Dan Ticktum has a big decision to make soon. Does he stick or does he twist on his presently ascending Formula E journey?
A growing stability in his outlook in Formula E is making people realise that beyond the noise he creates by the force of his own personality, he is a very attractive proposition for teams and, yes, some manufacturers now.
Even George Russell is being randomly passive/aggressive about him, in one of Formula 1's more bizarre interviews recently when he was asked if any other driver would have pulled a similar stunt to Max Verstappen's red mist-inflamed swipe at Barcelona last weekend.
“Maybe one British driver in Formula E, not in Formula 1," said Russell - which prompted Ticktum to respond in his own unique way on Instagram.
As ever, and in his own inimitable way, Ticktum has been rationalising his growth in Formula E and as a consequence has knowingly been promoting himself.
But let's not get carried away. He's only scored one podium position this season and, while that's more down to his team's lethargy in exploiting last year's championship-winning package, there's half the grid with better results and points ratios than Ticktum.
The close proximity to Porsche - via Cupra Kiro - has helped, with its director of factory motorsport for Formula E, Florian Modlinger, telling The Race last month that "when you see the sector one and sector two he did [in the qualifying final at Tokyo] I was impressed, each apex, and how smooth the steering wheel was".
But some edges are still rough.
"You see also though how close the other side is," added Modlinger, describing how in that third sector Ticktum glanced the wall and lost the pole.
But beyond Porsche there is also a potential vacancy at Nissan, possibly at Envision, and definitely at Jaguar. Should Ticktum capitalise on his recent success now or wait to see if the Kiro promise offers him genuine race-winning chances as it continues to grow?
The case for staying
"There's a lot of movement in the paddock at the moment. It's right for me to look for options and now is the time to explore those, but it's no secret that I'm very happy where I am," Ticktum said in Shanghai last week.
Ticktum's contract includes at least an option on the Kiro side for next season and it must have reinforced that recently, knowing the interest that Ticktum is receiving outside of that new-look team's dominions.
A team statement supplied to The Race said: "We've always had full confidence in Dan's ability, his recent performances are a reflection of that trust and of an environment where he's free to be himself.
"At Cupra Kiro, we've built a culture that plays to his strengths, and it’s no surprise others are starting to take notice. From our side, Dan is under contract for season 12 [2025-26], and we're excited to keep pushing forward together."
What does Ticktum make of it? "I do really enjoy being with this team and I think we're on a quite obvious upward trajectory and I think that will continue into Gen4 with the Porsche stuff."
Then some classic DT. A mix of clear thinking foresight and a handful of naivety.
"That's not for me to get involved in, but let's say this team is, with Porsche going into Gen4, going to be a very good place to be," he says.
"We're getting great support from the main team at the other end of the pitlane, but I think come next year and years going forward, if I'm to remain here, then there's no reason why I don't think we can be a top team.
"Customer teams have beaten the factory teams before. You just need the right support, the right people here, and we've got a lot of the right people here, so I think there's no reason why we can't be a very strong team in the next few years."
Does that naivety coming from thinking that a Porsche customer team will first of all be allowed to beat the factory supplier?
In a way, Ticktum is correct because that is exactly what Andretti and Jake Dennis did in 2023 when the first season of Gen3 gave it a golden opportunity.
Envision did the same to its supplier Jaguar, so why can't Kiro do it in 2026-27, when it will be much more at ease with the Porsche way?
The short answer to that is Porsche has learned. It knows that occasionally its customer teams will get better results and there is a win in those teams helping with points towards the manufacturers' title. But a sustained beating? Never again.
In the above comments, Ticktum appears to confirm that Porsche will continue to supply Kiro next season. That tallies with The Race's understanding too. But a third entity for Porsche to supply is also on the horizon in the shape of Penske.
Should that deal come off then it isn't hard to see the wall of technical (Phil Charles) and business/political (Jay Penske) minds at Penske slapping Kiro into submission and a Porsche/Penske collaboration becoming the predominant force.
To cover this off, Kiro has to expand and expand quickly. It is hiring and has hired new staff. But more than that, it has to show Porsche in the remaining five races of this season that it can at least seriously challenge for a victory.
That's when Ticktum might want to look at the bigger picture. The major question here and now though is, does he have the luxury of time?
The case for going
Ticktum and Jaguar have had conversations recently as the quest to fill a sizeable Nick Cassidy-shaped hole is under way.
On paper it looks and feels like a very uneasy fit. Ticktum would be a big risk for Jaguar on many levels, and it would also have considerable jeopardy for Ticktum himself.
Going into a team with an incumbent driver - Mitch Evans - who next year will have been ensconced for a full decade, will not be easy. And when that driver is one of the best operators in the paddock, it will take time to even start to carve your own niche in the team.
Cassidy was clever when he did the same.
Yes, he had the experience through a successful 2022-23 season at Jaguar-powered Envision. But Cassidy also approached his first manufacturer gig with a perfect mix of his own technical and operational confidence and a humbleness to revise and engross himself in Jaguar's way.
Would Ticktum do the same?
"I think another misconception is how am I to work with as a team-mate," says Ticktum.
It's a fair point because all the team-mates he has had in Formula E - Oliver Turvey, Sergio Sette Camara and David Beckmann - he has all got along well with and worked constructively alongside.
"It's in my best interest to support my team-mate and support the team," he adds.
"If you look at all the drivers who've won the championship in recent years, they've almost always had a strong team-mate who's either finished second or third or whatever in the championship, so they definitely need a strong unit."
And what a unit, on track, Ticktum and Mitch Evans would be. Asked directly about racing alongside Evans, Ticktum adds: "I don't think there's anyone on this grid that's better than me.
"I think there's a couple of people that are going to get very close. I respect Mitch a lot. I'd be happy with anyone here [in the paddock] to be honest."
So, we know confidence won't be a problem for Ticktum heading to a manufacturer. But beyond Jaguar, does an option really exist?
Porsche likes control of its drivers: see the da Costa case studies in recent seasons. But Ticktum is a different challenge.
Knowing Modlinger, if a driver is quick enough he won't care about their personality at all.
Nissan is the least likely to sign Ticktum because it can't have any personality taking away from the corporate message, while Stellantis is likely to be full up now with the expected acquisition of Cassidy, a loyal Vergne, and a ready and primed Theo Pourchaire, who is currently a reserve.
So perhaps Jaguar is just a small glimpse of a chance for Ticktum. Could he take it? Would he take it? Can Jaguar even consider it?
We don't have long to find out.
Additional reporting by Jon Jackson
