Red Bull's Lawson decision is a clean break from its Marko era

Racing Bulls has extended Liam Lawson’s Formula 1 contract into the 2027 season - and Lawson can thank his recent performances for convincing Red Bull to avoid an unprecedented driver sacking.

Lawson’s seat in Red Bull’s second team has been at very real risk in recent rounds, with Formula 2 race winner Nikola Tsolov waiting in the wings and Red Bull needing to decide which two of Lawson, Tsolov and Arvid Lindblad race for Racing Bulls next year. 

But had Lawson lost out - with zero options elsewhere on the grid to race in 2027 - it would have been an unprecedented move.

In the past 10 seasons of F1, there have only been two comparable cases of a driver doing as well as Lawson is currently doing, getting dropped and then not having an alternative seat for the following season.

Only Sergio Perez - who was eighth in the 2024 championship - and Alex Albon - who was seventh in the 2020 championship - have been higher placed than Lawson is right now (ninth) and yet found themselves without a drive the year after.

Both, of course, met that fate thanks to Red Bull, but the big difference is both Perez and Albon were driving for Red Bull Racing - and getting absolutely destroyed by Max Verstappen in the process.

Lawson is in a completely different situation here, in that he’s the highest-placed of all midfield drivers in the 2026 world championship and comfortably ahead of his rookie team-mate Lindblad.

The main threat to Lawson’s position comes from F2 title contender Tsolov. The Bulgarian has won six races in his rookie F2 season and sits only seven points behind 2027 Haas F1 driver and Ferrari junior Rafael Camara - who made his F1 debut in place of Esteban Ocon in Brazil.

Tsolov has made a strong case for promotion, not only because of those F2 results but also because of how well he did subbing for Lawson in a mandated rookie FP1 outing in Mexico, where Tsolov lapped within two tenths of Lindblad and generally looked very at ease with the whole business of being in F1.

On top of Tsolov’s impressive showing in Mexico, Lawson later had a run-in with Red Bull’s kingpin driver Verstappen during FP2 - which earned Lawson a strong rebuke from the four-time champion, in which Verstappen alluded to Lawson’s 2027 deal uncertainty.

The Race understands the recent triple-header has basically been the crunch moment for Red Bull and Racing Bulls to do their final analysis on who should drive next year - so Lawson has been under pressure during this period and at genuine risk of losing his seat.

Which perhaps explains Verstappen’s pointed remark in the wake of their collision in Mexico, “It’s just not very smart behaviour when you’re in his position to pick a fight with me.”

But the way Lawson rebounded from that low point, recovering from a technical exclusion in qualifying and a pitlane start to finish seventh that weekend, in his familiar position as the leading midfield runner, showed true grit.

Add that to the way Lawson excelled in the wet in Brazil - fifth in qualifying and seventh in the race - and it’s difficult for anyone inside the Red Bull system to make the case he should definitely be dropped.

It has only been Lawson at real risk - because Lindblad has done an excellent job alongside him as a rookie and contributed a meaningful 35% of the points that leave Racing Bulls almost certain to finish fifth in the constructors’ championship - the highest place in the team’s history.

Lawson’s job within that team is essentially to give Red Bull a benchmark of performance to measure Lindblad against. There’s no realistic possibility of Lawson becoming a contender for a Red Bull Racing seat again, in the way there might still be for Lindblad or, eventually, Tsolov.

The trouble is that Lawson has done such an excellent job in his role this season - and has even taken a further step as a driver since subbing for Isack Hadjar at Red Bull for three races - that he made himself impossible to drop even though his presence no longer really fits the 'Red Bull conveyor belt' function Racing Bulls is supposed to have.

Lawson's strong case 

On Friday in Brazil, Racing Bulls team boss Alan Permane said Racing Bulls is trying to “apply a little bit of science” to the situation, a clear rebuke of the days when Helmut Marko would hire and fire junior drivers seemingly almost on a whim. 

“Red Bull's had a very successful young driver programme, and if I want to be... and I don't want to be critical of it, but I think if you guys are critical of it, maybe sometimes the drivers haven't been able to have enough time to settle, or maybe some snap decisions have been made,” Permane said.

Lawson’s average qualifying advantage over Lindblad is only seven hundredths of a second, but in the races - where the points are paid out - Lawson has a clear advantage.

He’s scored in 13 of the 17 grands prix he’s started for Racing Bulls this year, as well as taking points in three of the six sprint races staged. He’s also finished ahead of Lindblad 11 times out of the 14 races they have both finished and run ahead of him on 77% of the racing laps both completed.

That’s made him the undisputed king of the midfield. Of the 52 qualifying sessions and races, including sprints, held this year, Lawson has been classified at the top of that group 18 times.

To put that number in context, remember Alpine and Audi have made the fight at the front of that group a close one, and that Lawson wasn’t part of the midfield for eight of those because he was in Hadjar’s Red Bull.

His approach has also caught the eye. Prior to 2026, there were times when his decision-making in battle could be self-defeating. That led to more on-track incidents than necessary.

That’s something he’s largely cut out this year, while still fighting hard enough to get the results.

He’s also adapted well to the 2026 cars, recognising he needed to contain the desire to over-drive to get the most out of them - not easy to do for a driver who can be naturally aggressive on corner entries.

He’s also able to piece together weekends consistently well, often turning things round even if they start badly on Friday.He also did a good job in those three outings for Red Bull, despite the scars of what happened to him in 2025. That shows a mental robustness, which is also reflected in his mindset amid uncertainty about his future. He’s been able to focus on doing his job and not been distracted by this - something that is easier said than done.

Lawson explained: “A year ago I thought about it a lot. It was very much in my head and you just drive worse when you overthink things.”

Lawson hasn’t suddenly transformed himself into the best driver in F1. But he’s taken a big step to become a rounded, consistent, and dependable midfield performer - and a very quick one too.

That’s what eventually made him undroppable for 2027. 

Permane had already suggested “everyone will be happy” when the announcement finally came, so that suggests that now Lawson has been confirmed alternative arrangements will be made for Tsolov - which will most likely mean an official reserve driver role and an expanded programme of F1 testing and free practice running in 2027.