What you need to know about the growing battle for a 2027 F1 seat
Esteban Ocon's seat at the Haas Formula 1 team may be the most intriguing piece of the 2027 driver market puzzle - with the possibility of a change high.
While things aren't totally settled at the top end of the grid, most notably at Red Bull where a Max Verstappen exit hasn't been completely ruled out, Haas is one team where a seat battle is definitively unfolding already.
Only a dramatic upturn in Ocon's performances will give him any hope of staying at the team for a third year in 2027. And there are numerous candidates in contention to take his seat, with one rookie in a particularly strong position.
Forget the reports to the contrary; no final decision has been made and Haas won't rush into a deal given the driver market remains unstable and there's the possibility of sudden developments, like in the aforementioned Verstappen situation.
The knock-on effects of any move for Verstappen can be guessed at imprecisely but not accurately predicted - for evidence of that just look at how Lewis Hamilton's Ferrari move shaped the 2025 driver market. Haas wouldn't be in play for Verstappen, but its manoeuvrability could well be impacted by how Verstappen plays his cards.
What we do know is that, regardless of all that, Ocon hasn't been good enough at Haas. And while there are mitigating factors that have held him back, his future is hanging by a thread.
Realistically, the die is probably already as good as cast, and a line of contenders has gathered, waiting for Haas to commit to a change.
The new favourite
Reigning (but not defending, by series regulations) Formula 2 champion Leonardo Fornaroli has momentum on his side - emerging from the left-field as the likeliest occupant of the Haas seat come 2027.
This is despite (and also, in a way, because of) Fornaroli's existing affiliation with a rival F1 team. The 21-year-old Italian serves as reserve driver for McLaren.
Fornaroli's single-seater CV
2020 9th in Italian F4
2021 5th in Italian F4
2022 8th in European Formula Regional
2023 11th in FIA Formula 3
2024 1st in FIA Formula 3
2025 1st in FIA Formula 2
2026 McLaren reserve driver
Fornaroli made his F1 weekend debut behind the wheel of Lando Norris's McLaren in FP1 at the Barcelona Grand Prix last month. A few days later, he returned to F1 action in a two-day 'testing of previous cars' (TPC) run in last year's Haas VF-25.
This test was offered to Fornaroli by Haas to, as team principal Ayao Komatsu described it, "have a chance to look at him".
Fornaroli made a big impression in the test with his speed, feedback and professionalism. That's despite not having any opportunity to prepare for the Haas test in its simulator, and adapting to a car with very different characteristics to the McLaren machinery he had previously driven - not only the 2026 car but also the 2023 machine. Crucially, he also showed good pace on the low-fuel qualifying simulation runs.
And though he isn't racing right now, Haas has a high opinion of the preparations he is undertaking. "Clearly what McLaren's doing with Leo is a very good programme," Komatsu mused.
McLaren rates Fornaroli highly. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella described him as proactive in engaging with engineers, a note-taker who shares ideas willingly.
But none of that would matter if he wasn't quick enough. "When he gets in a car, be it a simulator, be it in the TPC car, or in a free practice one session, he is fast," Stella assured.
It's understood that should Haas decide it wants Fornaroli, there is a letter of intent in place that will make it possible. That's by no means a done deal, simply something that means if Haas does want to take him on loan then it can happen.
When Audi signed Gabriel Bortoleto, a predecessor of Fornaroli's in the McLaren driver development programme (and a good friend and former team-mate of Fornaroli's, who works under the same coach in former Formula 3 ace Roberto Streit), it took full control of him. But Haas is willing to take loan deals. That’s proved by the presence of Ollie Bearman, who is contracted to Ferrari.
None of this means Fornaroli will definitely take Ocon's Haas seat in 2027. But he's certainly a very serious contender who has made a strong case with his test performance.
The Toyota factor
Haas's partnership with Toyota, expanded for this year to include a title sponsorship, has given it access to a whole new pool of drivers, and fresh incentive to seriously consider them as options.
It announced very recently a TPC run for Sho Tsuboi and Nirei Fukuzumi, two extremely credible specialists on the Japanese scene, with Tsuboi already a Super GT/Super Formula legend.
But the primary Toyota-side option appears a different, even bigger name right now: Hypercar driver Ryo Hirakawa.
A 32-year-old who last raced a single-seater in 2023 (fifth in Super Formula) might seem an unlikely choice. However, he has racked up seven FP1 outings for Haas, Alpine and McLaren, as well as significant TPC mileage for Haas.
He's held in high esteem by the team, Toyota is a staunch supporter of his and keen to see him race in F1, and he has also shown good pace - no surprise for a multiple World Endurance champion.
Hirakawa carried out aero assessment work for Haas last time out in FP1 at the Red Bull Ring, and - at 1.4s back from regular driver Bearman - was disappointed with a qualifying sim in which he "undershot many corners" on what was "the only lap I was able to push maximum" after the aforementioned development work.
He has made no secret of his F1 seat ambition. "I think it's not like 'dreaming' but just being realistic - I'm really grateful to have this opportunity, it's not just to have experience but it's to have some opportunity in the future," he said. "I'm still, of course, 'dreaming' - but the target [right now] is to give good feedback to the team."
Other options
There's also the possibility of adding another Ferrari prospect like Bearman.
Rafael Camara, 21, is currently third in F2 - and Ferrari is pushing for Haas to take him. That doesn't mean Haas has to or will, because Ferrari has no direct say in that. For example, Ferrari was eager for Antonio Giovinazzi to race for Haas in 2023, leading to FP1 outings in 2022. However, the team decided Nico Hulkenberg was the better choice.
While it's possible Camara could get a TPC outing for Haas, there's currently no plan in place for that to happen. Likely, it would require Ferrari to fund it. Camara is also regarded as needing a little more time to hone his craft - meaning Fornaroli is ahead of him in the queue.
Yuki Tsunoda, who was of interest to Haas when it was considering options for the seat Ocon took in 2025, is also a potential target. And Haas reserve and simulator driver Jack Doohan can't be discounted given he's on the team's books.
Is Ocon doomed at Haas?
None of that is to say that Ocon is definitely on the way out. An option remains on the books for his current deal with Haas to be extended to a third year in 2027.
His time at the team so far has fallen short of expectations, but there have been high points when he has performed at something like close to his best.
For example, he was fifth on his second grand prix start for the team, in China, qualified eighth and finished seventh in Monaco last year, produced a strong Japanese Grand Prix weekend in 2026 that only yielded a point for 10th, and recovered from a tough Friday to take an outstanding seventh place in last year's Abu Dhabi finale.
But those high peaks have been scaled with less frequency during his 18 months at Haas than the rest of his F1 career. They are also outweighed by the lows.
On his most recent outing in Austria, he complained about problems with parts inconsistency robbing him of rear downforce relative to the other car. He described this as costing "quite a lot of points of downforce" and suggested this was relative to his team-mate, too.
"Apparently it comes from the floor area," Ocon revealed. "He [Bearman] has floor 13, I got floor 14, I tried floor 15, and the deficit is still there."
It is true that Haas has struggled with components not performing as expected. That's something Komatsu confirmed at Barcelona. However, he stressed that it's afflicted both drivers at times.
"Those underperforming components, imperfections, that's having a significant impact. We're not giving both drivers the best chance to perform in qualifying, for instance," Komatsu insisted.
Back in January, Komatsu said that "nobody is satisfied with Esteban's sporting results last year" and that "we expected more from him". While he included the important caveat that it was not entirely Ocon's fault and it was 50/50 team and driver, it's clear that Ocon went into the season under pressure.
He's been comprehensively outperformed by Bearman, who was on average just under a tenth and a half faster than Ocon in qualifying last year. That figure has climbed to well over a tenth and a half this year. In terms of points, he was outscored by the narrow margin of 41 to 38 last year, but this year Bearman is up 18 points to three.
The car problems mean that the performance comparison between the two has been distorted, but that doesn't mean that Bearman overall hasn't been by far the stronger driver. And that, fundamentally, is what means Ocon's facing the exit door.
Car problems are one thing, and they have happened to Ocon. However, previous teams have also been frustrated by what is regarded as a tendency to blame all deficits on that.
Last year, he struggled on the brakes and often cited that as a problem. However, there was a telling case study with Bearman - who tends to brake harder and deal with a little more rear instability on turn-in. Ocon struggled, hence his complaints about the brakes, and sometimes had to dial in a little understeer to settle the car to suit him, costing him time.
When things are right, Ocon can be brilliant. That's the brilliance Haas needs to see - and as soon as possible, in the races before the summer break, if he's to have any chance of saving his seat.
