The longer Red Bull must wait for its early-season driver change to pay off grandly for either of its Formula 1 teams, the more curious a predicament it faces.
Neither Yuki Tsunoda nor Liam Lawson have pulled up trees since swapping seats from the Japanese Grand Prix.
Tsunoda has been an improvement on what Lawson offered Red Bull in the first two grands prix, but is yet to come close to supporting Max Verstappen. He has a best qualifying result of eighth, a best finish in a grand prix of ninth, and has scored just seven points in five grands prix and a sprint.
Lawson has fared even worse at Racing Bulls, where he looks a clear second-best to impressive rookie Isack Hadjar, and is still yet to score a point this season.
An argument could be made for both being under pressure: Tsunoda from Hadjar, and Lawson from Formula 2 rookie Arvid Lindblad, who scored his first win of the season in the sprint race at Imola. But Tsunoda should have until the end of the year and Lindblad is ineligible for a full superlicence until he turns 18 during the summer break, so Lawson is safe until at least then.
So, both drivers have time to rectify their unconvincing starts in their new positions. And it has been unconvincing at best - after only five races, which should normally be well short of the time period in which drivers get properly judged in new situations, but is two-and-a-half times as long as Red Bull needed to supposedly definitively rule on Lawson's prospects as a top team driver.
Both would have been expected to make more of an impact by now. But if either is coming under pressure it's Lawson, rather than Tsunoda, who seems to be more exposed (again).
Red Bull is preaching patience with Tsunoda after promoting him and demoting Lawson after just two rounds, despite the small worry that Tsunoda's progress in terms of turning potential into meaningful performances when it matters seems to have stagnated a little.
There was the obvious setback at Imola of a massive crash. And although he took advantage of the safety car interruptions to recover to 10th from a pitlane start, he's consistently scrapping for minor points positions. And his Red Bully tally of seven points is the same as Hadjar has managed in the same period at Racing Bulls.
However, some additional context is key. Red Bull knows its RB21 is quick but difficult, with Verstappen a uniquely capable driver.
It also knows it is far from ideal for Tsunoda to be learning this car's inherent behaviour, and how it responds to certain changes, in the confines of race weekends. And he's in the classic second driver position of receiving upgrades later than Verstappen (and for the Imola race had the self-inflicted trouble of going back to some older specification parts following his crash).
Plus, even though the yield has been low so far, and the results look no better than what Sergio Perez was dropped over last year, what Tsunoda's done has still been an improvement on what Lawson showed in his limited sample set with obvious potential for the trajectory to improve over time. There have also been flashes of speed in practice and parts of qualifying that indicate Tsunoda really can get a tune out of this Red Bull.
Hence, Red Bull not viewing Tsunoda's form as an immediate problem, even though it knows it must improve quickly to give Verstappen any kind of assistance in fighting for the world championship (Red Bull accepts the constructors' championship is gone already).
Tsunoda is a happier, more focused, better presence in the Red Bull garage and Lawson's not under an intense spotlight, being chewed up by a situation he's losing control of. In that sense, Red Bull may think the driver change has already been justified. And it probably has.
But it is yet to really pay off and the longer it takes for Tsunoda to assert himself as a frontrunner at Red Bull Racing the less confidence Red Bull will have that he can actually do it - and the greater the risk it finds itself in a 2020/Alex Albon situation, waiting and waiting to see if its own driver puts it together before having to look elsewhere for a stop-gap solution.
A bigger, short-term concern is Lawson, as Lindblad offers a more immediate threat. There is presently no reason to think that Red Bull will consider swapping Tsunoda with Hadjar, for example, whereas a mid-season Lindblad promotion is not out of the question if Lawson toils.
Red Bull has already decided he was not top team material (and has never reappointed a demoted driver to Red Bull Racing) so if he cannot make enough of a contribution at Racing Bulls why wouldn't Red Bull look to blood its next prospect? At the very least, Lindblad should start to appear on the F1 radar more with Friday free practice outings, which could further his cause.
"I don't feel any pressure from anyone, I want to win, I want to be in Formula 1," said Lindblad at Imola. "I want to win world championships, I've had that goal since when I was five when I started this journey.
"I just sort of push myself to perform and on the free practices, I don't know, you'll have to talk to Red Bull."
What comes next will come down to Lindblad developing well in F2, and impressing in any F1 opportunities he does get, as much as it will Lawson's F1 form.
Lawson is clearly second-best to rookie Hadjar at the second team. He is yet to score at all in 2025, and all of Hadjar's points have come since Lawson became his team-mate - so Lawson's poor results cannot be dismissed as a car performance matter.
As with Tsunoda, it's a matter of what Red Bull is willing to put up with and for how long. Except Red Bull's got less to lose swapping out a rejected driver in its second team than it has changing Verstappen's team-mate again - well, unless Verstappen leaves, then it's in a whole other world of driver decision pain.
The logical assumption to make is that Tsunoda will get more time than Lawson. What's less obvious is what either of those timelines may look like. Lawson's, though, is surely more pressured.
The rest of this triple-header and the remainder of the European season (after the intruding Canadian GP) will be important in defining the outcome. Ludicrous as it seems to be talking in such terms after just a handful of races, this is Red Bull, and there is an established enough trend to state that performances and results must improve.
If they do, both Tsunoda and Lawson will be in control of their own narratives. If they don't, Red Bull's decision makers will surely start to wonder if there will be one or two more driver problems to confront soon - assuming that dilemma hasn't crossed their minds already.
