There have been far more ‘future’ world champions in Formula 1 than actual world champions.
Only 33 drivers so far having won the ultimate prize in more than seven decades. By definition, they are a rare breed. Many, many more have had the ‘future champion’ tag bestowed on them by pundits.
McLaren team principal Andreas Seidl was asked about the suggestion Lando Norris was shaping up as a future world champion recently. His initial response was to laugh, not because he doesn’t consider Norris to be capable of winning a title in the future – in fact, he then went into a lengthy explanation of his qualities – but because of the impossibility of being so certain about such things.
“Well, in general I have to smile,” said Seidl. “If you read all the comments from the last 12 months, we have a lot of future world champions at the moment on the grid.
“I’m questioning where all these guys will drive because there can only be one champion each year.”
Seidl is right that opportunity is part of the equation. After all, three drivers have shared the last 11 titles and, at best, there have only been four seats that offered the machinery to go for the title during that period. But there is a more significant factor.
World champions are also rare simply because it is profoundly difficult to win the title even with the right machinery. Of the 33 who have won the title, the vast majority have been in the gold-standard bracket who have been tested to the limit in their pursuit of the title.
To see the difference between those few occasional elite level drivers and those who are ‘merely’ very good – but still operating at a sky-high level – you need only look at Mercedes since 2017. Lewis Hamilton is an all-time great, and alongside him Valtteri Bottas is performing well. Yet he hasn’t come close to putting together a world championship challenge.
There’s no disgrace in that, it’s simply that he’s in the class of driver that only wins a title in favourable circumstances – in a strong car in the absence of a gold-standard team-mate. His group is one that includes many multiple grand prix-winning drivers – some of them have managed to nick a world championship, some came close to doing so.
There was a time when Bottas was seen by some as a potential world champion, and with good reason. “Potential”, of course, is a better word than “future” as it eliminates the certainty.
Every time a driver climbs a rung of the ladder in terms of challenge, they are tested to even higher levels and Bottas has passed the test at every level except the final one. You can’t be certain how drivers will react until they face that situation. Some thrive in the intensity of competition, some – more – fold.
This means that even if drivers do get the opportunity that Seidl talks about, it’s far from certain they will be able to turn it into a world championship or three. Norris has made a strong start to the season, showing a renewed consistency and incisiveness and he is on a trajectory that could perhaps take him to that level, but it’s not something that can be said with certainty.
On the current grid, there are three proven world champions – Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel – so who would you be willing to hang your hat on as a cast-iron future world champion?
Max Verstappen is the obvious choice, but only now is he being tested in a championship fight for the first time. But even if he doesn’t prevail this year, it does seem inconceivable that he won’t win a title – and surely multiple world titles.
The other standout name is Charles Leclerc. He’s impressively fast, has a string of stunning qualifying laps and race performances to his name yet also hasn’t ever been in the title hunt. He looks every bit the future champion, and yet he has made a few too many mistakes while chasing results in lesser machinery, perhaps most painfully in Monaco last weekend.
He’ll probably cut that out in a title-chasing situation, but we can’t be certain until he’s tested in that scenario.
The other interesting case is Daniel Ricciardo. He is a driver who deserves a run at the world championship but has never had the opportunity to do so. At 31, he still has some time on his side but as he’s admitted in the past, the clock is ticking.
Of all the possible champions on the grid, he is perhaps the one that is most suited to Seidl’s comment about opportunity. And it could well be down to the McLaren team – where right now he’s struggling – to present him that opportunity.
To this you could add the drivers who are flirting with establishing themselves among the stars of the next generation, which includes Norris, George Russell and Carlos Sainz Jr. The law of averages states that all these named drivers can’t win titles and chances are the majority of them won’t – but they have a huge amount of ability and the right approach.
Hamilton exemplifies how rounded a driver you must be to be a champion. Yes, he’s had the good fortune – it would be more fair to say good judgement – to be at Mercedes at the right time but for the most part this season he has demonstrated that capacity of speed, brilliant race execution, adaptability and intelligence that is required.
Yet even Hamilton has had his bad moment, with the off while lapping Russell at Imola that would have cost him far more but for the intervention of the safety car/red flag that allowed him to restart on the lead lap and recover to second place. That illustrates the fine margins that can play a part when it comes to winning titles.
Usually, the cream rises. And while external forces can impact the number of titles racked up, usually those drivers who show signs of being in that calibre do get an opportunity to test themselves.
That’s the joy of following Formula 1. There’s the opportunity to see drivers with prodigious talent – and the vast majority on the grid have enormous ability – develop and evolve to the point where we discover if they have the ultimate prize within their capabilities. There is endless fascination in seeing the infinitesimal differences between a true superstar and a driver who is almost, but not quite, at that level.
That’s why there’s more who can legitimately be called potential world champions, but a far lesser number who are future world champions.
