Speculation about a potential Max Verstappen move to Mercedes went wild in the gap between Formula 1's British and Belgian Grands Prix when social media got into a frenzy over an alleged meeting between the world champion and Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff in Sardinia.
Triggered by some location data that showed the yachts of both Wolff and Verstappen had been harboured in different places around the Italian island, the rumour mill got rolling very quickly.
Images were soon circulating on Facebook, Instagram and X to accompany stories that there had been a get together between the pair that was a precursor to a deal being readied for 2026.
The only problem was that the images were fake, and the meeting never happened.
A cursory glance at the photos already pointed to some aspects that did not make any sense.
Why was Verstappen wearing an F1 pass around his neck? Why were they being picked up by a minibus with Dutch number plates? And why were they accompanied by current Ferrari deputy team principal Jerome D'Ambrosio?
The answer to all of these questions came from tracking down the original source of the images, which was a video posted on YouTube by a private jet spotter of Wolff leaving the 2022 Dutch Grand Prix with D'Ambrosio – who then worked for Mercedes.
As can be seen in the footage, the person that is supposed to be Verstappen is not him at all. It is former F1 driver and then Sky pundit Paul di Resta, whose head had been photoshopped out and replaced.
Other image manipulation that was alleged to show Wolff walking into Verstappen's private plane came from shots of him entering his own jet – which is a completely different type and colour.
Speaking this week about the trigger for the latest round of Verstappen rumours, Wolff admitted that a story getting legs because of fake images was something he had not had prior experience of.
"What's new is that people are doing photo collages with airplanes," Wolff told Austrian broadcaster ORF. "We've never had that before."
Wolff was clear that there had been no meeting with Verstappen – and it was not really that unusual for F1 people to be taking vacations in popular places.
"If you spend your holidays close to each other, it doesn't mean that you're going to work together in Formula 1," he said.
"We have always got along well and by chance we like to spend our holidays at the same places."
Speaking at the Belgian GP on Thursday, Verstappen said the first he heard about a meeting was when the stories cropped up.
"I was swimming in the ocean at the time," he said. "I don't know, I don't really care about those things.
"I went on holiday with my friends, my family, and when other people also are there at the same time, yeah, that can happen.
"I mean, there are more people on the island than just me and Toto. If you go to the same island, it can happen."
Keeping options open
While a meeting between Verstappen and Wolff never took place, it would be wrong to say that dialogue between the four-time world champion's camp and Mercedes has not been ongoing.
Sources have suggested that there have been recent chats between Verstappen's manager Raymond Vermeulen and Wolff – but these very much revolve around laying out a clearer understanding between both parties about what their mindset is for the longer term future.
So this is not about a shock 2026 move – unless a black swan event got the ball rolling on that. Instead this is all about considerations for 2027 and beyond.
Getting a clearer picture on that from Wolff's perspective has clearly influenced decisions about the futures of his current drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli.
Because if Wolff locks down Russell and Antonelli for the long term, then there would be no room for Verstappen – and he could risk losing a once in a lifetime opportunity to grab the Dutchman if he decides his future is outside Red Bull.
It is a situation that Russell and Antonelli have been well aware of – and something that Wolff has admitted to sitting there in the background.
"The direction of travel is that we want to continue with George and Kimi. That is the first priority," said Wolff in the ORF interview.
"But you can't look past someone like Max and the plans he has for the future. We did that, but I don't think there will be any big surprises."
So while there does not seem to be much doubt about both Mercedes drivers staying for 2026, beyond that things are more open.
Verstappen's exit route
While Verstappen has a contract in place at Red Bull until 2028, it is widely known that he has performance clauses in his contract that do allow him a way out if he wants.
Sources have indicated that he can become a free agent for 2026 if he is outside of the top three of the drivers' championship heading into the summer break.
Right now, with just the Belgian and Hungarian Grands Prix to go, the Red Bull driver is sitting in that third spot that will lock him in for next year.
If he does not drop down the order then he is officially off the table for Mercedes unless a big money agreement is made with Red Bull.
The only driver that can realistically knock Verstappen out of the top three is ironically Russell, who sits 18 points behind him in the standings.
Russell would need to finish comfortably ahead of Verstappen in both races to close down that margin and beat him. It is something that is not impossible but is unlikely.
But even with the exit clause possibility there, it is understood that Verstappen was always likely to stay at Red Bull anyway for 2026 – simply because of the uncertainty about car form across the grid next year.
Jumping anywhere for the start of the new rules era would require a leap of faith, and getting that move wrong could prove costly to an F1 career.
Logic dictates that it is better to see how the land lies when the cars are running in 2026 and then decide where the focus should be.
This especially makes sense because it looks much more likely Verstappen will be a free agent for 2027, because it is understood his performance exit clause is triggered next year if he is outside the top two.
This scenario of longer term uncertainty is exactly why Verstappen says that the change of team boss at Red Bull, with Christian Horner being replaced by Laurent Mekies, has no impact on whether he stays or not.
"I don't think it will matter at all for my decision in the future," he said. "At the end, the only thing that matters is that we work on the car and make it as fast as we can make it, really."
Russell less stressed now
The far from defined future for Verstappen has left Russell playing a waiting game for his new contract – and he now does not expect things to be sorted before F1 is out for summer.
"The intention was always pre-summer break," he said about the timing of any contract decision.
"People go into summer and do you want to get something sorted [then]? I mean, realistically, is that going to be the case? I don't know.
"There is still no contract on the table, so to have something done in the space of two weeks is unlikely, and it's got to work both ways."
But while his life would have been much easier if a contract had been firmed up by now, Russell says he has actually come to terms with the situation.
And, in particular, has learned that there is little to gain from being worried about things – as he confessed he had been earlier in the year.
"These last months, I've gone from a position where I was stressed about my future and I was concerned about it, and I've continued to perform," he said in Belgium.
"I just think: it's in my own hands, so there's no point losing sleep about it. Mercedes need the best drivers in their race car, and I believe that I'm right up there.
"I don't think there's many people doing a better job than I am. So, I need them, and they need me. That's how it goes in racing."
By the summer too Verstappen's 2026 future will be pretty much locked in because of his performance clause – and Russell says there is not really an issue with everyone scouting longer term ambitions.
"The situation we find ourselves in now is, I don't think is abnormal," he said. "From my side, there is no tension, because there's two cars for every team.
"I'm performing the best I've ever performed. I have the majority of the points for the team. So if you look at the facts, you would argue my job is safe. So that's why I'm not concerned at all.
"If I stop performing, maybe I need to be concerned. But I need to be more concerned about my performance, not about my future."
