What's at stake for Red Bull as engine decision approaches

Red Bull is set to find out before the Italian Grand Prix whether there will be any scope for it to get the opportunity for Formula 1 engine upgrades before the tail-end of the year.

The FIA is expected to announce as early as this week the findings of its second round of analysis of the performance of F1's power unit manufacturers in relation to the rules surrounding Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO).

Earlier this year, Red Bull was caught by surprise after the FIA deemed it to be the benchmark engine during the first round of ADUO auditing that covered the Australian to Canadian Grands Prix.

Red Bull was deemed to be more than 2% ahead of every other manufacturer, which meant it was the only one that would not be allowed extra dyno development time, spending, nor the ability to introduce a new specification.

It did not agree with the FIA's findings and requested the governing body check its data once again to be sure - with a review subsequently taking place.

The outcome of that review has not been released in public yet, but it is understood there was no evidence of anything that changed the FIA's opinion.

While work on the FIA review has been ongoing, the second ADUO period also concluded. That ran from the Monaco GP to the Hungarian GP.

And, under the agreement with manufacturers, the FIA has to notify them within a certain window of the outcome of its findings to ensure the door is open for the introduction of new homologation specifications.

It is understood that the deadline for announcing the result of the second measurement expires before the Italian GP next week, so news of these findings, as well as the outcome of its review into the first verdict, should be imminent.

The outcome of the second ADUO period is critical to Red Bull's plans for the remainder of the campaign because it will dictate upgrade opportunities into the winter.

If analysis of Red Bull's performance over the Monaco-Hungary period deems it to be more than 2% behind any of its rivals, then that will open the door for it to be granted development opportunities - which could allow it to introduce an upgrade before the end of the year.

If, however, it is once again deemed to be ahead, or even on equal terms or within 2% of closest rival Mercedes, then the door will be shut for it to have any extra development chances.

If Red Bull's hands are tied once again then there will be one final opportunity left in 2026.

The third ADUO period runs from the Dutch GP to the United States GP, and will be the last window for teams to get extra work in-season before things reset ahead of the 2027 campaign.

The system has proved to be controversial because while Mercedes is widely viewed to have the best power unit, the rankings are not based on overall performance.

Instead, they only take into account the internal combustion engine element of the package - where Red Bull is understood to be very competitive.

Speaking before the summer break, the FIA's single-seater director Nikolas Tombazis suggested that perhaps a new way of measuring things in the future could be agreed - as he reckoned the governing body had got it right with its initial analysis.

"Our measurement, in my opinion, has proven to be very accurate," he said.

"With that said, has everything worked fine? No, because obviously people are not happy and so on. So do we need to think about improvements in the future? Yes, I would say so."

Tombazis has played down suggestions, however, that Red Bull's rivals, having earned ADUO, would now game the system to hold back on developments and leave Red Bull trapped by never being able to improve.

This is partly true because ADUO rules do not offer any benefit for others to remain adrift as the gains are not cumulative during the season - so once you are granted extra development once that is it for the season.

"I don't think it would be convenient for you to always be below, just to sort of keep getting more opportunities," he said. "What's the point of opportunities if it isn't ultimately for you to be on top?

"I think the system is working as it was designed. I do think there are some weaknesses that we need to address in the future, for sure, to make it less time-consuming, less controversial. We do need to make some steps to improve it in the future."