McLaren's disastrous double disqualification in Las Vegas has brought Max Verstappen closer to the lead of the Formula 1 drivers' championship points than he has been since an opportunistic victory at Imola in May.
But does it mean anything with Lando Norris still in control of the championship? After all, there is a very real chance that Norris wraps up the title in Qatar this weekend anyway.
What happened in Vegas opened the door more to Verstappen. He could charge through it - but it could still be slammed in his face.
The biggest thing he's gained
The points permutations after the McLaren disqualification are clear: Verstappen is only 24 points adrift now, having more than halved Norris's advantage on Saturday night.
That is such a big swing versus what it would have been. Verstappen stood to gain just seven points on Norris at the chequered flag and a deficit of 42 points would have seemed almost insurmountable across two race weekends, even with a sprint race in Qatar.
To go from the brink of being eliminated in Vegas, had Norris finished ahead of him, to now having a very real chance of taking the fight all the way to Abu Dhabi is a big shift in control for Verstappen.
That's the biggest thing he's gained because for Verstappen it will all be about keeping it alive until the final day: he knows better than anyone how much the championship situation can suddenly swing in your favour in a one-race shootout.
Norris could still make this all moot in Qatar. But imagine the McLarens were not disqualified. Verstappen would go into this weekend needing to outscore Norris by as much as 18 points just to stay in contention.
He still needs to beat Norris in Qatar and avoid losing points across the sprint and grand prix combined. But Verstappen will fancy his chances of doing that, and certainly prefer it over the alternative.
He is taking things one race at a time because only by maximising every individual race did he have any chance of making up the ground to Norris. Verstappen's task in Qatar is still difficult but it is considerably less daunting now and there is no question he is at the top of his game.
Assistance still needed
What hasn't changed is that Verstappen still needs outside assistance, even though he's just had a big assist already.
The extent of the points deficit meant Verstappen needed Norris to suffer two setbacks in the final three races. Getting such a massive swing in one go definitely helps.
Verstappen's best chance, obviously, is to win everything that there is left to win. Much easier said than done, of course, and it could still leave Verstappen quite a few points shy.
Win the Qatar sprint, Qatar Grand Prix and then the Abu Dhabi finale, and Verstappen will be nine points away from the title if Norris just follows him home every time. Even a car in between them every time wouldn't be enough.
Before the disqualification, what Verstappen was set to rue from Vegas is that there weren't others there to take more points off Norris and give him a bigger swing.
Piastri, George Russell, and Charles Leclerc all had opportunities to beat Norris on-track in that race and didn't - and to be honest, that's probably the best chance either Mercedes or Ferrari had to mix it with the McLarens, which were weaker in Vegas relative to what we can expect in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
If Verstappen could not count on that help last weekend, there is little reason to think it will be forthcoming at tracks that should suit McLaren more.
The likelier ways Verstappen will get bigger points swings are if Norris makes mistakes, suffers a technical problem, or he's the second-best McLaren. But even if Norris trails Piastri that's still a scenario that could have him on the podium every time - and therefore just about win the title whatever Verstappen does.
Plus, while McLaren has flat out refused to engage in using one driver as a support act so far, if Piastri falls out of contention in Qatar, he would surely move aside if needed in Abu Dhabi if he happened to be ahead of Norris on track and the points situation was so precarious.
He must survive Qatar first
For all the various hypotheticals laid out here, there is a very simple equation for Verstappen: he must beat Norris in Qatar, or it's over.
The ideal is to win and gain as many points as possible. The bare minimum is just to not lose ground. On paper that looks tough in Qatar - although Verstappen's track record is actually better than either McLaren driver's.
He led them both home in 2023 and still managed to win in 2024 (pictured above) in a great rebound during his difficult end-of-season run. The 2024 victory came as Norris endured a horror show, picking up a stop-and-go penalty for a yellow-flags infringement. Now Norris goes there needing to deal with the pressure rising as he tries to see out his first title.
How Verstappen would love a repeat of the 2024 misjudgement. But even if such a scenario is unlikely to arise again, the point is that while Lusail has brought the best out of McLaren's car in the last couple of years its drivers haven't exactly maximised it.
And though long, medium-speed corners are not the 2025 Red Bull's forte, there are at least few compromises to make on this track.
In short, it's not a given that Verstappen spends the weekend second-best to McLarens. Even Red Bull's bad events in the second half of the season have equated to podium finishes and at its better ones it can fight and beat McLaren on merit.
If Verstappen gets another bit of fortune across the last couple of weekends he only needs one more chance taking on the McLaren on an even footing, and beating them.
Really, though, he needs that to happen in Qatar - not just to stay in the fight, but to give him the best chance for Abu Dhabi and crank up the pressure as much as possible.
