While we do not know the full reasons as to why Red Bull chose to remove Christian Horner as its Formula 1 team principal, the future of star driver Max Verstappen was undoubtedly one of the factors.
After all, the four-time F1 champion has been wavering in what he wants to do in the future - and the opening of talks between his camp and Mercedes indicates a desire to see what is on offer elsewhere.
However, despite some clear tensions between the Verstappen camp and Horner over the past 18 months, to think that getting rid of Red Bull’s long-serving team boss guarantees its star driver stays for the long-haul is naive.
For there is something that Verstappen himself views as critical to where he drives in the future that has absolutely nothing to do with who is the team boss.
It is quite simply that he wants to have the fastest car underneath him. The situation is really no more complicated than that.
So from Red Bull's perspective, its ultimate task has not changed one bit despite the change of team boss.
It still has to deliver Verstappen a competitive enough challenger, which he does not have at the moment.
Surveying the landscape
Few would argue against the fact that were Red Bull to lose Verstappen, it would be a body blow to the squad.
But despite rampant speculation about a shock switch to a rival this winter, it is understood a move elsewhere for 2026 remains unlikely.
With a new rules cycle coming into play, and huge uncertainty about how each of the major teams is going to perform, it is ultimately too much of a gamble to commit to anyone else right now.
Nobody knows who is going to be the team to beat for 2026 and, while the consensus is that Mercedes power looks to be favourite, with Red Bull and Audi engines picking up the rear, everything is based on guesswork.
From Verstappen's perspective, taking a leap of faith brings with it huge risks. Imagine signing for Mercedes, only to find out that its quick engine is super unreliable - and that it is Honda or even Red Bull that has pulled a blinder.
Much better to stick it out for now, try to make the best of the situation you have in your hands, and then see where the land lies at the start of 2026.
One thing seems almost certain and that is that the 2027 F1 driver market silly season will kick off in Melbourne next year - as everyone will then know who has nailed the new regulations and where the best place to be is for the following year.
Red Bull is well aware that if it does not perform then it is going to face an impossible challenge in keeping hold of Verstappen for the long haul.
While he is under contract until 2028, it is known that there are performance clauses in his deal. These are understood to make him a free agent if he outside the top three in the drivers' championship by the end of July this year, and then outside the top two at a similar point in 2026.
And for all the talk that Red Bull's decision to remove Horner is an attempt to do all it can to convince Verstappen to stay, what matters more is the end result in being able to produce a car that can keep him.
Progress is key
Based on current expectations, Red Bull faces a tough challenge in being able to fulfil that top-two demand for 2026.
It would essentially need its engine to be the best in the field - because if Mercedes, Ferrari or Honda do a much better job, then Verstappen will be left picking up the pieces.
But that is a form prediction that even Red Bull itself is anticipating. Horner said in one of his final media appearances that if Red Bull outshines Mercedes in 2026 it would be a shock.
"To expect us to be ahead of Mercedes next year is...it would be embarrassing for Mercedes if we were, or for any manufacturer," he said at the British GP.
"But I think we're going to be in a competitive position, potentially even to where we are today relative to our other PU [power unit] manufacturers."
So does this mean that come next summer break, if Red Bull falls short of delivering a quick enough car for Verstappen to stop becoming a free agent, then it is game over?
Not necessarily.
It will very much depend on just how far ahead the best team is and whether or not Red Bull has clear direction of travel that can get it back to the front rapidly.
One of Verstappen's frustrations in recent seasons has been that the team did not take his fears about performance seriously - so it realised too late that things were awry with its concept.
The task of new team boss Laurent Mekies will be to make the necessary changes to get things moving in the way everyone wants.
That will involve understanding what is wrong with the current RB21, and how best to fix it so the RB22 is better.
Whether that demands a restructuring of the technical department, or some new talent to be brought on board, is something only Mekies will be able to judge once he has had a closer look at how things are working.
In terms of the engine uncertainty, Mekies is coming into it cold - so will be inheriting all that Horner has left behind. There will be little he can do on this front to change the competitive situation quickly - as the train is already running.
Well aware of how tough it is going to be to fulfil the performance clause for 2026, the priority for Mekies will have to be making changes that convince Verstappen that Red Bull is the place to be for the future.
That means the team getting belief in itself back, and stopping the mass exodus that has taken place and includes the departures of key figures like Rob Marshall, Adrian Newey, Jonathan Wheatley and Will Courtenay - who is set to join McLaren when his current contract expires in mid-2026 - prior to Horner himself.
Mekies' personality is not one that looks like it will clash with the Verstappens in the way that Horner did; and they too will almost certainly give him time to show what he is capable of.
But he knows that just getting on well with the star driver and his entourage is not going to be enough to keep him on board forever.
Only a fast car will do that.
