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McLaren will head into Sunday's Qatar Grand Prix with its first shot at sealing the 2024 Formula 1 constructors' title.
The team has not won the constructors' championship since 1998, when its drivers were Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard. It did have the top-scoring driver pair in 2007 but was thrown out of the constructors' standings due to the 'Spygate' affair.
The McLarens will start third (Lando Norris) and fourth (Oscar Piastri) on Sunday, behind a front row of Red Bull's Max Verstappen and Mercedes' George Russell.
After Piastri and Norris finished first and second in Saturday's Lusail sprint, McLaren heads Ferrari by 30 points and Red Bull by 67 points (with 88 points available).
Only a total Sunday meltdown from McLaren would get Red Bull anywhere near in range to be still in contention for Abu Dhabi. And while Ferrari is in a much better position to keep this title fight going until the final round, McLaren holds all the aces and could seal the deal at Lusail.
The permutations are complicated as they involve four cars, each with the potential to grab the fastest lap point, too.
The headline figure is that McLaren needs to leave Qatar 45 or more points clear of Ferrari to be assured of the title.
A gap of 44 points could also do the trick, however, if McLaren wins on Sunday. That would mark its sixth grand prix win of the year - it is currently level on five with Ferrari, but a sixth win would leave McLaren with an edge in the case of a points tie. Ferrari would have to match that sixth win in Abu Dhabi to score the requisite 44 points, but would then lose on countback of second-place finishes.
Replicating the 1-2 from the sprint would guarantee McLaren the title on Sunday, regardless of Ferrari's finishes or the fate of the fastest lap point.
McLaren needs
- 15 more points than Ferrari on Sunday if it doesn't win
- 14 more points than Ferrari on Sunday if it wins
F1 points system
1st: 25
2nd: 18
3rd: 15
4th: 12
5th: 10
6th: 8
7th: 6
8th: 4
9th: 2
10th: 1
FL: 1
