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With runaway IndyCar championship leader Alex Palou having seemingly backed out of a 2024 deal with McLaren to stay at Ganassi, McLaren now has a huge hole to fill.
After months when it seemed certain that Palou would make his desired Ganassi to McLaren move a year later than he first tried, it emerged on Friday that he seems to have decided to stay put where he is after all.
“I’m extremely disappointed that Alex Palou does not intend to honour his contractual obligations to race with us in Indycar in 2024 and beyond,” said team boss Zak Brown in a statement. “That’s all I have to say on the topic for the time being.”
That’s how he feels. But he’ll already have moved on to what he should do about it. And who McLaren should sign instead.
Let’s tackle the second question first.
REPRIEVE FOR ROSENQVIST?
The easy option would be to renew Felix Rosenqvist’s contract. The Swede – who looked set to make way for Palou – had a poor first season after joining from Ganassi but he and the car made a lot of progress through 2022 to get closer to team leader Pato O’Ward.
He’s had an unusually high amount of bad luck in 2023, but has also made plenty of his own errors, and he currently trails new team-mate Alexander Rossi by 35 points and O’Ward by 112 points, and that’s after O’Ward’s had a fair few events not go his way either.
That leaves Rosenqvist 13th in the points, after finishing eighth and 21st in his previous seasons.
O’Ward’s probably not a realistic benchmark target but brand new team-mate Rossi is and it’s clear in terms of race results at least that he’s come in and been a step ahead.
Rossi’s been pretty much error-free all season, too. His trouble has come in qualifying – where Rosenqvist has been stronger – but in the races there’s a clear winner. That’s not good news for Rosenqvist.
POUNCE FOR ERICSSON?
Palou’s Ganassi team-mate Marcus Ericsson is the best free agent on the market and now McLaren’s best option on the table.
He’s also someone Brown has discussed in public before, when Ericsson’s looming free agency from Ganassi was becoming a regular talking point.
Asked if he was interested in ‘stealing’ Ericsson away from Ganassi back in May, Brown replied: “First of all, I don’t think people steal things. I think people lose things.
“Marcus has done an outstanding job. I’ve known him from Formula 1 for some time. He’s very humble. He’s earned it. He’s done an awesome job, won the Indy 500, has led the championship for some time.
“Yeah, he would definitely be under consideration if we decided to do a fourth car [it’s now clear McLaren doesn’t plan to run a fourth car next year].
“I think he’s probably the top free agent, so I’m a little surprised given how strong things are commercially [in IndyCar], reading the quotes that his current team doesn’t have the commercial confidence that they can sell an Indy 500 [and] championship contender and sign him up.
“I understand they probably have a little bit of time, so I’m sure they’re working at it.
“But I wouldn’t let him go if he was driving for me and I would have the commercial confidence that I could get the sponsorship.
“But that’s not my issue. So if he does become a free agent and we do want to run a fourth car, he would definitely be heavily under consideration.”
The fourth car is now irrelevant. McLaren has an opening within its existing three. Ericsson would certainly be The Race’s top candidate.
As we’ve repeatedly said through this silly season, Ericsson hasn’t proven he is as fast as Palou or others over one lap – although his qualifying has improved dramatically year on year – or won as many races as the Spaniard.
But he has been one of the only drivers to have been as consistent as Palou, and adding a second Indy 500 winner to its portfolio would be big for McLaren commercially.
His rate of improvement despite being at the elite end of the grid is fantastic, too.
If Ericsson isn’t available because he stays with Ganassi next year (seemingly the most unlikely option at the moment) or sticks to the prevailing sources’ opinion in the paddock that he’ll join Andretti Autosport, it would be hard to see McLaren not giving Rosenqvist another year while it makes a big play for another top driver for 2025.
That would make a lot of sense because at the moment McLaren is running three cars and a fourth at Indy out of a factory really only big enough for two full-time cars.
In 2025 it is set to move to Andretti’s old base where it has comfortably run four full-time cars and even six at Indy in more modern surroundings.
THE TIMING PROBLEM
With Brown’s ambitious driver recruitment approach, McLaren could be an enormous player in the 2025 market. Race winners Kyle Kirkwood and Christian Lundgaard appear to be the future of the series and they could both be available for 2025, as could others.
It’s highly unlikely at this stage that McLaren would look beyond Ericsson and Rosenqvist for 2024.
But another problem it faces is timing. The likes of Ericsson and Rosenqvist are unlikely to want to have to wait until the Palou situation is resolved and put all of their eggs in the McLaren basket and miss out on seats elsewhere or risk being totally without a seat when there are so many options as of now.
That’s why McLaren needs to resolve the Palou situation rapidly, or at least sign someone in the next few weeks to cover the seemingly likely solution that Palou isn’t on the way.
That’s why Rosenqvist might be the most convenient choice as Ericsson isn’t short of interest from the top teams, while Rosenqvist could probably wait a while longer before making his call for a team like Rahal Letterman Lanigan or Meyer Shank Racing.
ILOTT’S THE BEST WILDCARD
Outside of Ericsson and Rosenqvist, there are a couple of options it could consider.
Callum Ilott would be one, as he’s also under the Chevrolet umbrella at Juncos Hollinger so McLaren will have access to a bit more information about him, and he has been fantastic over two years without an experienced team-mate in his IndyCar career. Plenty of people in the McLaren group will have worked with the ex-Ferrari F1 test and development driver too.
He is unproven and might not guarantee better results than Rosenqvist, but putting a younger driver with a high ceiling in to give them a chance to show what they can do could be a great option, and Ilott’s capable of winning races in IndyCar.
REPERCUSSIONS EVERYWHERE
With the planned salary for Palou now going spare, McLaren could also look to buy-out a top driver that isn’t on the silly season market. Brown has not been scared to be bullish in his bids to sign drivers, especially from Ganassi, that’s another tick in favour of Ericsson, although obviously he is readily available.
It’s fairly obvious how this move impacts the rest of the IndyCar teams, too. We’re fairly sure David Malukas is on his way to Andretti, but depending on if Andretti renews Romain Grosjean’s deal, it has a seat there that is earmarked for Ericsson but a McLaren bid for him would mix that up. Perhaps Ilott would be in with a shout there too.
If it couldn’t sign Ericsson, it feels more likely Andretti would sign Grosjean again, but that situation is unresolved.
Rosenqvist will be high on RLL and MSR’s shortlists among others, so what happens to him impacts a few teams.
All in all there are still 10 or more drivers who could shuffle around in this off-season and how McLaren resolves its new conundrum will impact all of those in some way, shape or form.
MORE LEGAL ANGST AHEAD?
The other question we asked is how does this get resolved?
Palou has a period of exclusivity lasting until September 1 in his original Ganassi contract, details of which were released in the Palou/Ganassi court case last year.
Brown claims Palou signed a contract with him, has been paid, and has had millions invested in him in the shape of F1 testing.
There’s the small matter of Palou being McLaren’s F1 reserve driver and he was expected to get FP1 outings later this year, too!
It’s clear McLaren have a right to be aggrieved that it has invested so much in Palou already and is now without the 2021 champion right at the end of silly season.
It’s ironic that Ganassi was in a similar situation last year where Palou declared he was moving to McLaren while still under contract at Ganassi.
Sources have also indicated that Brown helped Palou with his legal fees in Palou’s case with Ganassi last year, implying a level of personal backing from Brown as well as from McLaren, the company.
If anyone is affable enough personally to pull such a move on Ganassi, do a U-turn and then stay at that team for the following year without destroying relationships, it’s Palou. The majority of the Ganassi team has loved him before, during and will do after this affair is over, however it is settled.
It’s hard to imagine Brown and McLaren will feel the same, and how it could walk away without some form of compensation for all it has put into Palou.
He’s used the opportunity to be a champion at Ganassi, jumped ship for F1 chances at McLaren, taken the F1 chances and then jumped ship back to Ganassi.
It’s not the expected behaviour of someone as delightful a person to talk to as Alex Palou is. But here we are, with another twist in the saga which promises to dominate the IndyCar headlines until it is resolved.
Significantly, Palou has now split with his management group during all this. He took on Monaco Increase Management – which has been seen chatting to F1 teams frequently in recent months – not long before last year’s decision to move to McLaren kicked off, but now he’s seemingly back to being backed by ex-IndyCar driver Roger Yasukawa for now, according to the IndyStar.
“Monaco Increase Management is bitterly disappointed to learn about Alex Palou’s decision to break an existing agreement with McLaren for 2024 and beyond,” read a statement on Saturday morning.
“Together, we had built a relationship that we thought went beyond any contractual obligation and culminated in winning the 2021 Indycar crown and tracing a path to F1 opportunities. Life goes on and we wish Alex all the best for his future achievements.”
WHERE F1 FITS IN
On the face of it, it’s easy to see why Palou has made this decision. It’s clear there will be no seat at McLaren in F1 in 2024 and maybe not in 2025 or 2026 either with Lando Norris established and Oscar Piastri impressing.
Also, McLaren’s IndyCar team is yet to win a race this year – something the likes of Rahal Letterman Lanigan has managed to do – and while the team is better than it has shown with lots of potential, it’s not consistently operating at Ganassi’s level.
With no clear F1 chances, it’s logical Palou should want to stay at the team he’s likely to win the IndyCar championship with.
How he plans to do that is spectacular in nature, and it will be fascinating to see if he manages to get his wishes, as he always has done in IndyCar previously.
