McLaren has made an outlier tyre choice for the Formula 1 title decider in Abu Dhabi that it hopes will help it head off a major threat in its bid to beat Max Verstappen.
On a weekend where the super low-grip surface has triggered a surprise return of front tyre graining, something that McLaren is especially vulnerable to, there is uncertainty about how big an impact it could have in ramping up degradation in the race.
The situation is especially critical because complications caused by front graining are something that Lando Norris labelled in China this year as his “worst nightmare”.
If the situation remains as bad as it was on Friday, when the tyres proved to be especially fragile, then that could make McLaren’s job much harder in opening up strategy opportunities that could bring other cars into play.
But nobody is sure about where things stack up. Even though there appeared to be some track improvement on Saturday, it was not as great as many drivers and teams expected.
Furthermore, the typical Saturday programme means that no teams ran with the kind of heavy fuel loads that will typically trigger the tyre graining problem.
Well aware of the uncertainty, and the prospect that the race could turn into a two-stopper where tyre preservation is key, McLaren has gone it alone with both drivers in choosing to keep back two sets of new hard tyres for the race alongside its fresh medium.
The only other team that has anything close to that is Aston Martin, which has one set of new hards and one set of used for its pairing.
From McLaren’s perspective, the choice of having two sets of hards rather than two sets of mediums is about protecting itself from the dangers of front tyre graining and high degradation.
The harder tyre is not only less at risk to graining - because it is more difficult to tear the surface - but also should be able to run longer so can help open up greater strategy variations.
Asked by The Race if the graining situation remained a concern heading into tomorrow, McLaren team boss Andrea Stella said: “I think we have seen in practice that the level of degradation and graining was above expectation in a way.
“[But] a shout-out to our strategy team that said 'let's save the hard tyres', which is what we did…. [For] a race where you have this level of graining and degradation it could be a good strategic option.”
Pirelli itself is hopeful that track evolution that is still due to come over the course of Sunday, with support races all morning, should help further minimise the risk of graining.
However, Stella thinks that this cannot be taken for granted because experience so far this year points to the improvements not being so dramatic into race day.
“In terms of the behaviour of the tyres improving in the race, I don't think this year we have seen much of an improvement of the graining behaviour because of the track rubbering in,” he explained.
“This sort of behaviour, I don't think they manifest themselves anymore, at least at this moment in time of the technical regulation and of the tyres that we have available.”
Verstappen games
Beyond the impact of tyre graining throwing an extra complication into the strategy mix, there is also the prospect of McLaren’s title rival Verstappen potentially controlling the pace at the front in a bid to back Norris and Oscar Piastri up.
Stella said that he expected things to be far from straightforward, with big uncertainty about what direction the strategy will go.
“In terms of how the race will unfold, there may be reasons to control the pace even from a tyre point of view, not necessarily because of some strategic reason for the lead car,” he said.
“So definitely we will see some pace control, and it will be interesting to see whether the tyre degradation means that the race will be more on a one- or a two-stop. I think this is a bit of an open question.”
But while it would be no surprise for Verstappen to back up the McLarens to try to get other cars in the mix, Stella does not think this is necessarily a problem for his team.
With two cars at the front, and Verstappen needing to win, McLaren has the ability to roll the dice and split the strategies with its cars – leaving its Red Bull rival with a clear choice to make about which one to cover.
“I think it's an advantage,” he said about having both cars up there. “We have more options to play.
“At some stage if you slow down too much you may be susceptible to being attacked with undercuts. You may expose yourself in terms of being overtaken.
“So I think definitely it's good that we are there with two cars. So no, that's the position I would take rather than having the two cars split and separated on track.”
