Lando Norris faces arguably the most important start of his Formula 1 career in Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix, before a run to Turn 1 packed with jeopardy for the three championship protagonists.
Norris is sandwiched by his two title rivals, poleman Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen in third, for the start of a race that may well be decided by who leads out of the first corner.
With both Piastri and Verstappen needing to beat Norris to take the championship to the final round in Abu Dhabi, and Norris conversely trying to wrap things up early, this is set up as the most critical opening lap of 2025 yet.
What ‘all-in’ Verstappen really means
Verstappen has said all weekend he is going all-in and the easy interpretation is that Verstappen will pull a pass-or-crash move into the first corner because he has nothing to lose.
But that is not quite true. First of all, Verstappen’s more mature than that. This is not the end of 2021, and even if you attribute hitting George Russell in Spain this year to Verstappen being willing to crash into another car on purpose – the circumstances were totally different there.
Whatever the exact nature of Verstappen’s Spain head loss, it was exactly that. It was red mist, not something calculated.
Verstappen is not as reckless as often made out, but he is clever and aggressive. And what’s at stake at the start is obvious.
This is a hard track to overtake on; he is probably not going to be quite as quick in the race as the McLarens; and he must beat Norris to keep his championship hopes alive. As he succinctly surmised when asked about the importance of jumping Norris at Turn 1: “If I don't pass him, then he scores more points than me!”
There is no way Verstappen isn’t sending a move if he’s anywhere near close enough.
"You know he's going to try and lead into Turn 1, so I wouldn't miss the start of tomorrow's grand prix," McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown said on F1TV. But that’s not the same as, say, suggesting Verstappen will come out second or Norris won’t come out at all.
It doesn’t have to be, either. Verstappen already knows what Norris is going through and the nerves that creep in when a title is close. Verstappen will also believe, based on the majority of their prior run-ins, that he has the beating of Norris in a game of chicken.
All Verstappen needs to do is be aggressive enough to make Norris think twice. His mere presence in Las Vegas a week ago was enough for Norris to be preoccupied with slamming the door at the start and then missing the first corner as a result.
Plus, Verstappen cannot afford to crash out. He can be a nuisance and play games into Turn 1 but even his powers are limited - he cannot be confident that he can have contact with Norris at the first corner and definitely be OK himself. And the equation is very different to Verstappen being the one with the points advantage and therefore it being in his interest for there to be a crash.
It’s easy to say it doesn’t matter, that he has nothing to lose, and so on. Verstappen does have the least to lose, as his chances are the worst. But have he and Red Bull worked this hard to just about be in with a shout only for Verstappen to pull a pass-or-crash move?
“In terms of corner one, lap one, I think every driver knows that first of all, if they want to stay in the championship, they need to finish the race,” said McLaren team boss Andrea Stella.
“And this is valid for Max.”
Norris with the most to lose
This has been a tougher weekend for Norris than the last few have been, and the result is that a couple of small but costly errors have crept back in.
It is not a coincidence that this has come with Piastri back on form. The margin’s disappeared, Norris is as quick as Piastri but not getting the laptime as comfortably - and he looks and sounds more stretched than the last few races.
As calm and confident as Norris was going into the weekend, the weight of the occasion will be felt. But the reality is he is still in control. There’s a serene path to the title today: jump Piastri at the start, win, job done. Take all that pressure off before Abu Dhabi.
Norris has enough of a points margin to play it safe. Given he has been second-best so far this weekend, it would be no disaster to emerge with a healthy points lead and a fairly straightforward job to finish in Abu Dhabi - ideally with Piastri being the only other factor.
So, the straightforward play for Norris is to not get caught up with Verstappen, accept third if that’s necessary - then try to pass him later on. Norris being a racing driver, the straightforward play is not one he wants to rely on as his Plan A.
“Same as every day,” Norris said when asked about how he approached the race he could become world champion in.
“I'm second, so not a whole chance for me to win at the minute.
“I just focus on trying to get a good start. That's all.”
Norris will probably just need to be reactive. If he succeeds in his goal he can focus on attacking Piastri not defending from Verstappen. If he ends up vulnerable to Verstappen into Turn 1 he is probably better off playing the percentages.
As long as Norris has a relatively normal race and result he can forget about Piastri to a degree. But it brings back the prospect of the two McLarens properly going at each other for the title – a prospect that had faded quickly over the last few races given their respective form.
McLaren says there will be “no changes” to how they manage their drivers here, so Norris should expect no help or preference to get the title over the line. Hence he needs to assess the risks at the first corner himself – his main job really is not to suddenly lose what he’s worked so hard to build.
“We have a lot of respect for Max,” said Stella. “He's a contender, he wants to win races, he doesn't want to win in a way that includes manoeuvres that may be beyond the limit.
“So the recommendation to make sure that we are going to see the chequered flag is the usual normal recommendation that we give to our drivers in every briefing on Sundays.
“They know very well. So I think they will just do their race and look forward to finishing.”
It’s also worth pointing out that McLaren has a chance here to guarantee one of its drivers will be world champion, which is its ultimate ambition over preferring which one wins it.
If McLaren finish one-two in the race, or Norris beats Verstappen, then Max is out of the picture and as Stella said “we would open a lot of champagne if that’s the case”.
Piastri in best position again
The poleman played down the start the least after qualifying.
“Yes, it's obviously important,” said Piastri. “But whether it's more important or not [than any other race] – not really. There are still 25 points on offer tomorrow.
“Obviously, there's a championship picture, but it's got the same importance as every other race.”
That is just Piastri playing it down, though. It is the same in terms of number of points compared to any other race, but the rest is skewed.
It is more important than most races because of how critical track position will be - as Piastri demonstrated with such a controlled, comfortable victory from pole in the sprint.
And it is more important because it is just one of two chances Piastri has to make up 22 points still to Norris, and on top of that Piastri could be out of contention entirely if the result goes against him.
Piastri’s in the best position, but he still has a lot of pressure to make the most of it. He has done a fantastic job to maximise his chances of pulling back a championship that looked lost - he cannot throw that away with a bad start or a poorly-judged Turn 1. And to be fair, Piastri’s other answers acknowledged that.
“The next target is to try and get a good start and that should make life a bit easier if I can do a good job there,” he said in one answer. In another: “The start is probably the biggest thing I need to get right tomorrow.”
After several weekends where he has either not quite been quick enough or not been lucky enough, plus one or two where he was just surprisingly battered by Norris with a huge pace deficit, this weekend has been a return to the kind of form that made Piastri look so good for the title for so much of the season.
It is not much of a surprise given this track has higher grip, with faster corners, and that’s the kind of combination that suits Piastri’s driving very well. He has looked comfortable since first practice and his confidence has only grown through the weekend.
Now he needs to cash it in. If he replicates his fantastic start in the sprint race, that’s the first box ticked. But it won’t be ‘job done’ completely.
While hopes are not high for a dramatic race with wheel-to-wheel fighting, there are reasons to think this grand prix will be captivating in another way. After the start, the initial jeopardy will be replaced by a long, warm race with the threat of track limits - there were penalties for this in the much shorter sprint - two pitstops to get right, and potential for gravel to throw up other disruptions.
The first few seconds of the race will be critical. And the hour-and-a-half that follows could be very tense.
