MotoGP is on the cusp of a particular 10-season streak: having the reigning Moto2 champion on the grid in the premier class every single season. But getting to that 10-season mark in 2026 looks touch and go.
It's been close to not happening a couple of times already since Johann Zarco stepped up as a two-time Moto2 champion after 2016.
A few years later, Alex Marquez already had a deal to continue in Moto2 as champion when Honda called him up as the replacement for the suddenly retired Jorge Lorenzo, and a couple of years after that Augusto Fernandez looked likely to miss out regardless of the outcome of his title race when KTM suddenly stopped the Remy Gardner project to promote him instead.
Other years have been straightforward. This one almost certainly won't be - even if the standout rider of the current Moto2 campaign gets it over the line.
That rider is Manu Gonzalez - World Superbike paddock export, fourth year in Moto2, just turned 23, championship leader. Spanish. That bit's relevant.
If you want to maximise your chances of succeeding at the outset, you'd rather be Spanish than not-Spanish. Spaniards are 1-2 in the MotoGP standings, 1-2 in the Moto2 standings, 1-2-3-4-5 in the Moto3 standings.
They obviously don't have some sort of DNA predisposition for grand prix racing - they're just the cream of the biggest, most-advanced, best-prepared talent pool.
That helps up to a point. Then, at that point, it can start to hurt.
Gonzalez said when asked by The Race at Brno about his 2026 situation that his manager "has been in touch with some teams in MotoGP" already.
"But we still need to continue working on this, and win more races," he mused, laughing. "I have to do this, as I'm Spanish - I have to win more races.
"Today, I wanted to win, we made a podium [instead] - so we'll win in Austria!"
Don't read it as a callout to anyone else - it doesn't have to be. It's just the way things are. Gonzalez is right on that borderline of a CV that demands MotoGP.
He isn't a can't-miss prospect. But if he were from an important, underserved TV market, he would be. He waltzes onto the 2026 grid - maybe even the 2025 grid - in that case.
Let's interrogate Gonzalez's MotoGP credentials some more. A title challenge in year four of Moto2 is OK, not spectacular but can be promising enough. A championship position progression of 16th-eighth-third in the preceding campaigns is right what you'd expect.
Four wins this year is good, and all four by around 1.5-2.5s, all four without any lead changes in the second half of the race. The very basic statistics are reasonably convincing.
Moto2 2025 laps led (top five)
Manu Gonzalez - 76
Aron Canet - 38
Jake Dixon - 37
Deniz Oncu - 36
Barry Baltus - 17
Moto2 2025 average race position (top five)
Aron Canet - 4.7
Manu Gonzalez - 5.1
Barry Baltus - 5.5
Diogo Moreira - 6.6
Jake Dixon - 7.7
The race position deficit to Aron Canet - another Spanish rider who maybe would've been in MotoGP already with this same level of performance and a different passport - is entirely down to Gonzalez running slicks in the wet at COTA to hideous effect, without which his average would be 3.7 instead.
A crash into Barry Baltus at Silverstone was another blunder, but the 25-point buffer over Canet feels about right.
"There were some tracks like Austin and Silverstone that we would've been fighting for the win if [errors] never happened, but all riders can say this - that they have errors in races," says Gonzalez.
"I'm happy about what we did, eight podiums out of 12 is two thirds, to win four out of 12 is good for us. We will work for sure to get more."
👀 The Trackhouse Aprilia RS-GP with Manu Gonzalez's number decal - and he's already out there on track for his #MotoGP test debut pic.twitter.com/MM0XqFlGM3
— The Race MotoGP (@TheRaceMoto) June 9, 2025
Gonzalez also clearly turned heads over how quickly he got up to a respectable pace on a MotoGP bike after he was called up by Trackhouse Aprilia for the Aragon test to replace the injured Ai Ogura.
He isn't a 100% must-have prospect like a Pedro Acosta. Most on the Moto2 grid aren't. In fact, in a vacuum you can say the same about Diogo Moreira: a younger option three places and 60 points back, one who's already fielding known interest from Yamaha and reported interest from Honda, too.
Moreira doesn't exist in a vacuum - he's a Brazilian prospect on the cusp of a championship about to bring back its Brazilian Grand Prix. And Gonzalez's MotoGP future probably depends on what Moreira and interested parties in the premier class decide about his viability for a 2026 seat, or whether he waits for 2027.
Trackhouse is set with its riders for next year - with Raul Fernandez and Ogura - but if Moreira goes to Pramac Yamaha or stays in Moto2, could Gonzalez manoeuvre himself to Somkiat Chantra's LCR seat? And if that's the seat Moreira ends up taking, is there anything at all for Gonzalez?
He could still easily lose the title to Canet, too, in which case the Moto2 champion would presumably go to World Superbike and the Moto2 champions to MotoGP streak would end also.
Their situations sum up the reality of getting to MotoGP with a Spanish passport.
You really, really want that passport to begin with - but once you're close to the premier class, being just 'one of the Spaniards' means you probably need an iron-clad case and a CV that really sets you aside you when your nationality cannot.
