Don't read too much into Jaguar's headline claim that The Race has published a "speculative" story about Nick Cassidy's future: Cassidy is heading for pastures new in Formula E come the end of the season.
But exactly where is Cassidy heading? That's not confirmed - but Sam Smith runs through the options in order of likeliness.
The favourite: A mega Stellantis deal
Nick Cassidy and his management team - the legendary Julian Jakobi and his son Alexander, through their GP Sports Management organisation - are known to have strong contacts and existing ties with Stellantis.
GPSM manages Jean-Eric Vergne and will certainly have been outlining why Cassidy would be a sound investment for the automotive behemoth as it enters a transitionary phase of bringing in new brands for the 2026-27 season and the start of the Gen4 era.
A Stellantis drive is overwhelmingly the most likely for Cassidy to end up with post-Jaguar. The smart money as it stands is on him partnering with long-time friend Stoffel Vandoorne at Maserati MSG for a season in 2026 before spearheading Opel's entry into Formula E for Gen4, which kicks in at the end of next year.
The Cassidy-Stellantis theory
So, what would Cassidy and Stellantis look like practically speaking?
A Maserati move might seem a bit random and counterintuitive for one of Formula E's best performers in the context of the team being known to be in difficulty, with a recent takeover collapse and significant amount of debt within its set-up. But there are a lot of methods in a deal here for Cassidy.
Indeed, as a Stellantis-contracted driver, MSG's complex business situation would be of little consequence to Cassidy. Logistically, the Monegasque-domiciled Kiwi will only have to walk around 800 metres from the doorstep of his flat to the MSG simulator, which is located just behind the Massenet/Casino Square area of Monaco.
While a move there is not exactly to be described as a season of pain at the end of the Gen3 Evo cycle, Cassidy is still unlikely to be a championship contender in what is currently, at best, the third-most competitive technical package on the Formula E grid. With a team that is also hurting financially, looking for new investors, and about to undergo massive changes for Gen4, a big ramp-up in performance is unlikely for the 2025-26 campaign.
But looking further ahead, Cassidy will probably become front and centre of Stellantis' Gen4 development across 2026. As revealed by The Race last month, Opel is expected to take the 12th licence slot on the grid under its mothership umbrella - Stellantis - and be run by Stellantis Motorsport via its base in Satory, France. Who better than Cassidy to be a key asset for that new journey?
It is probable that Stellantis pushed for a Cassidy switch for the final Gen3 season so it can utilise his renowned technical skills to develop the Gen4 car, which will begin serious development testing over the winter of 2025-26.
Getting Cassidy's input for this period will be a key attraction, although he has never previously been directly involved with a manufacturer between a ruleset, as he was an Envision Racing employee when the Gen3 development phase was happening in 2022.
Another simple point to raise is - precisely what colours Cassidy will be attired in next season?
The future of Maserati feels very limited in Formula E. Stellantis has several problem brands in terms of sales and future prospects in electric vehicle sales - and Maserati is most definitely one of them.
The Race understands that even though there is a contract for Maserati to continue for the final Gen3 season in 2025-26, there have been some discussions of another Stellantis brand being blended into Formula E instead for one season before a fuller campaign in Gen4.
This could happen and would essentially only mean a livery-and-name change for the entry, both which are easy to action. However, at present it is believed the plan is for the Trident blue to have one final season in 2025-26.
Another key attraction for Cassidy would definitely be what a Stellantis deal might mean for his prospects outside of Formula E, too.
Presently, Stellantis-contracted drivers Vergne and Vandoorne also race in the World Endurance Championship for Peugeot, which is expected to confirm shortly that it will build a new Hypercar and continue that programme.
Cassidy has previous experience of racing in the WEC, having competed in an AF Corse Ferrari LMGTE car across the 2022 season.
A combined Formula E and WEC programme could also be on the table for Cassidy, although with Formula E's calendar poised to expand from the start of the Gen4 era it may become an obstacle rather than an opportunity.
The intriguing possibility: A Penske hook-up
The Race has already touched on the possibility of Cassidy being reunited with Penske director Phil Charles, with whom he worked extensively during the 2022-23 season, when Cassidy almost snatched the title with Jaguar customer Envision.
The two hit it off and were something of kindred spirits in working practice. Penske did hold discussions with the Cassidy camp in the first few months of 2024 and it is not known if a serious offer was specifically outlined.
A deal with Penske - while making sense on a practical level via Charles and the team's ambitions for Gen4, the constituent parts of which are still to be revealed - does have big questions against it, though.
The main one is, where would Cassidy race next season? Both Vergne and Maximilian Guenther have deals in place to race at DS Penske in the final Gen3 season. Although both are having mixed seasons at DS Penske, Vergne and Guenther aren't going anywhere - meaning that Cassidy's only real option would be to take a sabbatical. That, of course, is completely unrealistic.
Therefore, a deal with Penske, while plausible in theory, now feels a bit unlikely.
The sensational shock: Swap with da Costa
There is a kind of fantasy outlook to Cassidy being involved in a straight swap with his good friend Antonio Felix da Costa whereby he goes to Porsche and da Costa goes the other way to Jaguar.
The key word there is 'fantasy'.
While Da Costa is in a kind of middle ground at present while Porsche takes its time in letting him know if it will hold him to an option for his services for next season, he and his manager, ex-Formula 1 driver Tiago Monteiro, have certainly been looking elsewhere and one of those places will undoubtedly be Jaguar.
The opposite notion of Cassidy heading to Porsche feels tenuous for several reasons. One is that Porsche does not need another factory driver after it invested in Nico Mueller last year and placed him at Andretti.
But here's the twist. Mueller is underperforming at Andretti at the moment and despite flashes of his past excellent form, his recent shunts in Monaco (race) and Tokyo (qualifying) mean he hasn't show a marked improvement yet.
So why would Porsche fast-track him to the factory team for next season when it has a tried, tested and experienced winner in the shape of Da Costa on tap?
While the Cassidy camp is known to have sounded out Porsche in some detail, the timing feels wrong because Da Costa still hasn't been told if he is required at the moment.
That would mean Cassidy, in telling Jaguar he was leaving, would have been taking a massive gamble - and you don't take those at such a level as this or take such a chance in a particularly volatile driver market, whether you are a lynchpin of it or not.
Should Da Costa be kept by Porsche, then the big question will inevitably be who, then, will replace Cassidy and line-up alongside the contracted (until 2026) Evans.
That may be the biggest conundrum of all.
