2025 Formula 1 world championship rivals Max Verstappen, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri line up first, second and third on the grid for the decisive Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Here’s our take on their qualifying performances and race prospects.
Nervous times for Norris
Scott Mitchell-Malm
Norris is in a good position to end Sunday as world champion - but a very, very nervy position for lap one.
Does he attack Verstappen at the start? Does he fight Piastri if his McLaren team-mate attacks him first? What kind of launch can he get from his side of the grid and will he be looking backwards or forwards into Turn 1?
He has the simplest mathematics but the most complicated task; the most envied championship situation and the one with most to lose.
The others face a more straightforward race situation but the odds are still against them to win the title.
Having taken pole, Verstappen will have every intention of doing what he needs to do to stay in front on lap one. The best chance Piastri has to make the progress he needs to have any chance will be on the first lap.
Norris will do well to stop running simulations of the start and Turn 1 through his head between now and the race start.
Glad it should be a straight fight
Gary Anderson
It’s great to see the top three being the top three in qualifying and that no one else has so far disrupted the championship battle.
That was a well timed mega lap from Verstappen. He wasn’t that happy after FP3 but was the man right through qualifying: Q1 P2, Q2 P2 and Q3 P1 with both of his laps capable of pole.
The first corner - even the first few corners - tomorrow is going to be interesting. Who will be thinking of the long game and put survival before track position?
A Verstappen surprise
Ben Anderson
I'm honestly a little surprised. I wasn't expecting a Verstappen pole here, but he's backed up his talk about entering this title showdown in a relaxed frame of mind and now put himself in the best position possible to win a race he absolutely needs to win to have any real chance of stealing this championship away from McLaren.
The race runs on Friday suggested Red Bull does have the pace to convert pole to victory, especially if the front graining phenomenon present then carries into the race, as we know that's something that Norris in particular struggles with.
But while it was a surprise not to see a McLaren take pole, Norris is still in a great position to get the job done. Really I think it needed George Russell's Mercedes to get in the mix between Verstappen and the McLarens to make things really interesting, but even if he had done so Toto Wolff reckons the Mercedes doesn't have the race pace to take it to the leaders.
So, provided nothing goes wrong on lap one - and Zandvoort is not repeated - Norris should by rights close this out from second on the grid, even if Piastri gets ahead of him tomorrow.
Will Verstappen resort to Hamilton 2016 tactics?
Josh Suttill
I fully expect Verstappen to have complete control of the grand prix on Sunday.
But if he heads off into the distance, that still might not be enough for the title if Norris holds onto second and has Piastri playing rear guard in third.
So if the opening lap is static, does Verstappen need to resort to the tactics Lewis Hamilton flirted with during the 2016 season finale?
Hamilton attempted to back up his Mercedes team-mate and title rival Nico Rosberg that day into the path of drivers, including Verstappen.
Might Verstappen need to do the same on Sunday, back Norris up into the path of the likes of Russell and Charles Leclerc? After the year they've had, I can't imagine either would be shy about making a move on Norris if the opportunity arose.
Putting aside whether that's as possible as it was in 2016 given the track changes since, I guess the bigger question is: is that the way Verstappen will want to win?
He's spoken so much about the fact he's already got four world championships and every single one since the first has been a bonus.
Tomorrow might be a test of just how true that is, how badly Verstappen wants it and what he's willing to do to get it.
I feel sorry for the McLaren drivers
Matt Beer
It’s going to take something painful to happen to Norris for him to lose this world championship now, but watching Verstappen and Red Bull’s absolute mastery of the ultra-high-pressure Q3 was more evidence of who the clear standout performer of the season is - and who the most deserving champion would therefore be.
That sounds harsh on both Norris and Piastri - and probably is. They’ve done very little wrong this year and both are talented enough to be F1 world champion during their careers.
But it’s going to be one of those championships where while history remembers the winner, many will put an asterisk on that achievement - if it’s one of the McLaren drivers - because someone else was so obviously driving better for so much of the year.
