A typically first day dirty track at Mexico City with quite a mix of run programmes made things less than crystal clear on Formula 1's 2025 Mexican Grand Prix practice day.
But as a wide generalisation Max Verstappen's Red Bull was super-quick in the qualifying simulation but struggled a little on his long run when he lagged behind the two Mercedes at a similar pace to the two Ferraris, all on the medium C3 tyre.
The McLarens? That of Lando Norris looked mighty on the long runs but both McLarens chose the C4 soft for their race stint simulation, making comparisons impossible.
Long-run averages
1 Norris 1m21.806s (9 laps) - softs
2 Russell 1m22.402s (7 laps) - mediums
3 Piastri 1m22.476s (10 laps) - softs
4 Antonelli 1m22.647s (11 laps) - mediums
5 Verstappen 1m22.821s (10 laps) - mediums
6 Hamilton 1m22.847s (6 laps) - mediums
7 Leclerc 1m22.879s (11 laps) - mediums
What is clear is that on this first day of running on the low-grip track championship leader Oscar Piastri was struggling to match team-mate Norris, as a continuation of COTA where grip was similarly low.
Piastri seemed relatively unconcerned, though.
"The lap on softs at low fuel was pretty average," he said, "so I'm not surprised with the lap time. But I tried a lot of things, we'll go through and have a look at what worked, what didn't.
"But overall I felt reasonable. We'll see what we can tune up for tomorrow and try and make things just a bit more consistent. I think that's the biggest thing."
He doesn't believe this is a continuation of his Austin difficulties.
The super-low grip may have exaggerated the advantage of the C4 over the C3 and as such the McLaren superiority on the long runs may be overstated on the raw numbers. Much of what we see there may just be a reflection of being on the better tyre for the day.
Certainly, Norris – whose car was handled by Pato O'Ward in FP1 - doesn't feel they are in a great place so far.
"It was reasonable considering I missed FP1," he said. "I found the limit quite quickly. But, on the downside, I found the limit quite quickly!"
This was a reference to how there was not the usual steady progression with the car through the session.
"Normally we're well ahead on Friday in the way we run the session but already we're a bit behind. The balance is all over the place on the single lap."
Indeed, the respective in-car views from the cars of Verstappen and Norris when both are on the soft for their qualifying simulation suggest that the Red Bull has a significant front end grip advantage in the slow-speed sections, notably through Turns 4-5 where Verstappen can simply turn in to Turn 5 from mid-way across the track and it still grips hard from the shallow angle, whereas Norris is obliged to take the longer entry approach. That's where the McLaren drops most of the quarter-second by which he trails the Red Bull over the lap.
But it's a similar story in the Verstappen comparison with Charles Leclerc's second-fastest Ferrari. Although Leclerc trails Verstappen by just over 0.15s, most of the loss is at that same Turn 4-5 sequence and for the same reason: the Red Bull just has superb front end bite.
Ferrari may have been running a higher engine mode than the others – it often does as it wishes to test the limits of plank wear and brake cooling – but part of its straightline speed advantage may also have been coming from the respective wing levels. Everyone is running maximum wing here but Ferrari's maximum wing appears to be a little lower than Red Bull's, McLaren's or that of Mercedes.
The Mercedes is getting out of the slow corners well and Kimi Antonelli put himself between Leclerc and Norris on his qualifying simulation lap. But neither he nor team-mate George Russell were especially happy with the car on their long runs.
But neither were Verstappen or the Ferrari drivers, all of them complaining of a lack of grip. Again, this may be nothing more than a function of the medium tyre not working particularly well on the dirty hot track.
There will be balance changes and form changes to come, but around this track which heats and cools spectacularly quickly in the thin air, those balance changes can be sudden. Stand by for some volatile form through the rest of the weekend.
