How much has bad luck really cost George Russell in F1 2026?

George Russell says he's only had six race weekends without an issue in a bruising 2026 Formula 1 season.

But, on a Brazilian Grand Prix weekend where he's facing another grid penalty, does his claim stack up, and how much does bad luck explain his clear defeat to Kimi Antonelli? 

Antonelli has destroyed his Mercedes team-mate Russell this year, winning nine races to Russell's three and wrapping up the title with four rounds to spare last weekend in Mexico.

That Mexico weekend was particularly painful for Russell, with his Mercedes team fined as he ducked his post-race media duties.

Facing the media for the first time in Brazil since that crushing title loss was confirmed, Russell admitted to "feel[ing] a bit exhausted this season of constantly picking myself back up". 

"When you get kicked to the ground, you pick yourself back up, then you get kicked down again, you pick yourself back up, and I was hoping to do that maybe twice in the season, not every other weekend really," he said. 

"When you get to a point of this season, you're away from home three weeks in a row, and you have another race like what happened in Mexico, where a chance of victory, a chance of the podium, just disappears totally outside of your control, it's tough to deal with. It's very tough to deal with. 

"So Brazil's a place that I love, I've got great memories of. Do I come in with high expectations? Honestly, no, to be honest. But looking forward to next year for sure. And just continue to work on the things that I can control, and pray that things outside of my control sort themselves out." 

Russell said he went through every race of 2026 with his engineers and found "we've only had six races this season where we had not an issue". 

"So 14 [likely 13, as there have been 19 weekends so far] of those races we've had things that have been what we thought was bad luck, but we need to start questioning things more deeply when it's happening so often, and especially on our side. 

"That was the main feeling for me." 

So, we put that claim to the test: we've gone through F1 2026's 19 weekends so far and found the following:

Lost wins? 

Russell's campaign started in dream fashion with a dominant victory in the Australian season opener, while Antonelli paid the price for a costly final practice crash that left him compromised for the rest of the weekend on a suboptimal, unrefined set-up. 

He could probably still count Australia as an 'issue' weekend as he had to fight back from having a depleted battery before he started the race - costing him positions to the Ferraris and requiring him to fight back into the lead.

Russell followed it up with a sprint win in China, but his first real bit of bad luck came in grand prix qualifying when his car ground to a halt at the start of Q3. This left him needing a late lap to salvage second on the grid. 

Reflecting on that session, Russell told media including The Times: "I pulled the clutch half a second too early in the qualifying, which led to my car breaking down. 

"Should we have known about that? Maybe yes. Maybe not." 

Russell had been faster than Antonelli all the way through the weekend up to that point, so you can make a case he'd have won there with a normal Q3. 

At Suzuka, poor safety car timing helped Antonelli to victory and cost Russell a shot at it. But Antonelli looked the faster driver and may have won on sheer pace. It looked more like a fight between him and Oscar Piastri's McLaren.

But Russell was also then further compromised on the safety car restart by his car being put into an extra harvesting mode, leaving him fourth at the chequered flag. 

"Then in Japan, doing the upshift at the exact same time as I clicked another button...on the steering wheel...should we have known about that? Maybe yes. Maybe not," Russell reflected. 

Antonelli won from pole in Miami while Russell finished fourth on what appeared to be a clean weekend for both cars.

Russell and Antonelli then scrapped for victory in Canada when Russell's engine failed while he was leading. 

Antonelli won again in Monaco while Russell had a double-hit of penalties, the latter for Mercedes not serving his first, a five-second penalty for pitlane speeding, correctly. 

Given the circumstances of the pitlane speed limit penalties that weekend and Russell being blameless for the second penalty, it was another unlucky weekend and a lost podium (as he was third on the late-race restart). 

Russell finished second at Barcelona; Antonelli had passed him (and may have challenged Lewis Hamilton for the victory), but his Mercedes broke down with an electrical issue late on.

Russell won in Austria, beautifully judging the yellow flags in qualifying while Antonelli mistook double-waved yellows for single ones and backed off, ending up fourth on the grid and third in the race. 

Russell struggled with power unit deployment issues at Silverstone and Spa. At Silverstone he salvaged second (so probably did not lose any points) while Antonelli loses a likely victory to a front-left wheel-shield failure. At Spa, the issue cost Russell 0.2-0.25 seconds in qualifying, while on the opening lap it left him vulnerable on the Kemmel Straight. 

This led to contact with Lewis Hamilton, who was penalised for the collision - which put Russell out on the spot. Antonelli won the race from pole. 

At Hungary, Russell cracked a sump running slightly wide over a kerb in Q3, which left him seventh on the grid and prompted engine-swap ramifications down the line. Then in the race he stalled and sank like a stone because of an engine rev anomaly, and an ill-timed virtual safety car stunted his recovery, while Antonelli took third. 

Antonelli and Russell finished second and third at Zandvoort, while at Monza Antonelli's excellent charge through the field - from 19th, owing to an engine-change grid penalty - was aided by the red flag and another well-timed virtual safety car.  

Antonelli's pace was so strong he may have still won without those anyway, but he was certainly aided by fortune on Sunday. 

A virtual safety car helped Antonelli beat Lando Norris's McLaren to victory in Madrid while Russell was fifth, off Antonelli's pace all weekend. 

Russell won in Baku while Antonelli crashed in qualifying before recovering to fifth. 

Another power unit failure at Sepang cost Russell a likely podium and meant he had to take a grid penalty in Singapore. Russell blew a sprint victory there by crashing out of the lead at the end of the first lap, while he recovered to ninth in the grand prix.

Russell picked up a five-second time penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage at Austin and labelled his own pace "rubbish" en route to eighth, while Antonelli won again.

Then in Antonelli's title-sealing Mexico weekend, Russell had a deployment issue that dropped him from his front-row start. He clashed with Isack Hadjar's Red Bull and was penalised 10 seconds. 

So really, there have been 12 weekends where Russell has some publicly disclosed bad luck - 10 of which cost him points - not counting issues that he or the team have not revealed. It is true that this dwarfs Antonelli's misfortune, as he only really lost points to factors outside his control at Silverstone and Barcelona.   

Ultimately, Russell can only make a case that he lost victories in China (Q3 problem), Canada (power unit failure) and Monza (red flag and VSC timing that helped Antonelli), but even all three of those were far from guaranteed. Maybe Antonelli would've just been quicker even if Russell had a normal qualifying in China, maybe Antonelli would've won their dogfight in Canada, and maybe Antonelli had the pace at Monza to win regardless.

We'll never know the answer to those questions, but only the most ludicrously generous estimates of the points Russell has lost this season put him marginally ahead of Antonelli right now, if you then subtract the points Antonelli gains from it.

Russell's lost points to bad luck - A (very) generous view

China - 7 points (1st not 2nd) 
Japan - 6 points (2nd not 4th)
Montreal - 25 points (1st not DNF) 
Monaco - 15 points (3rd not 12th) 
Belgium - 15 points (3rd not DNF) 
Hungary - 6 points (4th not 7th)
Italy - 7 points (1st not 2nd) 
Malaysia - 15 points (3rd not 20th) 
Singapore - 6 points (6th not 9th) 
Mexico - 10 points (2nd not 6th) 

Total = 112 lost points 
New gap to Antonelli = Russell leads by 6 points 

*accounting for Antonelli's net points loss as a result

This would be an impossibly fortunate season for Russell, taking very generous liberties such as assuming he wins in China, Canada and Italy, plus presuming he maintains his second place in Mexico, and crucially not removing any of Antonelli's own bad luck.

And even in this highly unlikely scenario where Russell is leading by six points, you'd back Antonelli to overturn it comfortably in the final four races on this season's form. 

In reality, even if you balanced out the reliability dramas of both cars, of which Russell has had more, Russell would still be over 60 points behind Antonelli instead of 130. 

A momentum killer? 

Russell called it "difficult to put a number on how much [reliability] has impacted the championship" and pointed to one important factor. 

"It's often about momentum. When we start the season, we had the issue in China with the failure in qualifying, we had the issues in Japan, we had the engine failure in Canada, we had the drivethrough penalty that wasn't a drivethrough penalty in Monaco. These things compound," Russell explained.

"If you're in the championship fight, or you're within touching distance, you don't feel like you're having to do catch-up. And maybe that contributed towards overdriving and trying to overachieve. Maybe not." 

Read more: The in-depth details behind Antonelli thumping Russell

Again, we'll never know how a cleaner start to the season would've changed things for Russell or put more pressure on Antonelli. Russell's bigger problem was how quickly Antonelli became the faster Mercedes driver. 

Has Russell had more bad luck than Antonelli this year? Yes. But has Antonelli been the better, faster driver on more weekends? Absolutely yes. 

And it's something Russell himself acknowledged in Mexico on the eve of Antonelli's coronation: "The truth is he's been at a higher level than me this year."

The bad luck ballooned the gap and made the defeat all the more crushing, but the speed and execution difference this year meant the intra-team fight was only ever going one way.