George Russell's (and Kimi Antonelli's) new Mercedes Formula 1 deal has finally been announced - but it's perhaps best described as a mutual piece of bet-hedging that could still leave both free to do something different in 2027.
The Race understands Russell's contract does run into 2027, despite how it's been presented, which feels like a massive outlier with its implication that they're only committing to each other for a single season.
What does that say about both team and driver's outlook? Here's our verdict:
There's no 'have your cake and eat it' scenario
Jon Noble
Imagine having to pick between slicks or rain tyres for a race where you do not know when a storm is arriving, or how heavy it is going to be when it does arrive.
That is the kind of uncertainty that drivers and teams have been having to navigate their way through when it comes to contract renewals into the new F1 rules era from 2026.
Nobody can be sure who is going to be hot next year, and who is going to flop, as the new chassis and power unit regulations are set to shake up things in a quite dramatic way.
Commit yourself in the wrong direction and you could be locked down in a bad place for a long time. Secure yourself some freedom to move, and your place could be under threat if attractive rivals come knocking.
Russell's new multi-year contract does at least point to some security, although equally there seems to be an acceptance that everything remains on the table if the 2026 rules reset shakes up the order in F1. And that is especially true if Max Verstappen becomes a free agent.
From someone like Russell, who is delivering at his peak, there was always going to be a sense of wanting perfection from an imperfect world when it came to nailing down his future.
The ideal scenario would be keeping some options open if Mercedes isn't competitive so he didn't lose opportunities elsewhere, while at the same time also having guarantees of long-term security if it starts 2026 on the front foot. But that is very much a case of having your cake and eating it.
The reality is that everyone is in a holding pattern while they wait to see just how things shake up at the start of 2026. Is a multi-year Mercedes deal the best thing to have? No one can answer that right now.
In hindsight, the choices of where drivers should be for the new rules will be obvious; but right now it's a guessing game and nobody yet knows who has made the killer move.
More riding on 2026 for Russell than Mercedes
Scott Mitchell-Malm
Whatever the duration of George Russell's new contract, what happens in 2026 will be key.
Russell's performances this season have been good enough for 'top-line driver' status. Hence it was always more likely than not that Mercedes would need to keep him (not just want to).
Next year resets the board though. If Russell wobbles at all from his current peak, Mercedes might be revitalised in courting Verstappen, or assessing other options. Likewise if Mercedes fails to live up to paddock hype and emerge as a serious title force, Russell might question if he is in the right place.
It's not particularly original to say this, but Russell's big break ended up coming at an unfortunate time. Yes, it's made him a race winner, but Mercedes has not been at the level hoped for or expected in the current rules era.
So, who knows what awaits both if next year isn't a championship challenge? Especially for Russell, who at this stage seems to have fewer options than Mercedes might. It's possible he has more riding on 2026 going to plan than the team does.
It's hard to know the truth in this
Gary Anderson
I suppose the big question is: what else could Mercedes have done? There is no one better (if there is any better) available for 2026.
If I was Russell, I would be a bit disappointed; a one-year commitment with options is not what any driver needs to allow them to focus fully on their job. He has performed well and with a totally positive and committed attitude through these last four years when Mercedes dropped the ball, so I would have thought he deserved more respect for that.
Against the 'debatable' greatest of all time, Lewis Hamilton, he delivered. Against the new hotshot, Kimi Antonelli, he has done the same. What else can you add to that?
Perhaps we are getting this all wrong and it's Russell who wants an out at the end of 2026 if, once again, as it has done for the last four seasons, Mercedes fails to deliver a championship-winning car.
We will probably never really know the truth - F1 is not about the truth, it's more about smoke and mirrors.
Expect driver market fireworks next year
Glenn Freeman
Regardless of who has what written down on contracts going into next year, we can expect fireworks in the driver market for 2027 if the competitive order gets shaken up by the massive rule changes coming in for 2026.
We've seen this before: in 2014, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso blew the driver market up late in that season when they left Red Bull and Ferrari respectively as their dissatisfaction grew with every drubbing they took from Mercedes.
If there's a genuine shake up next year, someone high-profile is going to be driving a car way below what they deserve and, whoever that is, they will be willing to make big moves to change their own fortunes.
Now, 2025-into-2026 is the time to sit tight to see what happens next year. Don't lock yourself into a long-term deal you can't get out of, whether you are a driver or a team.
When it comes down to it, contracts are there to be broken. I'm confident we can expect driver market shockwaves next year.
More evidence of how Mercedes sees Russell
Jack Benyon
This is the most-difficult-to-untangle driver contract extension I think I can remember in recent F1 history.
Is it only 2026 that's been announced because Russell wants the chance to explore other options for 2027 if Mercedes' car isn't very good? And he's being very brave by risking Mercedes looking elsewhere or, if he has a bad season in a new ruleset, getting rid of him and there not being an equal or better alternative?
From Mercedes' side, is it only 2026 because it wants to go after Verstappen again in 2027? Or was it Russell who demanded it be this short for the above reasons?
My personal belief - and has been since I covered him in Formula 2 - is that Russell is capable of being world champion. I also think he'd be a better rival for Verstappen than Lando Norris, and perhaps Oscar Piastri - with the caveat that we haven't seen a proper, elongated battle between Piastri and Verstappen on equal footing yet, so is Russell better than Piastri? Hard to tell.
However this has played out, it doesn't feel like Russell has been an absolute 'we can't lose this guy' necessity for Mercedes. And that's silly given his performance in the car.
He made losing arguably the best F1 driver in history a mere slight inconvenience. That says it all.
