What's really going on with Miami F1 lightning risk
The risk of rain and thunderstorms hitting the Miami Formula 1 track on Sunday has triggered plenty of intrigue about what impact this could have on the grand prix – with there even being some wild stories about potential cancellation.
But while there is no doubt that lightning would disrupt running, the reality is that the danger of the event being abandoned is not as great as some have made out.
The situation revolves around local laws that dictate what must happen if there is a lightning threat.
Advisory information from the National Weather Service states that there are certain circumstances under which events should be stopped.
They are if lighting can be seen, if thunder can be heard or even if the skies look threatening.
In the event of a lightning event, the guidance is for everyone to go inside – which would force the F1 race to be red-flagged and marshals and spectators to find shelter.
The National Weather Service states: “There is no place outside that is safe when a thunderstorm is in the area. Stop the activity immediately and get to a safe place immediately. Substantial buildings with wiring and plumbing provide the greatest amount of protection.”
So while that would be disruptive, that situation is still quite a step removed from the need to cancel the race.
Miami organisers are well versed in terms of what action needs to be taken if there is a lightning strike, and the FIA has been in consultation with them based on the forecasts.
The Race understands that the most likely outcome is to put into place a similar action plan that was agreed last year in terms of what the FIA would do if lightning hit - which is republished in full at the bottom of the page.
That action plan revolves more around simply red flagging running before a move to restart is made, rather than abandoning the event altogether.
An FIA spokesperson said on Thursday: “We are closely monitoring the weather forecast for this weekend. Having faced a similar situation last year in Miami with threats of thunderstorms, we have a contingency plan in place and will activate it if needed to minimise disruption to the on-track programme.”
Medium risk
The weather threat right now is not as big as some have suggested.
Although weather forecasts for the Miami area have highlighted the potential for thunderstorms on Sunday, the latest detailed data from the FIA currently points to there being a medium risk of things being impacted.
As of Thursday morning, the track-specific forecast points to a 50% chance of rain – with temperatures predicted to be around 28C.
There is potential for heat hazard criteria to be reached with it acknowledged that a weather front could bring with it rain and thunderstorms.
The FIA also has the power, should the forecast worsen over the next 48 hours or the timing of the storm’s arrival change, to alter the timetable for Sunday to avoid the worst of the weather.
This has happened at other grands prix in the past when either races or qualifying have been shifted to take place in timing slots that are clearer.
The race in Miami is due to start at 4pm, with sunset around 8pm, so there is plenty of time to get enough running in play if a storm front blows through.
Any rain that hits the Miami weekend would be many drivers’ first experience of the 2026 cars in the wet.
Some of the January Barcelona test week and some teams’ filming and shakedown days were rain-affected, but all the main tests and all grand prix sessions so far have been dry.
Pierre Gasly said Alpine’s wet shakedown at Silverstone in January had been “the most extreme I've ever done in my life, so after that I feel pretty prepared for any conditions I'm going to face”.
“I expect it to be very challenging if it's wet,” he continued.
“ I’m prepared for it, I know what to face, I know how to do it, how to maximise and make the best out of anything that would happen. And I know I'm pretty good in these conditions, so personally I wouldn't mind it.
“But it will be a pretty special race - and especially here on the wet I think it's quite tricky like in terms of grip conditions, aquaplaning, the bridges, you have a couple of traps that you need to stay away from, but I think will bring some good opportunities.”
What the criteria said last year
The lighting threat for the Miami Grand Prix is a repeat of a similar headache experienced last year, when forecasts pointed to the risk of thunderstorms on Sunday.
While the threat did not materialise, the action plan that the governing body gave to teams is likely what will happen this time around.
Here is what the FIA said would happen 12 months ago if lighting occurred.
· The race will be suspended in accordance with Article 57 of the Sporting Regulations, all cars must return to the pitlane and stop in the fast lane as described in Article 57.2.
Once all cars have returned to the pitlane, teams will be informed using the official messaging system that cars must be pushed from the fast lane and returned to the teams’ garages. Garage doors must remain open until otherwise instructed. For the avoidance of doubt, any car which was in their garage at the time the race was suspended, or that is moved from the fast lane to any other part of the pitlane without or prior to such instruction being given will be arranged at the back of the line of cars before the resumption in accordance with Article 57.3 or 57.5 respectively.
· Whilst the cars are in the teams’ garage the provisions of Article 57.4 shall apply. For the avoidance of doubt, cars may be worked on once they have stopped in the fast lane, whilst they are positioned in the teams’ garage, or once they have returned to the fast lane prior to the resumption, but any such work is restricted to that listed in Articles 57.4b) i) to x) and must not impede the resumption of the race.
· Once the Race Director is satisfied it is safe to resume the race, and no less than 18 minutes prior to the expected re-start time, the re-start order will be published. At such time, under the direct supervision and instruction of the FIA Technical Delegate or their representative:
· Each team will be instructed, in turn, to push their car(s) into the fast lane such that cars may be arranged in the fast lane in accordance with the published restart order.
· Once all cars included in the restart order are arranged in the fast lane, any car not included in the restart order will be released from their garage and may line up at the back of the queue of cars in the fast lane in the order they get there.
· Once all cars are arranged in the fast lane or have been given the opportunity to join the back of the queue in the fast lane, the resumption time will be announced using the official messaging system. In all cases at least 10 minutes warning will be given.
Beyond the above, the FIA added procedures for what happens if the lightning arrives during the start procedure:
· The start will be delayed in accordance with Article 46 of the Sporting Regulations.
· Teams will be informed using the official messaging system that all cars, on the grid or at the end of the pitlane, must be pushed from their location and returned to the teams’ garages. Garage doors must remain open until otherwise instructed.
· Once the Race Director is satisfied it is safe to resume the starting procedure, Teams will be informed using the official messaging system that cars must be pushed from their garage and returned to their allocated grid positions. Cars that were returned to their garage from the end of the pit lane may be pushed back to the end of the pit lane and must line up in the order they were in when the delayed start was announced.
When all cars have been returned to the grid, or to the end of the pit lane, the starting procedure will begin again at the 10 minute signal.
