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The 2021 IndyCar season finale at Long Beach was supposed to be Andretti’s weekend.
It announced Romain Grosjean for 2022, came in with the driver who has won the previous two weekends in Alexander Rossi and with the driver who is the most likely to dominate an IndyCar weekend from start to finish in Colton Herta.
But it didn’t take the wheels long to fall off the wagon.
With Herta starting 14th after hitting the wall and breaking a toe-link, and Alexander Rossi being caught out by a lack of running on the soft tyre starting 15th, the pair have a lot to do.
In their post-race comments though, both indicated they have race-winning pace, with both drivers suggesting the win was still possible.
“Tough day,” Rossi said after qualifying. “Didn’t get to run alternates in practice with all the red flags, so we didn’t have a good idea of what the balance was going to be for qualifying.
“We missed it by just a bit but have plenty of speed in the car to win around here again.”
While team-mate Herta concurred with Rossi’s view while speaking to NBC, and after the session added: “Really disappointed in myself really, slapped the wall and kind of ruined the qualifying session. but we’re fast, that’s a good thing. Hurts a little bit because we really had a great shot at pole. Had a good car all weekend, we’ll see what happens.”
Ahead of the final race of the 2021 IndyCar season, we assess their claim that they could still challenge for victory.
For: They have two sets of soft tyres
By missing the second and third rounds of qualifying, Herta and Rossi have saved two sets of soft tyres, while those at the front in qualifying haven’t.
This isn’t expected to be a track where degradation is enormous but that could still be the difference between a few positions in the race.
We saw with Grosjean at the last race at Laguna Sea – even if that was a degradation heavy race – the power of a fresh set of softs with longer life than those around you.
Against: The stats don’t support it
Only four times has this race been won from 15th on the grid or lower.
Amazingly for the purposes of this story, the last person to do so was Herta and Rossi’s team boss Michael Andretti, who won from 15th back in 2002. The perfect example of what can be done for Rossi then!
Mike Conway won from 17th in his extraordinary 2014 win and Paul Tracy did the same in CART in 2000. The only person to do it from a lower spot than that was John Watson at the 1983 F1 event. We can’t really count that one.
The best result from a lower starting spot in the last decade was Will Power in 2012. So going purely by the stats this will be a tough order for either Herta or Rossi.
For and against: Rapid but inconsistent and error-prone
Herta has been on another level when it comes to street circuits this year, but a few costly errors have crept in. Hitting the Long Beach wall cost him pole in a session he was expected to dominate. He crashed fighting for the win in Nashville when strategy went against the pole sitter and he won from pole in St Pete.
Rossi’s had a similar run, crashing into Graham Rahal and Pato O’Ward in St Pete and Nashville respectively while looking like a podium finisher in both those races.
Without a championship on the line perhaps these mistakes are somewhat forgivable, and being free of this burden may help a charge from 14th/15th on the grid.
Certainly, both drivers’ practice pace and form on street courses points to them being in contention.
But both have to rely on a clean execution from driver and team, which isn’t something Andretti has specialised in since 2019, and in that year Rossi took his second win in a row here. He’ll be looking to rekindle that.
For: Street circuit strategy has been unpredictable
I’ve used strategy as a broad term as it sounds better than events, but just in general crazy things have happened at some races this year.
Nashville in particular, where Marcus Ericsson had a huge airborne accident then won only proves that. A lack of cautions at St Pete made that a straightforward win for Herta but the pair of Detroit races threw some curveballs at the teams too.
If we’ve learned anything from practice and qualifying it’s that almost every driver has hit the wall multiple times, which could translate into a caution-heavy race.
The tonic to this claim is that there was only one caution at the last race in 2019 for three laps, but look back one more year and you’ll find the four caution 2018 event that had 17/85 laps under caution.
It can be a bit of a curveball at Long Beach then, like 2021 has been for unusual races in general. If we’re working on an ‘on/off’ policy, 2019 was the off-year and 2021 is the on-year for drama.
Against: Three drivers are going for the title!
Alright, you can’t just force a win in the IndyCar Series, but if drivers need any more motivation than doing just that it’s that there’s a championship on the line.
Both Josef Newgarden and Pato O’Ward realistically need to win the race to have a shot at beating Pato O’Ward to the title. Newgarden’s on pole and O’Ward’s eighth.
Palou starts 10th and he won’t be keen to let two cars past either as he needs a buffer. 12th guarantees him the title.
You might argue that being free of the championship gives Herta and Rossi more room to gamble, and that might well be the case. But while there’s a championship on the line I think Newgarden, O’Ward and Palou will be tough cars to pass.
Certainly, we’ll all be hoping Herta and Rossi don’t try any risky moves on these drivers as they look to secure the Astor Cup.
