It’s looking increasingly like Honda's 2026 MotoGP line-up will go in one of only two directions, as it awaits news on whether reigning world champion Jorge Martin will be able to find a way out of his two-year Aprilia contract.
As things stand right now, Honda is in the wholly unique position of having the majority of its current riders out of contract at the end of 2025. Only 2020 champion Joan Mir is halfway through a two-year deal that keeps him onboard until the end of next season.
Current top performer Johann Zarco is on a deal that expires at the end of the current season, as is Mir's factory team-mate Luca Marini (signed, as he was, as an out-of-sync replacement for the unexpectedly departing Marc Marquez), while Zarco’s satellite LCR team-mate Somkiat Chantra is on a one-plus-one deal that gives Honda an option on him for next year.
One of those three is very likely safe.
Zarco had been in contract talks with Honda even before his stunning home win at Le Mans last month, and with talk of his future going quiet of late it's fair to presume that means that a deal is now signed but not yet publicly announced - something that could happen when he lines up in factory colours at next month's Suzuka 8 Hour endurance race.
Where exactly he will slot in remains a question but, with Zarco happy to remain at LCR as long as he receives the latest factory-spec machinery, it's not too much of a concern for him which garage he's in (and it might actually make for an easier life being a satellite racer rather than a factory one).
That leaves a space at the factory (previously Repsol, now Castrol) team that boss Alberto Puig is obviously hoping to fill with Martin - a prospect that Martin's manager Albert Valera has been quite open about at this weekend's Dutch TT.
But with the team (and Puig in particular) a big fan of the meticulousness and development nous of the currently-injured Marini, Honda has been wary of letting him slip even if it does manage to sign Martin.
So even if the move for Martin is successful, there's a way Marini would remain at Honda: joining Zarco in LCR as underperforming rookie Chantra steps back down to Honda's Team Asia set-up in Moto2, a squad that has very much been lacking a figurehead racer since his promotion.
And while that would likely cost LCR team boss Lucio Cecchinello his lucrative backing from Asian fuel station operator Idemitsu, it might well be that Castrol (already a backer of both the factory team and Zarco's side of the LCR box on a rotating basis) could step up in order to replicate what Red Bull currently does at both the factory KTM team and its satellite Tech3 squad - providing full Honda sponsorship coverage across the grid.
However, it's not yet clear whether Martin will be able to exit his Aprilia deal, at least without a lengthy and costly court battle against the factory - and that means that Honda is in the meantime preparing a plan B that would allow both Marini and Chantra the chance to remain in situ.
That doesn't just mean Honda would continue to benefit from Marini's development skills, but it would also go some of the way towards making up to the Italian for the serious injuries he sustained last month while testing out for its Suzuka project alongside Zarco - a race that holds huge regard within Honda.
With time largely on Honda's side and no need to rush to find a replacement should it not sign Martin, it means that we're unlikely to find out any time soon exactly what shape the final elements of next year's grid will take.
There has been suggestion of an August deadline but, with legal action potentially pending, that could be stretched - or compressed, should Honda decide it wants nothing to do with a rider another factory believes it's got a valid contract in place with, something that Aprilia was keen to once again stress at Assen.
