potent enough to overcome the effectiveness of the Ferrari’s aerodynamics will likely determine the shape of the mid-latter part of the season.

But suddenly, Ferrari is looking like such a formidable package that with so many races to go, the 41 points between Kimi Antonelli and Hamilton doesn’t look unbridgeable.