Ever since it emerged that Christian Horner’s exit deal with Red Bull allows him to return to Formula 1 team action early next year, speculation has swirled about just where he might end.
There have been discussions along the way with a host of squads – some of which approached him rather than it being the other way around – with the strongest links in recent weeks involving Aston Martin.
Yet despite detailed talks with owner Lawrence Stroll about an equity partnership and a potential senior role at the squad above that of team principal, in the end the Silverstone-based outfit elected to go in a different direction.
Aston team boss and CEO Andy Cowell’s decision to step down and take on a revised role as chief strategy officer may have opened an opportunity for someone more senior to come in, but Stroll instead settled on making Adrian Newey his new team boss for 2026 and publicly ruling out any role for Horner.
With that door shut, attention has shifted to other opportunities on the grid – with Alpine now back in the spotlight after long being one of Horner’s options.
Alpine investment
The fate of the French car manufacturer in F1 has been subject to speculation for a long while, and Flavio Briatore’s arrival as an executive advisor fuelled rumours at the time that he was tasked with selling the squad.
However, all the indications from Renault’s new CEO Francois Provost, brought in last August as replacement for Luca de Meo, are that he is fully committed to making a success of Alpine’s involvement in F1 and that there is no interest in offloading the team.
While Renault’s stance means Horner’s ultimate ambition of total control of a squad is not possible with Alpine, there could still be a route open for him in terms of at least getting a foot in the door with ownership.
This involves potentially buying out the 24% shares in the team that are owned by a consortium led by Otro Capital, RedBird Capital Partners and Maximum Effort Investments.
Backers of this funding include actor Ryan Reynolds, NFL stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, golfer Rory McIlroy and boxer Anthony Joshua.
That 24% deal, which was done in 2023, was worth $200 million at the time – so effectively gave the team a valuation of just less than $900 million.
But with teams now probably worth at least twice that – and Mercedes’ recent sale of a stake to George Kurtz valuing that squad at $6 billion – those that made investments a few years ago could be ripe for cashing in.
Horner has been clear that any move back into team management would require some form of equity involvement, so any tie-up with Alpine would have to be on those grounds.
Any Alpine deal therefore rests on this minority shareholding being up for grabs. Such an agreement would certainly make a lot of sense for the parties involved.
Otro Capital and the other investors would get a handsome return on an investment made just two years ago; and Alpine would get its hands on someone like Horner who showed at Red Bull that he has what it takes to steer teams towards world title success.
For Horner himself, an Alpine tie-up has a lot of attractions. The infrastructure at Enstone is well-established, it’s in a good location to attract top staff from F1’s motorsport valley, there is the influence and funding of a major car manufacturer behind it, and it potentially has in its hands what could be the benchmark power unit (Mercedes) for the next generation of regulations.
Furthermore, there is scope for Horner to be slotted into a senior position at the squad that would happily work alongside managing director Steve Nielsen and Briatore.
But while there is some logic to it happening, it is not even clear right now if a deal is even ready to be considered by Otro – let alone terms being discussed.
Otro may decide that it wants to stick rather than twist with its investment, in which case there would be no route in for Horner in the short term.
The waiting game
That situation would then leave open an option that perhaps has gone under the radar – which is that Horner does not rush his return to F1 at all and instead bides his time to wait for the perfect opportunity.
Sources suggest that while in the weeks after his dismissal from Red Bull there was a steely determination to be back on the pitwall as soon as possible, his mindset is slightly different now.
From obsessing over watching every track session in his first races out, it is understood that Horner has actually mellowed a lot and is enjoying spending time with his family and having a break from the intensity of F1 after so long on the road.
This means the preference is on not rushing into the first opportunity to return, but instead waiting for the right one – and with it a mindset that if it does not happen, then he can reflect on an already-successful career.
As F1 heads to what is going to be a hugely unpredictable 2026 season, doors that are closed right now may suddenly open up if some squads under-deliver and feel that a change is needed.
Horner’s track record, and the fact that there will be no period of gardening leave that would delay him swooping in quickly if someone wants him promptly, puts him in a decent position to sit back and wait for the phone to ring.
And that call could come from some surprising places depending how those first races of 2026 play out.
