For probably the first time as a Formula 1 driver, Charles Leclerc is not relishing his home grand prix in Monaco - fearing that it will expose the worst of his 2025 car's weaknesses.
Leclerc has ridden the Ferrari rollercoaster for long enough to be used to the emotional upheaval this season has brought.
So far, it has been a familiar story: progress one season to the point of expecting a title challenge the next, have great hope and ambition, only to be disappointed once the car hits the track and the season really gets going.
Normally, going home to Monaco would be the boost Leclerc needs. But he warned last week at Imola he thinks this track will "showing all the weaknesses" of the SF-25 and it's "going to be a very tough weekend for us". And that message hadn't been swayed by the excitement of actually being at home on Thursday.
Asked in the FIA press conference about the chance of repeating his 2024 victory, Leclerc said: "If you want an honest answer, then low because, unfortunately, our car hasn't been particularly strong in low-speed corners and there's only low-speed corners here in Monaco.
"So on paper, it doesn't look like the most promising track for us, but in Monaco, it's also so unique and so different than anything we race on over the season that we can have also a good surprise once we put the car down tomorrow, which I hope will happen.
"And if it does, then I hope to be there on Saturday, because obviously qualifying will remain the most important part of the weekend. But on paper, it’s going to be a tough one."
Ferrari's had some big disappointments already in 2025 but none as embarrassing as a limp, uncompetitive qualifying performance at one of its two home races at Imola last week. Leclerc joined Lewis Hamilton in being eliminated in Q2, where Ferrari was just simply not as quick as either Williams, either Aston Martin, a Racing Bull or an Alpine.
The car's limitations manifested in a real disaster at Imola, which has a mix of high-speed corners, a lot of corners with kerbs that need to be attacked, and is also a bumpy track.
At the moment, Ferrari has to raise the ride height to avoid wearing out the plank because the car runs too low at the level of downforce generated in higher-speed corners. This sheds downforce and potentially compromises tyre preparation in the process, a double whammy in qualifying. Plus, Imola demands all teams run the cars a little high already, which perhaps took Ferrari even further out of its ideal set-up window.
Ferrari has managed to balance the car reasonably well within that compromise but in addition to not having as much downforce as it should have, Ferrari seems to have briefly eradicated the previous combined strength of climbing kerbs, quick on the direction change, and good traction.
Leclerc's fear is obviously that Monaco being all low-speed corners means we will only see the worst of Ferrari from this season. But that layout might actually help.
Back at the start of the season, in pre-season testing and the first two races, Ferrari's low-speed performance actually seemed quite strong. The traits from before were still present. It is the way it has changed the set-up of the car since China, and its disqualification for running too low, that seems to correlate with a drop in low-speed performance.
So, the lack of high-speed corners in Monaco might free Ferrari up with its set-up, allowing it to run more optimally in general, and also target any specific issues at low speed that it had to suffer through elsewhere. And that's what Leclerc indirectly admitted could save it this weekend.
"That's definitely one of the question marks that we also asked ourselves coming here," Leclerc said when asked by The Race if the low-speed demands of Monaco meant Ferrari could avoid the compromises it has been having to make at other tracks.
"The answer we'll only have on track tomorrow.
"We don't really know yet what to what to expect, but it is true that there's only low speed here so obviously we'll try and focus and put the car in the best place possible for low-speed corners, which normally on most other tracks you just try and find a compromise between the high-speed content and the low-speed content.
"But here it's all about the low speed and I hope that we'll discover something new about our car that we haven't seen yet, since the beginning of the season."
Sounding more enthusiastic about coming to Monaco is Hamilton, who has been a bit more enthusiastic about Ferrari's prospects in general.
Hamilton is excited for Monaco given Ferrari's known for being good on tracks like this, which fits into a long-held fascination he says he's had about this team at this race.
"Firstly, I'm still in that first year with this team, every weekend is something new," he said when asked by The Race how curious he was to drive the car here.
"Last weekend was the first time I've [been] into the European races, seeing the truck, finding my room, getting accustomed to a new layout.
"And this weekend, walking into the garage, it's all red. I've never been in the Ferrari garage in Monaco. I've always walked past it and always wondered what it would be like to be in the team. I just did a seat fit now and it's still having that contrast. It's awesome.
"And I have for years always wondered what a Ferrari would feel like around this track. Even in my first year, I think the Ferraris were very strong, obviously with Felipe [Massa] and Kimi [Raikkonen] were very strong, and obviously Charles in the last few years has been rapid here.
"You can see the car works a lot different to what I had driven in the past. How that will reflect this weekend, I don't know.
"I'm definitely excited to experience it."
The question is whether past Ferrari peaks are still possible with this car, as Leclerc's familiarity with Ferrari's past strengths versus what it has now - and Hamilton having no such reference point - could explain the difference.
Leclerc might know what he had previously and doesn't have now; Hamilton might be blissfully unaware. It may all come down to whether Ferrari really has the potential to use Monaco's anomalous nature to its advantage and buck the qualifying trend that has often left it so hamstrung this season.
Hamilton is taking confidence from his strong recovery drive on Sunday in Imola when he was able to charge from 12th to fourth.
"I was in the simulator on Monday...very nice early Monday morning. It's really incredible to see the engineers and mechanics, it does not stop. They go straight from the track, go on Sunday night and then [are] in the factory the next day," Hamilton explained.
"Yes, there's lots of positives as we said last weekend, we've taken from it. There are still areas that we need to improve on.
"Clearly, qualifying has been our biggest weakness so far this year, we're not extracting the performance from the tyres and that's something we are working on. I had some ideas, the team had some ideas and so we’ll try those this weekend.
"It's not the best place to try those things, but we'll try to make a step and qualifying as you know is everything here. It's a natural progression in the year. I've been feeling more at home with the team. Things work differently here.
"They've never had anyone like me here, so it's been challenging on both sides, but we're really finding the harmony, in the way that they're moving forwards."
