McLaren believes that Max Verstappen is now a real threat in the Formula 1 title battle, off the back of an upgrade that has unlocked something extra from the Red Bull car.
While Verstappen is currently 94 points adrift of drivers' championship leader Oscar Piastri, McLaren’s analysis of Red Bull’s recent upswing in form has left it worried its main rival could be about to unleash a streak of success.
This is based off of a run of recent evidence that includes the manner in which Verstappen took pole at Monza, dominated that race, and has followed it up with pole position in Baku.
Plus, radio messages McLaren has overheard point to Red Bull having found increased downforce because its car is now running lower to the ground.
The conclusion from McLaren boss Andrea Stella is that the drivers’ title fight remains wide open because Verstappen is now back in the game.
Asked by The Race what McLaren’s analysis was saying about Red Bull, Stella said: “The takeaway from the Monza race, and the way we have reviewed this internally and set our mindset for the final one-third of the races, was that Red Bull's performance in Monza should not be considered a one-off because of Monza or a one-off because of low downforce.
“They have taken a new floor in Monza, and they might be setting up their car slightly differently.
“Now Verstappen is talking about grounding much more than he was doing before, so they might have unlocked performance.
“I would not be surprised at all that Red Bull may continue the streak that they have started - because pole position in Monza, victory, and now pole position here.
“Red Bull are a very serious contender to win races and a very serious contender for the drivers' championship.”
The points deficit that Verstappen has to Piastri means the Dutchman would need some good fortune on his side to secure the title. He needs to take out an average of 12 points per weekend over his Australian rival.
While the maths is complicated by the addition of three sprint races – in Austin, Brazil and Qatar, if Verstappen wins each of the eight remaining races (including Baku), plus those sprints, he would secure a total of 224 points.
That would mean Verstappen would take the title if Piastri scored 130 points or fewer over the eight remaining events.
Even if Piastri is beaten by Norris each time out, third place in every race (and sprint) would be enough to give him 138 points.
Despite the slim chance of such a turnaround, Stella thinks it would be a mistake to get complacent about things.
He also suggests McLaren’s situation is further complicated by the fact that it has Piastri and Norris fighting for the title, so there is a risk of them taking points off each other.
Asked if he seriously considered Verstappen a rival being so far back, Stella said: “We don't have to forget that first of all he is Max Verstappen, world champion for the last four years, in a fast car.
“There are races where McLaren may not enjoy any advantage from a competitiveness point of view, and also Lando and Oscar, they are always there [with each other], so they will not necessarily be maximising the points available.
“We are very aware of this aspect, but we let them race because they both deserve to pursue their aspirations.
“Therefore, yes, Verstappen and Red Bull are in contention for the drivers' championship.”
No number one
A run of strong races for Verstappen moving him closer to the front could force McLaren's hand in needing to throw its full weight behind one of its drivers to avoid losing the title.
But Stella says that such a situation can be ruled out, as the squad insisted it did not want to intervene in what has been an equal fight between its two drivers up until this point.
And while McLaren did have a period last year where it favoured Norris in his battle with Verstappen, Stella thinks that such an option is not on the table now.
“The situation this year is very different,” he said.
“The situation this year is two drivers that have gained the rights, have gained the condition and the points to contend for the drivers' championship.
“As a team, our responsibility is to make sure that we keep giving them a car and a quality of the execution so that they pursue their aspiration, capitalise on their talent. For us, this is the way we go racing.”
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However, Stella did acknowledge that if there was a point where one of its drivers was obviously out of contention, then it may become obvious to make the other a clear number one.
“We will observe race by race and if at some stage it looks obvious that a call needs to be made, obvious to everyone, including both drivers, then we may make this call,” he explained.
“But this is very, very far at the moment, and far also from our way of thinking right now.”
