Red Bull's 2026 slump risks its grip on Max Verstappen

Max Verstappen has often said he's in Formula 1 for a good time rather than a long time, and he's hardly been having much of a good time in 2026 so far.

Whether it be his demolition of these "anti-racing" cars when they debuted in pre-season testing, his even bigger, incendiary rant about the quality of the racing after retiring from the Chinese GP, or Red Bull's own dip into F1's midfield there, it hasn't been a fun start.

He's made it very clear he detests this new generation of grand prix cars and how they dilute the challenge of driving and racing F1 machines and turn the racing into a game of "playing Mario Kart".

And consistent with previous claims, Verstappen told the Up To Speed podcast ahead of the season that "I'm very happy with my career already in Formula 1, I can easily leave it behind".

And even if pressuring for rules tweaks that might help Red Bull could be playing a part in his willingness to be so critical, there's no doubt it reflects Verstappen's genuine feelings.

But what Verstappen hates even more is not winning. So, if this situation continues, it's hard to see him resisting the temptation to pursue racing opportunities elsewhere.

He's already doing that on the Nurburgring Nordschleife. He returns to the 'Green Hell' for the second Nurburgring Endurance Series race of 2026 this Saturday - which you can watch on The Race's YouTube channel - as part of the preparations to make his Nurburgring 24 Hours debut in May.

For now, such antics are a side quest that he fits in around the demands of his day job. But it would be naive to imagine that he won't consider walking away from F1 if it no longer offers him the satisfaction and opportunity that he expects. Or, for that matter, that he might choose to jump ship to another team.

That's why Red Bull cannot afford to let this situation go on.

Red Bull's 'significant shortcomings'

It wasn't that long ago that Red Bull was being hailed by rivals for the strength of its first in-house power unit during pre-season testing, and there was a point early in the first Bahrain test where it even threatened to be the pacesetter.

It was lauded by Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff, with his headline-grabbing claim on the opening day in Bahrain testing that Red Bull had a deployment advantage on the straights worth a second per lap.

But come Melbourne, Red Bull was well adrift of Mercedes and Ferrari, left fighting with McLaren to be third-best.

Then things got worse in Shanghai as Verstappen and Red Bull spent the weekend fighting Alpine, Racing Bulls and Haas in the midfield.

"Being on the back foot at the start of a sprint weekend is the worst-possible scenario as there is really little time to catch up and get on top of any difficulties," Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies explained.

"Overall, performance-wise, our package showed some significant shortcomings."

Verstappen didn't mince his words on what was wrong with the car after the race either: "Just a lot of graining, can't push, terrible pace, terrible balance."

There were complaints from both him and team-mate Isack Hadjar about a lap of grip throughout the weekend with oversteer and understeer problems.

The chassis and grip level appear to be the primary weakness as Verstappen said there was "a little bit from the engine side, but that's not probably the biggest item" when it comes to what is lacking.

It's still very early days for optimising the energy regime of the cars and mastering the tiny details that can make a huge difference to laptime, and that's one area where Red Bull will be hoping to make gains.

And, of course, if the FIA's analysis shows Red Bull to be 2% or more off the benchmark - Mercedes - based on the governing body's secret measurement criteria, then Red Bull would qualify for Additional Design and Upgrade Opportunities - F1's new engine catch-up system that potentially offers extra upgrades, testing resources and even cost cap spend on the engines.

But the focus for now is on the car. Japan is a dramatically different track to China and a move to conditions that might be warmer, plus a higher-speed track could help as the cooler conditions in China may not have played to the RB22's strengths.

However, even in these power-unit-dominated times, aerodynamics matter and upgrades are needed to get Red Bull into better shape. But of course, others will introduce new parts as well, with the Miami GP (now round four, and five weeks after Japan) the obvious time for a deluge of updates.

It's far too early to count Red Bull out of the title race yet, even if Verstappen is behind Haas's Ollie Bearman and Alpine's Pierre Gasly in the championship right now. As 2025 proved, he's never really out of the race until mathematically out of contention, and Red Bull's proven it can develop its way back to the top from flirting with the midfield.

But you have to wonder what role a disappointing start will have on Verstappen's future and the growing allure of non-F1 activities.

In China, Verstappen mentioned the possibility of taking on the Spa 24 Hours and the Le Mans 24 Hours. While this was in the context of not wanting to leave F1, really, the message is clear.

He's also made it very clear that he prizes time spent with family and friends, has a rich life outside F1 and plenty of things to do should he no longer be in F1.

That's why even if he doesn't want to leave F1 - yet - if he did, he wouldn't lack for personal and professional challenges.

The Mercedes temptation?

The other alternative, should Verstappen lose faith in Red Bull's ability to get back to the front in F1, would be to move elsewhere. And that could only mean Mercedes.

Yes, the Verstappen to Mercedes stories have continually flared up over the past couple of years. But sometimes there is no smoke without fire and, in this case, channels of communication have been open.

So far, it's only ever been a possibility but, with Mercedes back on top in F1, it must be a more appealing prospect than it has ever been for Verstappen. And while Mercedes has George Russell, who is the favourite for the world championship, and F1's newest race winner, Kimi Antonelli, on its books, Wolff has shown a willingness to move heaven and earth to get Verstappen into one of his cars. That means the door isn't closed.

Whether Verstappen would really want to jump ship is another question. Firstly, it would be premature to make any such move, given it will take time for the competitive order to settle down and the development picture to emerge before he can make a decision.

Secondly, Verstappen is the most sought-after driver in F1, so the driver market moves on his whim, not the other way around.

Thirdly, he has a long and successful relationship with Red Bull going back well over a decade. In China, he described it as "really like a second family" to him.

For that reason, he might think the grass would not be greener and rule out the move to another team - making it a simple choice of whether to keep going with Red Bull in F1 or walk away.

He is under contract at Red Bull until the end of 2028, but there's always a way out if you want to make it happen and last year it emerged that Verstappen has an exit clause should he fall outside the top two in the championship at a certain point in the season. It feels highly likely that will be the case looking at the competitive picture right now.

Most likely, it depends on whether China was Red Bull's 2026 nadir or a sign of things to come. Verstappen would find being in the third- or fourth-best team, with a chance of grabbing the odd victory, much more appealing than hanging around in the midfield.

Realistically, Red Bull's baseline level for this year should be higher than that, although Suzuka will be a big test.

"We have learned so much over the past few weeks, and I expect that we can be more competitive from the next round in Japan," Mekies said.

Suzuka will also be the ultimate measure of exactly how much Verstappen can enjoy driving these cars given it's arguably the best circuit on the F1 calendar as far as technical challenges go.

So what will Verstappen do? We don't know yet because he probably doesn't know for sure either. What we can be certain of is that there will be another stretch of time when there are increasing questions about his future.

And if you listen to everything he says about his relationship with F1 and the fact he has no intention to race in F1 until he's 40, or any need to rack up seven, eight, or more world championships, you'll know that eventually one of those periods of speculation will result in him making a move that will have seismic implications for both him and F1.

Especially given that everything we've seen over the past six weeks proves that, right now, he is not happy.