The Spanish Grand Prix weekend seems to have started unremarkably for Red Bull and Ferrari, which are now accustomed to their 2020 Formula 1 season roles as ‘inconsistently some distance ahead of the midfield’ and ‘part of the midfield’ respectively.
However, a straightforward opening day for each team means there is no hiding place for two drivers who have started poorly.
Sebastian Vettel and Alex Albon were hoping to find breakthroughs this weekend, particularly in qualifying. They need a big step to enjoy the sort of Saturday that will provide a much-needed shot in the arm.
Both Vettel and Albon can point to various moments in the 2020 season to vindicate their own performances and argue that, despite what critics think, there’s not a great deal to be concerned about.
But equally each driver is in need of greater qualifying performance because they are compromising their own races and, especially in the last two events at Silverstone, have been nowhere near their team-mates.
In Vettel’s case, a new chassis – potentially a psychological boost more than a legitimate car performance enhancing change – and a move away from Silverstone could be what he needs to shake off a miserable couple of weeks.
For Albon, it’s as simple as race engineer Simon Rennie put it after the 70th Anniversary GP: he’s driving very well on Sundays but needs to qualify better to have a more straightforward grand prix.
But while Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc enjoyed typically strong Fridays at Barcelona, Albon and Vettel were found wanting yet again.
Albon was 0.7s slower than Verstappen after failing to hook up his fastest lap, with notable moments exiting Turn 5 and at the hairpin. Vettel was a more respectable 0.25s adrift of Leclerc and hurt by the tight nature of the midfield battle.
The upshot was Vettel 12th and Albon 13th, a result that would be damaging to both drivers’ confidence if it is repeated in qualifying.
“A bit of a mixed day,” Vettel reported. “It was generally a bit better in terms of one-lap pace today.
“In the afternoon I was struggling a little bit more to put the laps together.
“But we should be in a better place. We’ve tried a couple of things and we know a little bit more for tomorrow.”
Vettel cut a lost figure over the last two weekends at Silverstone, where he said he had “run out of answers” for his poor performance there despite making multiple changes.
Has he found what he’s looking for in Spain?
“Well not all the answers you want to get, but I think overall things were making a bit more sense,” he said.
“Friday is a bit difficult if you’re trying a lot of things and we did today, so we’ll see when things calm down hopefully tomorrow.”
Vettel did look slightly more competitive on Friday. His one-lap pace was punishingly ‘OK’, a quarter of a second slower than Leclerc. But his long runs were a bit more encouraging – he did a 10-lap run on mediums in the afternoon that was 0.4s per lap slower on average than Leclerc’s seven-lap stint on softs.
It seems Vettel is, if nothing else, immediately more settled than at Silverstone. It’s likely that Ferrari’s switch to more downforce has helped, because the rear is more stable. And Vettel sounded borderline encouraged about his prospects when asked if he felt confident about his one-lap potential: “Yeah, provided I put the laps together. In the afternoon I struggled a little bit to do that.”
At Silverstone he felt like he hit a performance wall. Here, Vettel may well have the necessary pace within reach.
“If he could start somewhere closer to the podium then he’ll challenge for the podium. But he’s been doing a lot of recovery drives in the last few events” :: Christian Horner
The midfield fight is so close that another Q2 elimination isn’t out of the question, as a tenth could make all the difference. But Vettel at least looks and sounds like someone who can find that time this weekend.
Albon’s situation is trickier to judge. It’s only natural to expect him to make a big step forward from Friday to Saturday, especially as he seems poised to undo whatever changes Red Bull made between FP1 and FP2. He reported himself happier with the stability in the morning, but in the afternoon “not so much”.
“We tried a few things, it didn’t go in the direction we wanted to,” he said.
“We’ll have a look at the data. We still want to do a little bit from FP1, but [will] go back towards that direction.”
Whatever happened, it made Albon’s raw numbers look poor. The most striking aspect is that race pace has been Albon’s forte so far, but on Friday his long runs were worse (relative to Verstappen) than his qualifying simulation – and the quali sim had errors in it.
Albon and Verstappen ran similar long-run programmes in the afternoon and Verstappen was quicker on the softs and the mediums by around a second per lap on average.
“On the long runs the car felt really nice to drive,” said Verstappen, but Albon didn’t seem to share the confidence.
Final practice and qualifying itself may well be very different. There is no lack of evidence through Albon’s short Red Bull career of him taking a difficult day on the chin and improving the next.
Red Bull team boss Christian Horner says he’d “like to see both the cars start in the top eight” and a clean Saturday will go a long way to Albon achieving that.
“His race pace has been impressive and his racecraft has been great,” said Horner. “So if he could start somewhere closer to the podium then he’ll challenge for the podium.
“But he’s been doing a lot of recovery drives the last few events and we need to get him starting more in position.”
It’s a similar story for Vettel, who was left to lament his poor qualifying performance and the difficult situation it forced him to face in the midfield at Silverstone. Both drivers need to break the cycle that’s trapped them in the last few races and stop slipping into damage-limitation mode so quickly.
In that regard, Friday probably didn’t go quite as well as either driver planned. But there’s enough promise for them to believe that the breakthrough they both seek is achievable.
What they need is a big Saturday to turn that promise into reality.
