Expectations have been high over the winter of an instant Mercedes fightback following a disappointing 2022 but it may need to play the long game to have a say in the outcome of the 2023 Formula 1 season.
An unprecedented title-winning stretch for Mercedes came to an end in 2022, which was a challenging year that fell well below its lofty standards. But it also had immense value.
Mercedes went through painful lessons to improve the myriad tools available to an F1 team, its culture was tested like never before, and the end result should be a much better understanding of this rules cycle and the aerodynamic principles that must be adhered to.
That experience has made Mercedes more dangerous to its rivals than ever. The learnings from such a season should have further energised a team that has been so good at not letting complacency creep in around the edges. George Russell proved he belonged at the top level and Lewis Hamilton’s motivation continued to endure.
The raw ingredients to strike back are there. But it is easier said than done. Red Bull ended the year with a clear advantage and eliminating the gap in one winter would be a tough task. Indeed, Mercedes launched its car looking to “eventually” be at the front again. Then testing seemed to confirm it was on the back foot.
“It feels a step in the right direction but it’s ultimately about laptime,” said Russell mid-test.
“Comparing to this time 12 months things are running a lot smoother.
“There were a lot of alarm bells ringing with the porpoising, unsure how to solve it, a bit lost, car characteristics were not good.
“We’ve got things we need to improve the car. But generally speaking we are roughly where we would have expected to be.”
Mercedes ended a mixed three days in Bahrain in a happier place but still with work to do with its performance.
The crippling bouncing it suffered last year “has pretty much gone” according to Hamilton.
“That’s a huge step forward for us,” he added.
“But there are still some underlying things we’re working through. Some of the balance limitations that we had last year are present.”
Mercedes did get a better understanding of its current package and perhaps also the needs of the revised Pirelli front tyres, as it looked unstable mid-to-exit especially on a confusing day two. Perhaps the final day is where it would have ideally hoped to have been on day one.
Mercedes is therefore unlikely to be at the maximum with the W14 even in its current form, before an update arrives a few races into the year – bodywork upgrades that technical director Mike Elliott said “won’t look like somebody else’s, it will look like an evolution of ours”.
“Our expectations were that we would likely be playing catch-up to the front, based on how last year ended,” said team boss Toto Wolff.
“That seems to be the case so far but we will only know for sure after this weekend.
“Nevertheless, we are confident we have got a car we can work with and are in a stronger position than 12 months ago.”
With the changes to the Mercedes being quite vast to conquer the limitations of last year, and the slightly complicated test compared to, say, Red Bull with its evolutionary RB19, there is reason to believe Mercedes is in a steep phase of its learning curve.
A big step may therefore be possible between testing and the first race itself – when different wing levels can also be expected, which should improve otherwise unremarkable speed trap figures – assuming Mercedes has been able to apply lessons from the clearer picture it said it had by the end of the test.
The question of whether Mercedes must adapt to a few unexpected things or address a more fundamental performance limitation – maybe with the early season upgrades? – could be a defining one in whether it has realistic title ambitions.
Mercedes cannot afford to have the up and down start it had last season, though it can get away with not fighting Red Bull for wins in the first few races.
If Mercedes survives that with its cars racking up consistent points in the top five, it will probably lose ground but not so much that it’s impossible to catch up. For there remains faith in its concept, and that it can be developed to where Mercedes needs it to be.
“We definitely believe eventually we will have a car capable of getting in that fight,” said Russell.
“Whether we’re going to have that in Bahrain, may be a bit of a stretch. But there’s no reason why eventually we can’t get there this year.”
The clock will start ticking from Bahrain if Mercedes does not start the season in contention for a podium or race win. But not qualifying on the front two rows in Bahrain, or not finishing in the top three, or the lead Mercedes finishing half a minute behind the Red Bull, does not necessarily define how 2023 will play out.
Of course, a hell of a lot of work will be needed to recover. But Mercedes knows that already. And it would just confirm a prior suspicion that it is starting behind.
If the car is fundamentally more sound than last year, if it has the potential to be developed into a title contender, Mercedes has the capacity to deliver on it.
This weekend’s season opener should finally offer the first indication of whether these conditions can be met – and when.
