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MotoGP seems to be getting younger by the minute and has five rookies ready to make their debuts this year. In theory, that should create either a bottleneck or a scarcity of top-level talent in the lower classes of grand prix racing.
For now, it definitely looks closer to the former than the latter, as Moto2 and Moto3 appear absolutely chock full of prospects. Some of them looking very close to being MotoGP-ready, while options outside the grand prix paddock are also considerable.
You may be familiar with the concept of the draft that American sports rely so heavily on, in which teams take turns selecting young hopefuls. The sporting value of taking the agency of selecting their team out of a sportsman’s hands can certainly be debated, but in each of the USA’s main sports it is always a cause for much excitement and hype – and we couldn’t help but want to have a crack at the format.
The four participating MotoGP writers have been tasked with picking out riders who they believe stand the best chance of making the premier-class grid in the coming years. They did so over four rounds, with the order for rounds two and three reversed, in order to make it the fairest possible.
The rules are as follows – firstly, every rider around with fewer than three MotoGP career starts qualified to be selected, with the exception of the five rookies about to make their 2022 debuts.
Secondly, the riders were to be selected with a view of at least one full-time (or mostly full-time) season rather than standalone substitute appearances.
Thirdly, while the ultimate goal was to pick out riders who will make MotoGP sooner or later, in cases where writers felt the chances were relatively even between two candidates they were asked to pick the one who they feel is likelier to get to the premier class first. However, the actual longevity and the success of any future premier-class career did not come into play.
Our panel
Valentin Khorounzhiy, The Race’s deputy editor
Simon Patterson, The Race’s MotoGP correspondent
David Gruz, freelance MotoGP writer
Paolo Ianieri, La Gazzetta dello Sport’s MotoGP reporter
VK: So, I have carried out a draw of the order and you will see in a second that it was not rigged. Simon is the lucky recipient of the first overall pick, followed by David, Paolo and myself. Then we will invert for the second round, re-invert again for the third round and invert again for the final round. Round one, pick one, Simon Patterson, you are ‘on the clock’, as they say in American sports.
SP: So, I’m going to cheat basically and say the obvious answer. Pedro Acosta [Spain, age 17, KTM Ajo Moto2]. It has to be.
VK: Yeah, that’s about what I expected. I think there were a couple of options for the first pick, but Pedro really is, I guess, the very obvious one.
SP: I mean, it’s basically a given that the guy is going to MotoGP, right? He’s pretty much the most automatic next MotoGP rider- he’s probably the most automatic next world champion that’s not already in MotoGP, let alone the next MotoGP rider. Super obvious choice. I don’t think anyone doubts that he is going to be a MotoGP rider within two seasons.
VK: Did how well he went in the Portimao test influence your choice?
SP: Even how well he went the first time – I was there on his first day with the Moto2 bike in Jerez, and even that day he looked comfortable, he looked like a Moto2 rider from the very first day of riding it. And then obviously going into Portimao and dominating the test there as well. Yeah, easy one.
VK: Is he on all of our draft boards then as number one?
DG: Was for me.
PI: Yeah, was for me as well.
VK: Yeah, me too. Although only because of the Portimao test – before the Portimao test, somebody else was number one.
DG: Same.
VK: All of us expecting him in MotoGP next year then?
SP: Not sure yet. I don’t know if he’ll do one year or two years in Moto2.
PI: It’d be better two years. But if he wins immediately…
SP: Even Marc Marquez decided to stay for two years. He probably should’ve won his first year, until the eye injury. But he still decided to stay. And I think Acosta sees that.
VK: Well, that was straightforward. Pick two, round one – David Gruz, you’re ‘on the clock’ – but, again, there is no clock.
DG: So, can I take my sweet time thinking it over then?
VK: Please no.
DG: My pick is going to be Ai Ogura [Japan, age 21, Honda Team Asia Moto2]. Acosta aside, he’s maybe the most all-round talent left and he’s already in Moto2 at this point, and also of course his nationality is very attractive – MotoGP very much needs a Japanese star, given Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki… Takaaki Nakagami is not the superstar Japan needs, and we’ve seen so many Japanese youngsters in Moto2 and Moto3, and basically none of them have really done too much. But Ogura from basically his first race in Moto3, he just showed he’s the next Japanese star, and there’s no doubt I think that next year or in 2024 he’ll join MotoGP and prove he belongs there.
VK: Did the Portimao test influence that pick for you?
DG: Not really. He wasn’t really that spectacular in the test, it’s just the 2020 Moto3 title fight he was part of – of course he didn’t win it but I think he was basically the most consistent rider in Moto3 that year, which is already very telling, and last year, if Raul Fernandez wasn’t there too, Ogura would’ve been such an amazing rookie, he was overlooked because of Fernandez.
VK: For me Ogura was pick three on the board. Everyone else had Ogura going in the top three, top four?
PI: Yeah.
SP: Yes.
VK: Is that partly because we expect Nakagami to make way for him?
PI: Yeah, because of that, to me. Because they will need to replace Nakagami with someone else.
VK: Do you think there is a situation where Nakagami’s 2022 season is good enough to delay Ogura?
PI: If he starts to make podiums, yeah. But he hasn’t managed to so far. If he steps up, he has a chance.
VK: Paolo, round one, pick three.
PI: Toprak Razgatlioglu [Turkey, age 25, Pata Yamaha World SBK]. I think it’s pretty obvious he should be coming, and he should be doing it pretty fast. He wanted to win the Superbike title, he did it. He might win it again, but then if he wants to make his career, he has to step up. And he’s already 25, so he doesn’t have that much time to lose.
PI: The only thing is, will he get the Yamaha or whatever? He wants a factory bike, Franco Morbidelli has a contract.
VK: You think that’s a legitimate demand, or just the management trying to put the price up?
PI: I think that’s what he’s going to ask for, for sure. I mean, if he does a good season, he might also go to other companies, manufacturers. Depends a lot on him. But if he’s coming as a world champion, he should ask for an official bike, not a satellite bike.
VK: Razgatlioglu was for a long time number one on my draft board, before the Portimao test, because I think he’s just such an obvious fit for a MotoGP seat.
PI: Yeah, he was one of the first two for me.
DG: For me, maybe I rate a couple of Moto2 talents a little bit higher – I’m not going to name them because they’re not picked yet. Maybe he’s a second-round pick for me. Because World Superbike, when was the last time we saw somebody make the step from there?
VK: Ben Spies, I think.
DG: Yeah, that makes it a little bit less obvious for me. But it’s true that if anybody’s going to succeed from WSBK, it’s probably going to be him.
VK: Well, round one, pick four goes to me, and with pick number four I pick Aron Canet [Spain, age 22, HP40 Pons Moto2]. He just looks quick enough for MotoGP, I know there have been questions over whether he’s too wild, too aggressive, his reputation in Moto3 wasn’t always the most stellar – but he’s too fast to be overlooked by the premier class, and especially now after the Portimao test I have very little doubt that sooner or later Canet… I don’t know how long his MotoGP career is going to be, but this is not about longevity, this is about getting a MotoGP chance, and I think he’s good enough for that.
VK: The top four me was really really clear – it was always Acosta, Toprak, Ogura, Canet in some order.
PI: Yeah, more or less.
DG: Canet would’ve been top four for me as well, yeah.
VK: And I also get pick number five, because we’re going in reverse. So, with pick number five, I pick my personal pet favourite for a few years now, Augusto Fernandez [Spain, age 24, KTM Ajo Moto2]. He has a very, very good Ajo KTM ride right now, I think he’s going to win a ton of races this season with that package, and I think the season is going to be good enough for someone to take a punt next year. I don’t feel super confident about Augusto making it soon, but because of this Ajo ride I feel there’s more of a chance for him than for others – and I do think he’s fast enough. He’s had a couple of off seasons but at his best in Moto2 I was really impressed.
DG: He’s kind of an underdog, in that he didn’t come from Moto3 – I always like those guys, too, those that come from Spanish Moto2, come with a perceived disadvantage and still prove themselves. Love those guys, very much a fan of Augusto.
SP: I think he’s clearly talented, he’s just not put it all together very consistently as of late. It’s there.
VK: There’s not a lot of places in KTM…
SP: Yeah, that’s the problem.
VK: …but in the end, when you’re a long-time Moto2 frontrunner… even Tom Luthi got his MotoGP season eventually. So I think it happens sooner or later.
DG: OK, so 15 years from now!
VK: Round two, pick number two.
PI: I go with Tony Arbolino [Italy, age 21, Marc VDS Moto2]…
VK: Yeah, he was pretty high on my board.
PI: …because he’s shown he has speed, he’s been growing. If he matures and has a good head, and is well-managed by Carlo Pernat, who’s not the stupidest manager in the paddock by any means. We’ll see. He could’ve won the title in Moto3, he did a couple of decent races last year. He might get it done.
VK: He risks being overtaken by some of the other Italians in the pipeline potentially?
PI: Maybe. He needs to approach things more professionally – it’s his big limit. He’s a funny guy, but you have to show more dedication. That’s his weakness to me.
SP: He reminds me quite a bit of Fabio Quartararo in his Moto2 days, that kind of ‘young and unwise but fast’ thing. And that worked out OK for Fabio. So I wouldn’t rule Tony out too much because of how he carries himself, and I think once he settles into Marc VDS especially, that team will mature him because they’re such a professional bunch, and he’ll come out of this year fairly comfortably ready for a MotoGP ride.
DG: Yeah, I agree. Maybe he needs two or three years but I think he’ll be ready for MotoGP eventually.
VK: Good pick. I like it. He was seventh on my board. He’s been training with Jorge Lorenzo too a couple of years back, that will have been useful. Well, David, round two, pick three?
DG: Okay, well, I’m moving into Moto3 and I will pick Sergio Garcia [Spain, age 18, Aspar Moto3]. And I think it’s criminal he’s stayed in Moto3, I think if not for Acosta clearly he was- well, actually, I guess Dennis Foggia was the second-best rider in Moto3.
VK: I don’t know, I honestly think Garcia was before he got hurt.
DG: Yeah, but Foggia got so good in the second half. But in any case I would pick Garcia over Foggia. Garcia sometimes was making mistakes and was maybe lacking a bit of aggression compared to Acosta, but otherwise he already looked pretty perfect. And I think he was more than ready to move up to Moto2, and I think when he gets there he will at most need two years and by the end of his second season he’ll be ready for MotoGP. I think he’s going to be the next Spanish wonderkid, let’s say, after Acosta.
VK: It’s a really good pick. Simon, you and I were really surprised when Garcia ended up staying in Moto3 for 2022?
SP: Yeah, shocked! I thought he was absolutely going up, and I think it was only sort of weird politics and movement that stopped it from happening. I think he’ll regret that – I think it’s better to spend one more year in Moto2 and one fewer in Moto3 than the other way around. I would’ve taken any option I could’ve to move up. It’s probably slowed him down getting to MotoGP by a season. But then that might not be a bad thing either, because there’s a bit of a backlog of riders looking to get into MotoGP at the minute, isn’t there? In some ways it kind of clears the path for him a little bit. But yeah, he’ll be in MotoGP, he’s too good not to be.
VK: It is pretty amazing that of the three guys that fought for the Moto3 title, one of them – Acosta – is on the path to MotoGP, while Garcia and Foggia are stuck in Moto3. Neither of them can feel really confident as Moto3 title favourites this season because the other guy has also stayed. Simon, round two, pick number four…
SP: I am going to go out of the MotoGP paddock completely. Andrea Locatelli [Italy, age 25, Pata Yamaha World SBK].
PI: That was also one I had.
VK: Was not on my board, but I thought about it.
SP: He’s been super, super good on that Yamaha. Obviously not quite on the top level on that bike yet but he’s looking well on the way to it. He’s young, he’s got grand prix experience, he knows what prototype bikes and stiff tyres are like. There’s that photograph, isn’t there, that keeps doing the rounds of him as team-mate to Joan Mir and Quartararo at Leopard in 2016. Those two are maybe not his level but he’s very very good. And he knows how to ride a big bike now, which is what none of these guys know how to do, they don’t know how to deal with that amount of power the same way that he does. So, for me – maybe an outsider pick but I think a sensible one.
Moto3 teammates in 2016…
Separated by eight points at the top of the @MotoGP Championship 😱@FabioQ20 and @JoanMirOfficial have come a long way since the Leopard days!#CatalanGP pic.twitter.com/mqZ9dta0JO
— MotoGP on BT Sport (@btsportmotogp) September 28, 2020
VK: I think that season will not have been possible without the season that Locatelli had in Supersport, right? When he won, like, every race?
SP: Yeah, but Supersport’s a really strange class at the minute, it’s really hard to pick people out from that, but what he showed when he moved across is that he’s the real deal.
PI: He was more or less around the same draft position for me, too.
DG: He honestly did not cross my mind!
VK: Round three, pick one. Simon Patterson, it is you again.
SP: Another left-field Italian pick – Romano Fenati [Italy, age 26, Speed Up Moto2].
VK: He was on my board, yeah.
PI: For me it’s a bit too late for him.
SP: Yeah, that’s the only thing, that it is a bit late. But everything else – like, he’s obviously super-super talented. He obviously had anger management issues in the past, I think he’s got them under control. But the crazy thing about his whole career is, his entire career is defined by two or three minutes. He’s not one of those riders who has a reputation for being particularly hard to work with, he’s just a guy who does stupid things.
VK: Beyond the brake lever grab on Stefano Manzi, he did also get kicked out of Valentino Rossi’s academy!
SP: Yeah, for apparently throwing a remote control at Uccio Salucci! But there’s those really dumb things he does – if he didn’t do the dumb things, his talent is enough that you’d let the rest of it slide. I think now that he looks to have it under control, he deserves a chance. I’m so glad he has a Moto2 chance this year. And you look at him, he’s not built like a Moto3 rider, he’s built like a MotoGP rider. He’s built like Cal Crutchlow – short, stocky, big arms, he’s going to be able to wrestle around a bike quite well. The physicality will be much less of an issue for him than loads of the other guys.
VK: The reason Fenati was on my board but not very high up is, I agree it’s probably too late but it might not be if he’s world champion at some point. Again, I’m going to say it and this is not a swipe at Tom Luthi, because I really like Tom Luthi, but even he eventually got his MotoGP chance. It was a terrible chance, he hated every minute of it, he scored no points – but he did race a season in MotoGP.
DG: I didn’t have Fenati on my board but I agree he would be an amazing redemption story for MotoGP, I think Dorna would love it, if he’s solid enough in Moto2 I think there will be a chance.
VK: He’s 26, that’s MotoGP retirement age!
SP: Feels that way at the minute, yeah.
VK: David Gruz, round three, pick number two.
DG: Man, I don’t have these left-field picks. I’m going to go with the boring one again. After picking Garcia, I’m going to pick his rival Dennis Foggia [Italy, age 21, Leopard KTM]. I feel like there’s obvious downsides with him too, seems like a discipline question, distractions from outside, but I think his skill ceiling is quite possibly top three across Moto3 and Moto2, and I think we saw that in the second half of last year, that when everything is put together and he has a decent bit of experience and focus, he just seems unstoppable. Kind of reminds me of maybe Andrea Iannone. The sheer talent alone should get him to MotoGP – how good he’ll be there and how long he’ll be there are different questions.
VK: The two sides of the Foggia coin are – one, the Leopard Moto3 team had to put out a statement about his father being barred from the team’s premises last season after Dennis himself complained. And the second side is that, after that statement and apparent impasse with the squad, he was comfortably the best rider on the grid for the rest of the season, absolutely incredible. Eight podiums in the final 11 races overall – so, yeah, that pick makes a lot of sense. I’m not sure he looked a terrific qualifier – so that might be an area to work on – and he has four seasons of Moto3, same as Acosta and Garcia combined. But yeah, he looked good, impressed me a lot.
SP: He was on my board, around the same position. He’s another racer with the standard racer curse of a father who causes a stir. See also Maverick Vinales. But yes, I think he needs to grow up and he’s getting a little bit old for someone who needs to grow up, but if he can do that, he’s got the talent.
PI: I was going to pick him now! He’s fast, he’s got a decent attitude – I think that part has improved, he’s less cocky.
VK: Round three, pick number three, Paolo!
PI: I have two possible options. But I’m going with Celestino Vietti [Italy, age 20, VR46 Moto2]. He’s been showing some progress – let’s see if this season he steps up in qualifying. In race pace he’s shown potential. He might make it.
VK: Vietti was number six on my board! But I picked four and five – and somehow still nearly got the chance to select him! I guess I’m just a believer in the Rossi pipeline – clearly the guys that he gets close enough to MotoGP, they tend to get in, sooner or later. And Vietti looked good enough last year to become a MotoGP rider one day. How soon, I don’t know…
SP: He wasn’t on my board of 16 people!
DG: I was definitely going to pick him next if he’s still available. I’m just not sure how many Rossi proteges MotoGP can still take!
SP: Yeah, that’s exactly my reasoning.
VK: It’s Rossi, he can fill out the whole grid!
DG: Two Marquezes, and the rest all Rossi’s juniors.
VK: So, end of round three, fourth pick. I’m going to go with… ooh, it’s a tough one. Well, not that tough. I’m going to go with Izan Guevara [Spain, age 17, Aspar Moto3]. He just really impressed me last season. And ultimately, in the second half of the season he really just was not that far away from Acosta. I know everyone’s been blown away by Acosta but this was a really good Moto3 rookie class. And yeah, the one win he did get was a little bit weird in the end, with the red flag countback negating the mechanical failure on his bike. But he was reliably quite close to team-mate Garcia, and he did beat Acosta to the CEV Moto3 title in 2020. So, seems pretty straightforward to me – he was eighth on my draft board.
PI: I didn’t have Guevara actually.
DG: I had him. He was like Ogura in Moto2, in that he was clearly an amazing rookie but just outshone by an even more amazing rookie. The one thing I remember is the Austin race, after the mechanical failure and before the countback win, the camera showed him screaming and chucking a chair. But he’s really young, he’s got time to grow out of it.
VK: We’ve thrown so much stuff at each other over the years, David, how could you possibly dock anyone points for that? The stuff in question was wet McDonalds fries.
DG: I kicked your shoe against the ceiling once.
VK: Anyway, me again with the pick, and I have my draft board, but this is difficult. Oh I’m going to hate myself for doing this… with the first pick of round four, I select Fermin Aldeguer [Spain, age 16, Speed Up Moto2]. The testing convinced me! And he’s young, he followed an unorthodox path through the Spanish CEV Moto2 series, won the title there in super-convincing fashion last year. We don’t know much about his talent ceiling yet. He’s a risky play but one that can pay off in very unexpected ways.
DG: You stole my pick! He’s one of the two riders on the Boscoscuro, alongside Fenati, and in testing he’s looked like he will be punching above the bike’s weight this year.
VK: Paolo, round four, pick number two.
PI: He may have missed the train, a couple of times, but if they want an American in there, it might be Joe Roberts [USA, age 24, Italtrans Moto2]. It has been quite a deflating 2021 season for him, we were expecting much more. I don’t know if he has what it takes, but I think he’s the only American who could come in on short notice if they want one. But with the quality we have, it might be pretty difficult for him to break in. But if I have to choose one, it’s him, because of the passport.
VK: I had him, pretty high up. Obviously he pretty famously passed up the Aprilia chance for 2021.
DG: I didn’t have him.
SP: I had him, but he’s not my top American – I’ll look to pick that one next.
DG: Not unless I do! … No, I won’t no. Pick number three, round four… oh God. Okay, well, this is going to be a bit of a desperation pick – I’m going to pick Lorenzo Dalla Porta [Italy, age 24, Italtrans Moto2].
VK: Wow! And I see Paolo is shaking his head vigorously.
DG: I think people have completely forgotten that he was a Moto3 champion, and I guess there’s good reason for him, but he was hit by injuries in Moto2, I don’t think we’ve seen his best at all. I think he’s going to improve a lot, become at least a solid Moto2 rider. I think if he can get back to his Moto3 level, he can make it to the premier class.
VK: So, before David’s pick gets crucified, I should say I at least considered Lorenzo for my shortlist. I liked him in Moto3 a lot, I think his title season was more impressive than, say, someone like Danny Kent’s, and Danny Kent did have his MotoGP offers. I really liked Dalla Porta’s title-winning campaign, I just really enjoyed his riding.
PI: He’s a great worker, he works a lot, he’s not the biggest natural talent. But he’s too short for MotoGP, he already has problems with Moto2. I think the MotoGP bike might just be too big for him. He just doesn’t fit properly on the bike.
VK: I thought they all wanted to be as short and lean as possible.
PI: But if you look at him, his size is more or less the same as Dani Pedrosa, and Pedrosa did have his problems with that.
VK: Simon, you get the final pick of this wonderful draft. Who do you pick?
SP: Garrett Gerloff [USA, age 26, GRT Yamaha World SBK]. American rider, there’s obviously a push to have an American on the grid again, and he’s one with grand prix experience, with MotoGP experience, with big-bike experience, and rapidly turning into a good World Superbike rider. Right now, with Joe Roberts’ form falling off, and Sean Dylan Kelly still to come through, and with Cameron Beaubier being a bit on the older side, I think Gerloff is where the Dorna American money will land, to put him on the grid.
VK: I didn’t have him on the board, but that’s just because I decided to limit myself to one American and settled on Roberts.
PI: Simon probably has the better American choice, really!
VK: David, did you have any Americans?
DG: I didn’t really have any Americans. I probably would have picked Beaubier because he was pretty interesting last year. If Dorna does want an American rider, maybe he’s the fastest solution.
VK: So, let’s have a look at our teams in full.
VK: My line-up is all Spanish. Whoops. But honestly, these all seem pretty even to me – I’ll take that, because I picked last! So, the final question is – who did you expect to be selected who didn’t end up being picked?
PI: Michael Ruben Rinaldi [Italy, age 26, Aruba Ducati World SBK], perhaps?
VK: Interesting. He didn’t enter my mind, but he’s pretty good.
SP: The next one on my list would’ve been Jake Dixon [UK, age 26, Aspar Moto2]. And it’s not because I think Jake is obviously deserving, but it’s the American thing again. There’s quite a big Dorna push to put a British rider on the grid, and he’s the best British rider for that at the moment.
VK: Helps that he had a really good Portimao test.
SP: Yeah, exactly. And it helps he has credible MotoGP experience as the Petronas Yamaha stand-in, and knows how to ride a big bike from his British Superbike days, too.
DG: I was going to say Dixon, too. I was never going to pick him, but I expected that somebody would.
VK: I expected Simon to pick him number one.
SP: Dixon, John McPhee, Jonathan Rea as a top three!
DG: Aside from that, there are some names who are clearly talented, but we know there are some factors working against them.
DG: Like Jorge Navarro [Spain, age 26, HP40 Pons Moto2] or Jaume Masia [Spain, age 21, KTM Ajo Moto3] or maybe even Jeremy Alcoba [Spain, age 20, Intact GP Moto2, pictured above], maybe they were last-round candidates.
VK: Yeah, there’s question marks over them because of their lack of clear upward trend. I had all of those guys on the board. The big surprises for me – yeah, Dixon, obviously… Albert Arenas [Spain, age 25, Aspar Moto2], because I think just a year ago when he won Moto3 there was a lot more optimism over him making MotoGP, but he is a bit on the old side. Honestly, Daniel Holgado [Spain, age 16, KTM Ajo Moto3, pictured below], the CEV champion, he looks really good, and clearly KTM has seen something with him by putting him in the factory Ajo Moto3 team.
VK: Another guy who I think deserves some form of mention – I’m surprised we didn’t pick Scott Ogden [UK, age 18, VisionTrack Moto3].
SP: Too young to bet on just yet. I actually did have John McPhee [UK, age 27, Husqvarna Max Moto3] on the list, because I know that he is quite similar data-wise to Ogura, and he’s been talked about as a potential bloomer in Moto2.
VK: For Xavier Artigas [Spain, age 18, Pruestel GP Moto3], I guess it’s the Leopard question mark from last year, sometimes that package makes riders look better than they maybe are.
SP: Yeah.
VK: But I’m still pretty high on him. He was on my board. And, finally, Deniz Oncu [Turkey, age 18, Tech3 KTM Moto3, pictured below], I think he had a really good season – but I guess with Toprak’s emergence, he’s less of a priority.
SP: The other name that I thought Paolo could mention is Lorenzo Baldassarri [Italy, age 25, Evan Bros. Yamaha World SSP].
PI: No, I think his time has passed.
VK: Alright, that’s it for our experiment. Thank you, guys, for your enthusiasm, thank you David for picking Dalla Porta as the proper wildcard choice. Cheers!
