The 2025 World Endurance Championship season wraps up this Saturday at the Bahrain International Circuit, and for the first time in the Hypercar era (which began in 2021), there will be a new manufacturers’ world champion. Toyota’s long reign of dominance is finally over.
But what are the realistic chances for Ferrari, Porsche, and Cadillac in this three-way title showdown? Here’s every possible scenario that could decide it.
The state of play before the finale
Since the opening round of the season, no manufacturer other than Ferrari has led the championship. The Prancing Horse stormed out of the gates with four consecutive victories, starting with a stunning 1-2-3 finish in the Qatar 1812km.
Heading into Bahrain, Ferrari sits on 204 points, with Porsche on 165 and Cadillac on 143. A manufacturer can score up to 66 points in the finale (38 for victory, 27 for second place, and one for pole position).
To avoid confusion: the privately-entered #83 Ferrari 499P and #99 Proton Porsche 963 do not count towards the manufacturers’ championship, as only works cars are eligible. For instance, at Le Mans, Porsche scored 50 manufacturers’ points thanks to the #6 car, which was the highest-finishing works entry despite finishing behind the customer #83 Ferrari.
The picture is, of course, very different in the drivers’ standings.
Ferrari: The title within reach
Ferrari is the only one of the three contenders with its fate entirely in its own hands. It needs just 27 more points to secure its first world endurance manufacturers’ crown in the top class since 1972.
If either the #50 or #51 Ferrari finishes in the top two, the title is guaranteed regardless of what Porsche or Cadillac achieve.
“We arrive in Bahrain with a decent advantage in both world standings: the manufacturers’ and the drivers’,” said Antonello Coletta, Ferrari’s Global Head of Endurance and Corse Clienti. “Our primary objective is to win the world manufacturers’ championship, bringing back to Maranello an endurance trophy that has been missing for 53 years.”
Ferrari would have to trip over its own feet not to seal it. Yet recent races have shown vulnerabilities: both factory 499Ps finished outside the top 10 at Fuji, just as they did at Interlagos.
What Ferrari needs to be champion:
- 1st place – anything else
- 2nd place – anything else
- 3rd and 8th
- 4th and 7th
- 5th and 6th (regardless of others)
- 8th and 9th, provided Porsche finish 1st and 7th or lower
- Pole + 9th and 10th, with Porsche 2nd and 4th or lower
- 10th and anything, with Porsche 2nd and 6th or lower
Porsche: The dangerous outsider
Few would have predicted this mid-season turnaround for the departing manufacturer. After a disastrous start to the year, Porsche trailed Ferrari by 122 points after Spa in May. That deficit is now just 39. But will that be enough?
“It’d be fantastic to wrap up our era in the FIA WEC with more title wins,” said Thomas Laudenbach, vice president of Porsche Motorsport. “We’re tackling the big finale in Bahrain as underdogs, but we’ll do everything to maximise our chances. The Porsche 963 will bid farewell to the championship as the most successful LMDh car since the regulations were introduced.”
Porsche has been on a roll since Le Mans, finishing on the podium in every race since. That momentum makes it the perfect dark horse: no pressure, nothing to lose, and everything to gain.
Having already sealed the drivers’ world title with Laurens Vanthoor and Kévin Estre last year, Porsche is eyeing its first manufacturers’ crown since 2017.
What Porsche needs to be champion:
- 1st and 9th, with Ferrari scoring 0
- Pole + 1st and 8th, with Ferrari 9th or lower
- 2nd and 4th, with Ferrari not on pole and finishing 9th or lower
- 2nd and 5th, with Ferrari 10th or lower
- 3rd and 4th, with Ferrari scoring 0 and Cadillac not finishing 1-1
- 1st and 10th (or 9th), with Ferrari scoring 0
- 1st and 8th, with Ferrari 10th or lower
- 1st and 7th, with Ferrari 9th or lower
Cadillac: A long shot
You only need to glance at the conditions below to see how steep Cadillac’s climb really is. Still, the American manufacturer deserves credit for even being mathematically in contention heading into the finale, proof of how quickly the partnership with Jota has clicked.
The V-Series.R claimed a stunning 1-2 finish at Interlagos and three poles in the last four races, but has since been pegged back by Balance of Performance adjustments after the last round at Fuji. Realistically, Cadillac’s role in Bahrain may be more that of kingmaker between Ferrari and Porsche.
What Cadillac needs to be champion:
- 1st and 2nd, with Ferrari scoring fewer than 4 points
- Pole + 1st and 3rd, with Ferrari scoring 0 and Porsche finishing 2nd and 6th or worse
What about the drivers' title fight?
While the manufacturers’ championship carries the most prestige in endurance racing, the drivers’ crown remains fiercely contested — as the table shows. A crew can score up to 39 points (38 for the win, plus one for pole).
- James Calado / Antonio Giovinazzi / Alessandro Pier Guidi (#51 Ferrari) – 115 pts
- Phil Hanson / Robert Kubica / Yifei Ye (#83 Ferrari) – 102 pts
- Kévin Estre / Laurens Vanthoor (#6 Porsche) – 94 pts
- Alex Lynn / Norman Nato / Will Stevens (#12 Cadillac) – 81 pts
What the #51 Ferrari crew needs:
- 2nd or better regardless
- 3rd and #83 is 2nd or worse
- 4th and neither #83 nor #6 wins
- 5th and neither #83 nor #6 wins
What the #83 Ferrari crew needs:
- 1st and #51 is 3rd or worse
- 2nd and #51 is 6th or worse, and #6 doesn’t win
- 3rd and #51 is 7th or worse (without pole), and #6 doesn’t win
- Pole + 4th and #51 is 9th or worse, and #6 is 3rd or lower
What the #6 Porsche crew needs:
- Pole + 1st, with #51 4th or lower
- 1st, with #51 5th or lower
- Pole + 2nd, with #51 8th or lower and #83 4th or lower
- Pole + 3rd, with #51 11th or lower, #83 5th or lower, and #12 not winning
What the #12 Cadillac crew needs:
- 1st, with #51 9th or lower, #83 5th or lower, and #6 3rd or lower
