The figures that show how ludicrous Red Bull benchmark status is

What might be the competitive impact of the surprising outcome of the FIA deciding Red Bull Powertrains has the best internal combustion engine in Formula 1, with Mercedes granted one upgrade opportunity and Ferrari two?

So far the average qualifying performance (including sprints) of the four leading teams looks like this, taking into account the percentage off average pole and the conversion to laptime:

Mercedes 100.028% (1m22.706s)
McLaren-Mercedes 100.508% (1m23.103s)
Ferrari 100.525% (1m23.117s)
Red Bull 100.820% (1m23.360s)

The Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities assessment concerns only the internal combustion engine's performance, not the combined power unit and not the chassis. The metrics used by the FIA to assess that place the engine order as follows:

Red Bull Powertrains (no upgrade opportunities)
Mercedes + at least 2% (one 2026 upgrade opportunity)
Ferrari + at least 4% (two 2026 upgrade opportunities)
Audi + at least 4% (two 2026 upgrade opportunities)
Honda + at least 4% (two 2026 upgrade opportunities)

If we accept that between Australia and Canada the Mercedes engine was 2% behind in outright power terms that would represent just over 10bhp (though the metrics are much more complex than just peak power). The Ferrari engine, at 4% off, would be over 20bhp down, again, with the proviso that would be for peak power, but it gives us an order of magnitude difference.

A deficit of 10bhp would, around an average track, cost around 0.25s of laptime. So 20bhp would cost around 0.5s.

This is all very simplistic but taking the Mercedes average of 1m22.7s for the races so far, if Ferrari could use the upgrades system to recover all of its engine deficit, that would put it on the equivalent of a 1m22.6s. But if Mercedes could recover all of its internal combustion engine deficit, it would improve to 1m22.45s, with McLaren on 1m22.85s. Red Bull would remain on 1m23.36s:

Mercedes 1m22.45s
Ferrari 1m22.6s
McLaren-Mercedes 1m22.85s
Red Bull 1m23.360s

The implication of this very simplified exercise is that with power parity, Ferrari would leapfrog past McLaren but still be slightly behind Mercedes.

But that's all just theoretical.

ADUO only offers the opportunity for power unit manufacturers to improve. Obviously, it cannot grant the actual improvement. That must come from the manufacturer's own efforts.

As such, there are no power unit upgrades expected immediately - although Ferrari is said to be readying one in time for the Austrian Grand Prix and another later in the season, having been quite confident that it would get the required adjustment.

But although no upgraded power units are expected immediately following the publication of the ADUO findings, it's not impossible we see a change in performance regardless. If one or more power unit manufacturer has been running its engines conservatively in order to get an ADUO break post-Canada, then they could be let off the leash now that the engine performance order has been established.

Neither we nor the power unit manufacturers actually know what the metrics of the measurement are, the FIA preferring to keep that confidential in an attempt at preventing anyone gaming the system. However, the system might have been gamed regardless!

Mercedes and Ferrari - each keeping a keen eye on the other - could have been running conservatively for opposite reasons; Mercedes to prevent Ferrari getting the ADUO break and Ferrari to ensure it did. Which could be the reason the Red Bull engine performed the best...

If Mercedes has been holding anything back, it may think twice about running its engines more aggressively given that its reliability has been less than perfect - with failures for George Russell and Lando Norris so far.

But if the causes have been established and corrected, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the Mercedes actually stretches its legs. With four teams using the Mercedes power units, we'd have a good sample to suggest if this was happening. If Ferrari is able to turn the wick up even before its upgraded power unit arrives, then that might also suggest a certain amount of previous tactical gaming.

What will be interesting will be to monitor is if the teams using the Mercedes and Ferrari power units all show an increased performance relative to the Red Bull Powertrain, Audi and Honda cars.

All we can do in the coming races is look for clues as to what the real potential - rather than the tactical - picture of power unit performance is.