The key uncertainty that could decide Canadian GP
Formula 1

The key uncertainty that could decide Canadian GP

by Jon Noble
4 min read

George Russell’s pole position in Canada is the first time a Formula 1 pole has been taken on medium tyres since the 2020 Portuguese Grand Prix.

With Pirelli’s softest C6 compound yet again proving to be a tricky tyre to master, with higher peak grip but that being harder to unlock, Russell and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen pulled off masterstrokes in locking out the front row on the medium C5.

But while mediums were certainly the right call when it came to grid positions, the choice does not come without some risk of compromise because it has left those who used them without new sets for the race.

Normally, going into battle with used rubber against rivals who have fresh sets would be a clear disadvantage over an entire stint, and leave those on the older tyres at risk of attack.

But Montreal’s super-smooth track surface and circuit characteristics where tyre management is more about dealing with graining rather than degradation means that the situation is slightly different here.

As Fernando Alonso said after he put his Aston Martin sixth on the grid on mediums, there may not only be no downside to having used mediums - it could actually be better.

Asked by The Race if those who had used mediums in qualifying could be compromised for the race, Alonso said: “No, not really, because we still believe that the new tyres are a little bit slower. So a one-lap used medium probably is an advantage for the race start, we think.”

Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola reckoned Alonso’s theory may be valid, as a scrubbed set of mediums can offer a more stable platform for the driver.

“They are a little bit more consistent,” Isola said about a used set. “Usually, when you scrub the tyre, you take out this peak of grip in favour of a better consistency.

“So clearly, for a race where you have to manage the tyre for a number of laps with a full tank and so on, a scrubbed tyre could be a little bit better.”

But not everyone is convinced that taking used mediums into the race comes without a handicap.

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella said his team stuck to the soft tyre throughout qualifying because it was mindful about the impact on Sunday.

And he was cautious about reading too much into whether the medium was actually a better tyre for qualifying, because McLaren always knew it was going to be on the back foot at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.

“It would look like, certainly, George and Max have been able to extract performance out of the medium tyres, but in fairness they appeared fast throughout the weekend,” he said.

“So it is difficult to say if the pole position is a result of having used the medium or it's just because Mercedes, as expected, was and is very competitive at this circuit.

“There's a little bit of downside of having used the medium tyres in qualifying, because that's a set that will have to be used [in the race], and with the level of degradation that we expect for this race, this may cost a bit of performance.

“We will see what the right trade was. But when it comes to our car, not necessarily the medium was a clear winner in terms of being faster on a single timed lap.”

While the jury is out on whether new or used mediums could be the tyre to have, what Russell said will be critical to the outcome will be track temperatures.

This Canadian GP weekend has not been as hot as previous ones, which has taken the question of thermal management off the table.

But with a 2pm race start local time, compared to the 4pm time slot there was for qualifying, drivers are likely going to have to deal with a hotter track surface on Sunday compared to Saturday.

Russell reckoned that some elements of the fight at the front were very dependent on what the weather does.

“At the moment, the tyres aren’t really overheating," he said. "And any circuits we go to where the tyres aren’t overheating, such as here, such as Vegas last year, we performed really well.

“McLaren they were really on the back foot. So, it depends. It’s something literally as simple as it clouding over that could give us a two-tenth advantage over McLaren. If the sun comes out, that sort of neutralises everything.

“I’d love to say something more than that - it’s a little bit out of our hands right now.”

The uncertainties about the race, and the impact of tyre temperatures, mean that teams may need to adapt a lot once the race gets going as they plot their way through an expected two-stopper.

The quickest strategy on paper is medium/hard/hard, but things could easily shift towards a double medium route if track conditions are right for it.

And that means those who are carrying into the race better tyre options to react may be sitting pretty right now.

Isola added: “We have a situation where teams, some of them, could be flexible in changing their mind during the race if they want to swap from maybe an initial idea of medium/hard/hard to medium/hard/medium again, because they have the opportunity to do that.”

But as Pirelli's tyre allocation shows, not everyone’s allocation will allow a double medium stint if that proves to the best route.

And that could again be good news for Mercedes and Red Bull.

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