Oscar Piastri heads into the Miami Formula 1 weekend leading the world championship with every chance of adding to his five grand prix victories. But his career would look very different had Alpine got its paperwork in order three years ago.
A question from The Race Members' Club listener Clive Barker highlighted this potential alternative trajectory in a question we've answered on the latest episode of The Race F1 Podcast when he asked "would Piastri have ever won a race if it weren't for the Alpine debacle that led to McLaren getting him?".
The simple answer to that is probably not yet. In this hypothetical scenario, following Fernando Alonso's surprise defection to Aston Martin, Piastri races for Alpine in 2023.
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The contract Alpine erroneously believed it had with Piastri included an option on his services for 2024, meaning at least a two-year stint with the team.
Realistically, when he was promoted, Alpine would have attempted to get him to sign a longer-term deal. But given the sharp management of Mark Webber, we will assume the original 1+1 deal that never was stands.
Piastri at Alpine
In the alternate timeline, Piastri lines up alongside Esteban Ocon at Alpine and likely has a decent rookie season in 2023.
The Alpine was the sixth-best car on average, and given both Ocon and Pierre Gasly claimed a podium finish that season and racked up around 60 points each, it seems reasonable to imagine Piastri could have done similar.
Their experience advantage means Piastri might not have been as consistent in terms of scoring (they split 23 points finishes close to evenly between them) but he'd still have made a good impression.
Admittedly, he couldn't have been as attention-grabbing as he was in the McLaren given how competitive that car became, but he'd still have been a star rookie.
That would have been followed by a difficult season in 2024 after Alpine's bad start, albeit with some strong late-season performances, but it's difficult to imagine him emerging as a race-winner without a slice of luck given the pace of the car across those two seasons.
"Piastri has the Gasly time at Alpine: much of a muchness [in terms of results given the machinery]," suggests The Race's Ben Anderson on the podcast.
"He obviously doesn't benefit from having Gasly's experience, but given his quality and personality, it seemed clear even before he came into F1 that he was going to be good, very capable and very switched on.
"So he puts himself in a good position in the driver market if he wants to get out."
The 2025 question
This is the key question of this alternative timeline: does Piastri stay with Alpine for 2025, and if not where does he land?
If he makes as big an impression as expected, he'd be on the radar of top teams and going into this year most likely that would mean either McLaren, given he was already on that team's radar, or perhaps Red Bull to partner Max Verstappen.
It's difficult to say with any certainty what McLaren's situation would be as that would depend on who drove for the team in 2023 and 2024.
Potentially, Daniel Ricciardo might get the third year he was, in the real world, paid not to do. But the team appeared resolved to part company.
Therefore, perhaps McLaren would go for Gasly, or maybe Alex Albon from Williams if it could have agreed a suitable deal? The success of whoever McLaren signed would dictate whether McLaren had space for Piastri, but he would have been an obvious choice for Red Bull.
So let's imagine Piastri starts 2025 with Red Bull. A big challenge, no question, but one he could rise to given his driving style and tolerances mean he could well make the most of that.
That said, it's unlikely he'd be a winner yet, albeit not impossible. And with persistent rumours about Verstappen potentially leaving Red Bull, perhaps he'd be well-placed to lead the team into 2026?
That would be a good position to be in, but not as good as the one he's in with McLaren now.
The Williams alternative
It's easy to forget that promoting Piastri to an Alpine race seat in 2023 was not the team's first choice, which creates an intriguing second alternative timeline where he races for Williams.
The deal the team erroneously believed it had meant Piastri would be a free agent if he didn't have a race seat in F1 in 2023.
Therefore, given its first choice was to run Fernando Alonso for at least one more year in 2023, it felt that it needed to find him a berth for that season. This led to an agreement to loan him to Williams.
This was conceived as part of a potential new deal extending to 2026, with Piastri at Williams in 2023, then either staying with the team for a second year in 2024 or moving to Alpine (with the break clause at the end of July), then definitely in the Alpine for the final two years of its duration.
Indeed, the sending of this proposal in May 2022 was said by the Contract Recognition Board verdict to be "the last straw" for Piastri and his management and proof that "Alpine had been shilly-shallying".
Had Piastri gone to Williams in 2023, he would have partnered Albon instead of Logan Sargeant. That is a significant upgrade for Williams and Piastri would have made a good impression, albeit with even less eye-catching results than he would have achieved at Alpine.
This was the season in which Albon bagged a smattering of minor points finishes, with a best of seventh, usually with strong drives on lower-downforce tracks. Williams ended that season seventh in the constructors' championship.
Piastri would certainly have scored points several times, and even in this scenario would have made a big impression.
Could he have matched or beaten Albon? Possibly, although even being a strong second-best would have been good for a rookie - and to make the maximum impact down the grid ideally you need to beat your team-mate. No doubt, that would have been his objective.
Regardless of whether Alpine opted to promote him in 2024, this would lead to Piastri being in a good position.
Either he would be a free agent for 2025, or bound to Alpine until the end of 2026 should that contract proposal have been agreed.
Again, it seems likely Piastri and Webber would keep their options open. And once again, that leads to a situation that's good for Piastri, one in which he could also be at Red Bull or McLaren.
But again, this is an inferior position to where he is now as a proven winner with a serious chance of being world champion and established as one of F1's top guns. He'd have made a success of F1 wherever he was, but in this case what really happened is perhaps the best-case scenario.
While such alternative histories are entirely speculative, this proves how good a job Webber, Piastri and all those involved in the decision making process in his camp did, the sharpness of McLaren in recognising his potential, and how ineptly Alpine handled the situation through not getting its paperwork in order.
