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We’re now five races into the most topsy-turvy MotoGP world championship in recent memory, and as the series lines up this weekend for round six at the Misano circuit, we’re still no closer to answering the fundamental question of going racing: who’s going to win?
With over a third of the abridged 2020 calendar already completed, it seems like all the title favourites are so far largely focused on self-sabotage, with podium success and race wins being doled out in equal measures with crashes and disastrous weekends.
Most high profile of those so far has of course been reigning champion Marc Marquez, sitting out all but one round of the year after breaking his arm at Jerez and unlikely to return to competitive action in 2020.
Unbeaten in all but one championship since stepping up to MotoGP in 2013, Marquez’s absence has thrown the entire season into turmoil as the consequences of a delayed and compressed calendar impacts the grid.
Without Marquez, the bookies’ pick has to remain championship leader Fabio Quartararo, with the Petronas SRT Yamaha rider’s double victories at the opening two rounds at Jerez allowing him to remain in the top spot despite a poor showing at Brno and a disaster in both races at the Red Bull Ring.
“I don’t feel as confident anymore” :: Fabio Quartararo
“I give my 100% in every condition and I gave 100% at the Red Bull Ring and we finished 13th,” Quartararo said after the Styrian Grand Prix.
“We can do better at Misano but Yamaha needs to work hard to fix what we want and to give us a better bike.
“Everyone is struggling, and it’s not easy to be in this situation.
“Of course we are title contenders, but I don’t feel as confident anymore.
“Things were going so well at Jerez, but it seems like every race we have more problems. Spielberg is a tough track for us, even though I had a really nice feeling there last year and finished on the podium.”
Leading riders’ standings
1 Fabio Quartararo 70
2 Andrea Dovizioso 67
3 Jack Miller 56
4 Brad Binder 49
5 Maverick Vinales 48
6 Takaaki Nakagami 46
7 Valentino Rossi 45
8 Joan Mir 44
9 Miguel Oliveira 43
10 Pol Espargaro 35
Quartararo took 50 points in the first two races and only 20 more in the following three. He’s got to step up to the mark again this weekend at Misano if he wants to maintain his now-slender title lead.
He showed in 2019 that he’s more than capable at the Italian circuit by battling Marquez for victory to the final corner. But he really needs a minimum haul of two podiums from the Misano races to show his championship intent.
Quartararo is now only three points clear of Austrian Grand Prix race winner Andrea Dovizioso. Matching Quartararo this year with two podiums, Dovizioso too has had three poor races around those.
He’s highlighted Ducati’s consistency issues by showing one weekend that he has the pace to win and spending the next struggling to get into the top five. Ducati’s woes with Michelin’s new rear tyre are still holding it back.
“My situation in the championship is good, but when you make a lot of ups and downs you don’t have control of the situation,” Dovizioso admitted when asked about the title picture by The Race after the last grand prix.
“I don’t feel we’ve got it under control and we can’t push in every race.
“This hasn’t happened to me or to us in the last four or five years, I’m struggling with it, and I’m really disappointed in it.
“No one from the first round has been consistent, which is something unusual. I don’t have the answers and I don’t like that.”
In fact, the most consistent rider of the year so far has actually been the first to write himself out of the championship back at Jerez: Dovi’s fellow Ducati pilot (and 2021 factory team replacement) Jack Miller.
“The last time I said I was a championship contender, I crashed out” :: Jack Miller
The Australian suggested at the time that, despite finishing fourth in the opening race at Jerez, his crash in the second one meant that he was out of the battle for the crown.
However, a run of consistency since then (Miller was the only man to be on the podium both times in Austria) means he’s now only 14 points behind Quartararo in third.
And despite not usually being the fastest rider at Misano – where his best finish is sixth from five appearances – he’s hoping he can repeat what he did at the Czech Grand Prix ahead of a strong finale to the year.
“The last time I said I was a championship contender I crashed out, so I’m just going to keep taking it race by race for now!” said Miller.
“Considering we struggled a bit in Brno we’ve still been consistently clawing back the points, and Austria was good to us.
We struggled at Misano last year so I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but I’m hoping that with the new asphalt we’ll be able to keep the ball rolling.
“Then we’ve got some great tracks coming up that I really enjoy like Aragon and Valencia.”
One team that has almost no hope of living up to its pre-season championship potential now is Suzuki.
Its duo Joan Mir and Alex Rins both went into the year as potential championship contenders, but their own disastrous start at Jerez meant that dream died before it really come to life.
Two DNFs from four races means that even a stunning second place at the Red Bull Ring leaves Mir back in eighth, 26 points adrift of Quartararo, while an injury that kept him out of the first race and has slowed him since means Rins is a distant 13th place.
It’s also hard to see a way forward for Yamaha’s factory effort headed by Maverick Vinales. He’s 22 points back on Quartararo thanks to his brace of second place finishes at the opening two rounds, but it’s been an unmitigated disaster for him since then.
Fourteenth and 10th at the following two races and forced to jump from his M1 at the last round after brake failure, Vinales needs to find his form again – and fast.
Even if he does, though, it’s hard to see just how he’s going to find a way to beat Quartararo considering the Frenchman’s record versus Vinales’ at the same tracks last year.
Things are even worse for Vinales’ team-mate Valentino Rossi. Back in seventh despite showing podium pace of his own at Jerez, he’s at least managed something akin to consistency so far – but his mechanical failure at the opening round is a big black mark on that record too.
Having not even won a MotoGP race before last month, KTM was not expected to be a title contender by anyone this year.
But it has stepped up to the mark in place of the Japanese manufacturers, with Brno winner and rookie sensation Brad Binder leading the Austrian charge in fourth in the championship.
He’s 21 points distant from Quartararo and paying the price for his Andalucian Grand Prix crash, but it’s nonetheless possible for Binder to pull off some more surprises before the year is out.
Misano is another track where KTM has done extensive testing, and it’s not out of the question to see him in the mix – even if he’s adamant that that’s the last thing on his mind.
“I’m not at all thinking about the possibilities – I’m just taking it as it comes because this year is insane,” he says.
“When you look at the podium every week, it’s been chaos. Some riders up one week and down another, winning one week and having problems the next.
“But it keeps things interesting, and I’m really looking forward to the rest of the year – and I hope it stays this way!”
