Raul Fernandez had to win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix. Had to. It was a must-win.
This feels ridiculous to say about a rider who had never even sniffed a premier-class grand prix win before, who had never even - until this Sunday - spent a single solitary lap in the top three in a MotoGP grand prix.
But, in year four of his premier-class career, this race was an opportunity screaming in neon-bright red - and if he was to be taken seriously as a big part of MotoGP future, he had to take it.
The Aprilia RS-GP was clearly electrifying at Phillip Island. But talisman Marco Bezzecchi had the double long-lap penalty hanging over him. Jorge Martin was absent through injury. Rookie Ai Ogura was coming off an injury and overmatched by the scope of the Moto2-to-MotoGP adaptation at the track.
If it wasn't an open goal, it was at the very last a penalty kick. He just had to execute.
Execution has been the issue for Fernandez throughout his time in MotoGP. He was a talent supernova in his single season of Moto2 in 2021, one of the best intermediate-class rookies of all time, but looked perennially undercooked as a MotoGP rider since his generally unwanted graduation with KTM the following year.
Often he just hasn't been very quick. Often it was over one lap - and it penalised him massively under this current sprint format, where you have to be able to qualify on Friday already - lest you put your weekend in an irreversible tailspin.
Often he's been quick in bursts. When single-lap pace was there in glimpses, often the race performance would go awry. Sometimes it felt like he just doesn't have enough about him physically to succeed at this level - with massive debilitating arm pump issues that required surgeries in 2023 and 2024, but also other question marks over his condition.
Sometimes it felt like he just doesn't have enough about him mentally, just too prone to overthinking, to spiralling, to getting in his own head on the bike.
Opportunities were squandered. He famously crashed in the first Barcelona sprint last year while leading on the year-old RS-GP - but that was forgivable. You've got a rare lead, it's a short-distance race, you probably won't have the late-race pace, you've got to go.
Less forgivable was the Indonesian GP last time out, where he should have been on the podium but didn't get his timing right in battle with Luca Marini.
None of the opportunities were as good as today. None of them matter after today. He had the bike to win and the circumstances to win, but also 23 laps to spend with the clear realisation of 'it's now or never, this race is mine if I take it'.
His 23 laps felt long to watch. I cannot possibly imagine how long they felt on the bike. And yet all of the stuff that had hindered him before was gone, and suddenly it was just another ride. 1m27.8s. 27.9. 28.0. 27.9 again. 28.1. 28.0 again. 27.9 again. 28.0 three more times.
It doesn't mean he's a changed rider overnight - though he clearly is a changed rider compared to two years or one year ago.
Ultimately, he had the bike to win and the clear track to win, and it’s no surprise that when given those conditions the guy who won eight Moto2 races in his rookie season can do this.
But after his years in MotoGP in the interim, it is kind of a surprise. And it sends a message, whether to Trackhouse or to prospective other future MotoGP employers, that yes, you can trust Raul Fernandez to get the job done and actually get out of his own way.
Having that proof on record will matter down the line. It doesn't really today. If this was the chance, he's taken it. Nothing else matters. He will never have to doubt 'what if'. He will never have to doubt whether he can do it.
