Formula 1’s three-way title showdown is delicately poised with a fascinating set of dilemmas facing Max Verstappen, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.
Poleman Verstappen is in the best position to win the race - but Norris, who leads the championship by 12 points, will be world champion if the drivers finish in the order they take the start.
Piastri, meanwhile, is well-placed to attack both but requires the biggest swing of all to turn third on the grid and third in the points into snatching the title.
And the three drivers lining up in the first three positions provide an opportunity for drama, tension and an unclear outcome.
GUIDE: The results each contender needs to be champion
Norris has hurdles at every turn
There’s an interesting contrast in Norris’s situation. The points are on his side in the championship and Norris can finish where he starts or let Piastri by and still be champion.
Norris is undeniably in a very good position and it would be churlish to suggest otherwise. But that doesn’t mean it’s straightforward - not by a long shot.
Norris seems to be facing potential hurdles at every turn. The first comes with the race start and the run to Turn 1. Norris has the most to lose, so judging how much risk to take is critical. McLaren team boss Andrea Stella advises him to be “prudent” - Norris says he will make the call about “five metres” before he hits the brakes.
Caution is logical but play it too safe and Norris could open the door to Piastri and maybe others. If he is too aggressive he could throw away his ideal position - if he is conservative he could immediately lose the places that will cost him the championship.
However the first lap goes, the second issue is McLaren’s pace and tyre management. Working the fronts harder, and having some understeer, may be essential in managing the rear degradation that is prevalent at this track but it leads to graining. This was Norris’s self-described “worst nightmare” earlier in the season and can destroy race pace.
McLaren is aware of this, hence keeping two sets of hards in case the race turns to a two-stop strategy. It may not emerge as a critical factor if track evolution is such that the grip improves enough to stop the front axle sliding across the track and tearing the surface of the tyre, but it’s an active risk.
And finally, assuming Norris has the pace to win or run in a comfortable enough position to get it done – Verstappen will play games, back him up, and complicate his race as much as possible.
There is a path to the title for Norris, the best of all three. But it is still laced with hazards.
"I feel comfortable and ready to go," said Norris. "I feel like we’ve got a good plan for things. But you can’t plan for everything."
Verstappen’s ‘big question’
Verstappen’s excellent pole position puts him in control of Sunday’s grand prix, assuming he maintains the lead off the line. If he does he will be very difficult to beat.
However, there are still potential issues to overcome. Verstappen needs Norris to fall back from his starting position even if he wins. And Verstappen is unsure whether Red Bull’s one-lap pace will translate into being quick enough in the race to win anyway.
“Qualifying felt a little bit more together compared to the other sessions, where I always felt like we were still lacking a little bit,” he said.
“The final changes that we made going into the night, that seemed to help us a bit. And then throughout qualifying, just improving nicely.
“I’m happy with the one-lap performance at the end in qualifying. Now, of course, the big question mark is can we keep that up in the race.”
If not, and McLaren has an advantage particularly as rear tyre degradation could be a problem, there is still a caveat: it is one thing being faster than Verstappen but quite another to overtake him.
And overtaking Verstappen is what will be required for Norris to free himself from any games or for Piastri to give himself the best chance of becoming champion.
Still, Verstappen cannot do much to impact the McLarens behind him if he is simply not quick enough to keep them there.
Slowing up the pace strategically or to look after the tyres is manageable but if the McLarens are much faster to the point of following closely enough with relative ease, Verstappen will be vulnerable.
Big Piastri risk could have biggest reward
Sitting in the worst position on the grid and in the weakest position in the championship, Piastri put it perfectly after qualifying when he said: “I need things to happen in the race to win the championship. So, I’ll wait and see if those things happen.”
Those ‘things’ could be Verstappen and Norris tripping over each other into Turn 1 (which Piastri would have the perfect view of and may need to anticipate), or something a little more abstract - like the shape the race ends up taking.
His dilemma is simply that he needs the largest swing in fortune to be world champion but that affords him a degree of opportunity the other two lack. Piastri has the least to lose on the day and in the points – so he can justify a high-risk, high-reward play more.
That could be how he plays Turn 1, or the opening lap, but it could also be the strategic flexibility he has as the race develops. Especially if Verstappen does play games or the field ends up condensed as pace management becomes a factor and the leaders try to eke out a slow one-stopper.
If a two-stop strategy becomes a serious option, or anything close to being worth a punt, then Norris will not be able to roll the dice if he is already in a position to win the championship. The risk of sacrificing that will be far too great.
But Piastri could take the chance. If McLaren is willing to split strategies, which it has suggested is the case, Piastri could be the primary beneficiary. The biggest risk may have the biggest reward.
