The shock news that Jorge Martin might not fancy seeing out what was announced as a multi-year MotoGP deal with Aprilia risks sending into overdrive what was already a surprisingly lively rider market for 2026.
The Aprilia/Martin situation could still go many ways - and even if Aprilia addresses it publicly any time soon, it will almost certainly not undercut its legal position by floating the possibility of sourcing a Martin replacement, much less name any names.
But boss Massimo Rivola and his colleagues would be wise to start succession-planning now in the background.
Here's our best attempt at estimating Aprilia's 'shopping list' that it would have to turn to if, one way or another, the Martin deal is cut short after all.
There are some notable names of various contractual status absent from here.
Johann Zarco is arguably the prize of the 2026 'free agency' but is currently expected to stay at Honda on a works deal even if Honda lands Martin. World Superbike champion Toprak Razgatlioglu hasn't ever been linked with Aprilia. KTM talisman (right?) Pedro Acosta is under a 2026 contract and has the same manager as Martin. And Miguel Oliveira is at least officially on a multi-year Yamaha deal, only just back from injury - and already had an Aprilia stint that neither rider, nor manufacturer (nor the Trackhouse team) seemed particularly fulfilled by.
All four could be on this list somewhere, and the same goes for left-field options such as Moto2 frontrunner Manu Gonzalez - but here are the seven options who feel the most straightforward.
7. Lorenzo Savadori
Aprilia's MotoGP test rider (and its sometime Superstock 1000 and Italian Superbike champion), Lorenzo Savadori was rewarded for his service to the marque with a late-2020 call-up that then turned into a genuine full-time stint - which lasted until Aprilia swooped in for the Yamaha-released Maverick Vinales.
Argument for
The extremely amiable Savadori - whose best-ever MotoGP finish of ninth came last time out at Le Mans - is very well-liked within Aprilia.
Having already raced in relief so many times including a big portion of this season, he would be a seamless fit if Aprilia needs a bit more time to figure out its long-term rider options.
Argument against
Savadori is 32 and, while a test rider role has naturally limited his capacity to score actual MotoGP results, will hopefully forgive us for pointing out he isn't Aprilia's future.
He hardly seems desperate to be racing full-time and might be best-kept focused on - and energised for - normal testing duties, given there's no shortage of free agents Aprilia could call upon as stopgaps (or more) instead.
6. Raul Fernandez
A long-time Aprilia project, Raul Fernandez is very tentatively finding his feet after a horrible start to 2025. He is on a two-year contract with Trackhouse, but until Le Mans a continuation into 2026 felt difficult to justify even with a valid contract in place.
Arguments for
Fernandez has the most extensive knowledge of Aprilia's RS-GP within its current camp of regulars. If he's at - and above - his Le Mans performance level in the upcoming rounds, you could probably talk yourself into giving him a 'why not' path-of-least-resistance go in the works team for a season, which would probably be totally acceptable for Trackhouse.
Arguments against
The body of work very obviously isn't there to justify it right now, and turning to Fernandez firstly would yield a very obvious, very understandable 'what?!' from Ai Ogura - so this is a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option if Ogura doesn't want to move up and stopgap riders aren't open to one-year deals.
5. Nicolo Bulega
A once-fantastic Moto3 rookie who fizzled out badly in grand prix racing, former Valentino Rossi protege Nicolo Bulega has proven a massive hit in the World Superbike paddock - his transformation most recently underlined by a spectacular defeat of Razgatlioglu in a Most dogfight for his 14th WSBK win in 51 starts.
Arguments for
Bulega is 25, Italian (which shouldn't be the overriding factor but doesn't hurt, marketing-wise) and is clearly much better than his 'wilderness years' in Moto3 and Moto2 suggested.
And he has a stated interest in going to MotoGP as a factory rider if that proves possible.
Arguments against
Bulega reportedly admitted at Most that MotoGP is a 2027 interest (new 850cc bikes, Pirelli tyres) rather than a 2026 one, and his lack of enthusiasm for a 'rehearsal' season would make this whole thing complicated.
It's also been widely reported that Ducati will make a strong push to keep him on the books, and that will offer the possibility of a MotoGP future.
Bulega is thus a marginal inclusion. He's on the list because Aprilia could offer him right away what Ducati cannot right now, and could probably make a financially attractive offer, too - but there's clearly a reason the rider himself was happy to offer up another name as his bet for the likeliest candidate to fill the seat for 2026. That rider is, oh-so-conveniently, the next name on this list.
4. Enea Bastianini
A seven-time grand prix winner in the Ducati camp, Enea Bastianini's time in factory red fizzled out quickly through injuries and slightly erratic form - and though he's on a two-year KTM deal at Tech3 right now, there has been no shortage of reporting that both Bastianini and KTM are aware it might end up in both parties' interests to cancel that one early.
Arguments for
Bastianini is being talked about as some sort of KTM mega-flop - but he's still put up respectable points and has shown he can still be relied on to fish out results from poor grid positions.
Aprilia would've done solidly in getting him last year, so really should reconsider if the option presents itself.
Arguments against
He doesn't seem like the most adaptable rider on the grid, and - even if a release from KTM is somehow simple - might have other options that you would need to outbid, which might not be worth it if you aren't convinced he's the long-term solution.
3. Jack Miller
A rider who has generally succeeded at each of Honda, Ducati, KTM and Yamaha, but has hit a performance ceiling at the former three and appears to be on shakier ground right now than expected despite a reasonably lively start on the Yamaha M1.
Arguments for
A free agent with a full set of knowledge when it comes to rival manufacturers (admittedly the Honda portion of that will be very, very outdated) and a knack for delivering an instant impact.
Not the youngest but still young enough at 30 to have a good few years of MotoGP left in him.
A proven team player.
Arguments against
Probably not your long-term anchor given how things fizzled out for him at both Ducati and particularly KTM.
2. Luca Marini
Luca Marini is thought to be valued by Honda, but he was already up against it to retain the works seat - and if Martin enters the picture there, it by definition makes Marini a free agent, one who will surely be very amenable to an Aprilia offer.
Arguments for
Marini's Honda signing in the first place owed a lot to his perceived development acumen, and he seems to have lived up to that.
A Martin exit almost necessarily equals an Aprilia rebuild, which Marini's steadying presence would be perfect for even if he won't be super-fast out of the gate - and he's the kind of rider you want ahead of the 2027 regulations change.
And 'Marini with Italian engineers' sounds like a particularly good fit.
Arguments against
Not the fastest option available, or at least that's what the current evidence suggests.
1. Ai Ogura
Ogura dominated the Moto2 championship last year - and yet somehow his Trackhouse Aprilia debut has only enhanced his reputation, creating almost-an-expectation that he will have a factory offer on the table at the conclusion of his two-year Trackhouse deal.
Arguments for
Aprilia is well-positioned to undercut any potential Ogura free agency by striking a deal with Trackhouse to bring him into the works team for 2026.
As impressive as his start to life has been in MotoGP, Aprilia cannot know his ultimate potential - but, if Martin leaves, it just cannot get a higher-upside replacement.
And if Ogura progresses, while there would be no way of preventing him from being a hot commodity for 2027 among rivals, there would be a valuable head start in bedding him into the '27 project and offering him the kind of continuity he seems to relish.
Arguments against
You have to make sure Trackhouse is satisfied with the arrangement - by helping it source either a proven MotoGP rider or a Moto2 project team boss Davide Brivio is keen on - because the last thing Aprilia needs right now is a pointless rift with its satellite team.
