This promises to be the saga extending beyond the end of the season, and IndyCar’s comparatively stagnant silly season to previous years really needs it!
Two-time champion and IndyCar pole record holder Will Power does not have a contract beyond this year. I, like many, I assume, expected this to be handled in the manner of other Penske contract renewals; there’s a bit of chat at the start of the year, it goes quiet, around the Indy 500 it becomes clear a new deal is close or has been signed, and then it’s announced sometime shortly after the 500.
That hasn’t been the case with Power, and when asked for an update by The Race at Gateway last weekend, he said: “Nothing's changed. Same scenario. I don't think anyone will know till after the season.”
It would be unprecedented in recent times for Penske to leave a decision on a driver until after the season. Helio Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud were both made to wait, but I think in both outcomes the decision was known before racing was finished.
There’s a number of factors making this decision difficult, namely Power’s performance, his age, the lack of other seats available, the lack of a clear successor (sort of) and the fact Penske has fired its president of IndyCar operations, Tim Cindric, in the wake of the Indy 500 qualifying scandal.
Let’s address those factors in more detail.
Power’s age and performance
Some might look at Power and think, he’s at the end of his contract and he’s 44-years-old, it seems like good succession planning to look at new options.
His pole last weekend was his first since mid-2023, and in the last five years, he’s won seven races (tied fourth in the series over that period), which isn’t a bad total but it's not exactly 'WOW' either.
Like any of these things, it depends what is important to you. If winning races is most important to you then Power’s record is good but not great. If we take the last five full seasons (2020-2024) Power has the same win total as team-mate Scott McLaughlin, who was not competing for one of those seasons and was in his rookie year in the next, not taking his first win until 2022.
And, Josef Newgarden in the other Penske car has 17 wins to Power's 7.
If we shift the years to 2022 to be a bit more fair on McLaughlin, Power drops to four with McLaughlin on seven and Newgarden on 11.
In the same three season period, poles is a similar story, McLaughlin has 10 to Power's seven and Newgarden's 3.
However, if you don’t care as much about race wins or poles, and care more about the standings at the end of the year, the picture is quite different.
Newgarden’s massive number of wins only adds up to an average points finish of fifth, again, taking 2022-2024 to ensure McLaughlin’s stats are relevant. Power’s average is four while McLaughlin’s is 3.33.
I don’t want to get too much into changing race results based on bad luck etc, because that’s a black hole, but I do think it’s relevant to point out that despite McLaughlin finishing ahead of Power in the points last year, Power was Alex Palou’s only realistic rival and only dropped from second to fourth because he had to retire from the last race of the season.
Had he finished second without the loose seat belts which cost him so dearly, he would have been second and have the best average points finish across that time for the Penske drivers.
So, Power is at a point in his career where he’s not winning as many races or poles consistently as he once was. But it's a toss-up between who might finish higher in the points between Power and McLaughlin and Power is the team’s most recent champion from his success in 2022.
So would moving him on be sensible? For long-term planning, yes, of course, if a suitable replacement is found. For short-term success? Not in my book.
He’s easily done enough to warrant a new short-term deal at Penske, and that might well be the case, he might be driving for Penske next year. But it feels rare for the team to wait this late and certainly not until the end of the season. Not recently, anyway.
There's just enough uncertainty surrounding this deal to make you think this isn't like the usual contract renewals being handled behind closed doors at Penske with an inevitable outcome.
Lack of options for Power
A recent rumour that McLaren had made an offer for Power was totally false. It was one of those situations where you gather good sources who independently confirm the information, but it’s likely all of those sources heard/took the information from the same incorrect source, spreading the misinformation as they went, unintentionally.
McLaren will stay with its current line-up for next year and that’s confirmed.
I raise this to show that Power doesn’t have the help of another big seat as leverage for his Penske deal. Penske can wait as long as it wants to renew Power really, because Power has no other options at a top team for 2026.
Andretti’s drivers are all under contract, Ganassi is unlikely to change, McLaren is set, so the rest of the teams you are looking at are not at the top table, even if they occasionally sit there.
Penske can wait to see who has a strong season and make an informed decision. It’s rare for top teams to get this opportunity as they’re usually competing in a deep market and sign drivers halfway through the year.
Is Malukas the right fit?
There are options in the market for Penske, but none of them are a clear ‘pick them over keeping Power a bit longer’ option. At least, not in my opinion.
Ever since he signed for the Penske-affiliated AJ Foyt team for this year, David Malukas has been held up as Power’s successor by many.
I’m not sure it was ever a deal done in that black and white way, that Malukas was supposedly signed by Foyt with some sort of Penske interference so that it could take him for 2026. Malukas might end up a Penske driver in 2026 but my understanding is it’s never been that intricately planned.
Malukas is a talent and is especially good on ovals which will appeal to Penske. That doesn’t mean he isn’t strong elsewhere.
The biggest problem with Malukas is, he isn’t proven in a top team. Is he good enough? He looks it, but there’s never a guarantee a driver is ready for a Penske or a Ganassi seat.
We would have had the same debate about Alex Palou and look how that turned out.
Malukas is a podium finisher and has shown flashes of speed in scenarios where he's faced more adversity than most drivers will in their career. Every time he's come back stronger.
But for a sign of how far off competing at Penske's level Malukas has been so far, last weekend at Gateway in one stint he eclipsed his total of laps led in IndyCar in his 52-start career. His previous total was 33 laps led, and at Gateway he led 67 laps in a single race.
Personally, I would have liked to have seen Malukas beat Santino Ferrucci more comprehensively to say ‘YES, GET HIM IN THE PENSKE CAR RIGHT NOW!’. But he’s adapting to a new team and his weekends have generally been more consistent than Ferrucci’s. It hasn't helped Foyt has had a difficult start to the season on both cars.
If Power were moved aside, I think Malukas is good enough and deserves the chance to show what he can do. There's only one way to find out!
The other options on the table are slim.
If you’re Penske, I doubt you’re going to bring in someone from a different series or who has been sat on the sidelines - like Theo Pourchaire, Linus Lundqvist etc - I’d expect them to sign from within the current IndyCar grid.
Who are the other options?
Given its umbrella company also owns the series, Penske has to be extremely careful about how it approaches other teams’ contracted drivers, and of the top talents, there aren’t any on the market for 2026 that wouldn’t require a significant buy-out.
Outside of Malukas, Rinus VeeKay could be an option. He’s been in excellent form for Dale Coyne and is a race winner in the series, but how much his stock rises will depend on how long he can keep his form up. I could see VeeKay being snapped up by a good team, but I’m not sure going straight in at Penske is plausible.
Again, it depends on his second half of the year.
The two Prema drivers are too good to be fighting lower down the grid and could be options. Robert Shwartzman might have the edge because he’s a rookie and has outperformed Callum Ilott including with his Indy 500 pole.
But Ilott was admired at Penske in the past and is showing a really mature approach to how he’s gone about trying to help this team build from the ground up with his experience.
Dennis Hauger is absolutely lighting up the Indy NXT Series and looks a dead-cert for IndyCar next year. But I can't recall the last time Penske hired a driver straight out of a feeder series, if ever?
The lack of clear options elsewhere is further support for keeping Power, and making a play at a big name out of contract in the future.
Penske’s team boss situation
Power is reportedly negotiating his next deal directly with Roger Penske after Tim Cindric’s exit.
I don’t anticipate Power is any more or less likely to get another deal negotiating with Penske than Cindric.
While Cindric will have handled previous deals, of course Roger would have been looped in and part of the decision-making progress.
It does just add an extra layer to the story though. Is it one of the reasons for the delay, that losing Cindric, Ron Ruzewski and Kyle Moyer from its senior leadership team means replacing them is the priority before it works out a Power deal? Because Roger Penske wants the next IndyCar team president to at least be a part of the decision-making process, or at most, lead that process and identify that candidate?
That would certainly explain why Power thinks it could be post-season when he finds out his fate, for all of these pieces to fall into place. And that would certainly tally with my feeling that Malukas is not as big a shoo-in for the seat as some people have made out to be, or at least not for 2026.
An additional note is that Power is absolutely box office.
Whether he’s ramming Kyle Kirkwood down the track at Detroit, making rapper Flavour Flav of Public Enemy fame his number one fan, sometimes criticising IndyCar rules he doesn’t like and gets somewhat fixated on, and generally just being an authentic and unique personality in the paddock, he's so entertaining.
It’s that kind of personality sporting series need, and honestly, his performances in the past have been too good to warrant losing the seat right now anyway.
