After months of speculation about the possibility of someone standing against Mohammed Ben Sulayem in this year's FIA presidential election, the news that Carlos Sainz Sr is considering a bid has triggered a fair bit of intrigue.
As first reported by Autosport, the two-time world rally champion is currently weighing up whether to officially throw his hat into the ring and put himself up against Ben Sulayem in December's election.
Nothing has been decided yet and Sainz himself says he now needs to spend some time working out if he can put together a campaign that will generate the level of support needed.
As he told The Race: "I've been thinking about it, and quite a few people have encouraged me.
"At the moment I'm trying to figure out what is the response from every point of view - which includes the motorsport clubs, the wider motorsport community and mobility.
"When it comes to the point we have to decide, depending on the situation, we will press the button or not. But it is serious. I am putting some thought into it."
What Sainz needs to evaluate properly is if a bid will stand any chance of success - especially with the FIA system essentially stacking the odds against a challenger.
No FIA president has been defeated in an election since Max Mosley beat Jean-Marie Balestre back in 1993.
And changes to the election rules laid down in the FIA's statutes in the intervening period have also made things even tougher.
For the challenge of gauging whether to push on with a presidential bid is not just about working out if there is enough member club support to win; it is essential to know you can navigate the complexities of the FIA election process, which can kill things before they have even started.
'The list'
Under the FIA's internal regulations and its statutes, committing to standing for an election is not just about putting yourself forward - you have to have a full team of FIA members exclusively supporting you.
Known as "the list", this must comprise the presidential candidate themselves plus double-digit other officials. They are:
- the president of the senate
- the deputy president for automobile mobility and tourism
- the deputy president for sport
- seven vice-presidents of the FIA for sport from among the candidates for the World Motor Sport Council proposed by the FIA members holding the sporting power
A bigger demand is that one each of the vice-presidents has to come from the following regions: Middle East and North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Sudan and Tunisia); Africa (with the exception of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Sudan and Tunisia); North America; South America; and AsiaPacific; plus two such vice-presidents from Europe.
This latter requirement effectively ensures that any FIA presidential candidate has global support behind them, and is not being pushed simply by securing a bloc of support from an individual region.
There is a further complication here with the FIA statutes declaring candidates may only support one list.
This means that FIA members cannot hedge their bets by supporting two rival candidates before voting starts. They have to publicly nail their flag to the mast to support one of them.
Furthermore, if the president has total support from one of the nominated regions - such as South America, for example - then that could lock out a rival from being able to put together a list at all as they could not fulfil the minimum criteria required.
An added complication could be that the election rules may change this year too, which could make things more difficult for any challenger.
The FIA is holding its 2025 Extraordinary General Assemblies and Conference in Macau in June, and there are suggestions that amendments could be put forward in the FIA statutes relating to the election process.
There has been no confirmation on this front yet, but the picture should become clearer over the next few days when the agendas are released.
Club support
Should Sainz feel that he can put together a robust list to create an election campaign, then comes the big job of winning over the votes necessary.
The election is decided by 245 member organisations across 149 countries - with the division of votes split depending on how each country's associations and federations operate.
In simple terms, each country gets 24 votes: 12 for its mobility club and 12 for its sporting club.
If a country has more than one mobility club, then the votes are split between them.
However, some countries only have a single association for both sport and mobility, so they get 24 votes.
This means that some clubs have more voting powers than others.
For example, France has three mobility clubs (the Automobile Club of France, the Automobile Club Association and the French Federation of Camping and Caravanning) so each gets four votes.
Whereas those clubs that are for both sport and mobility - like the Automobile Club of Albania and the Automobile Club of Andorra - carry 24 votes.
This means that some countries are more valuable to target, as winning them over requires backing from just a single club.
It is a complex process to manoeuvre, especially because some clubs follow each other and decide to back one candidate en masse.
Furthermore, some regions hold far more sway than others - simply because there are more clubs in that area.
The mobility question
While Sainz is very well known in motor racing circles and would be well respected by motorsport federations, to succeed in the FIA election he would need to win over mobility clubs as well - which would have to be convinced he is the right person for the job.
Their desires will not be on what is best for F1 or at international motor racing level, but what is in it for their own self interests - and that could be as simple as funding for projects they are most interested in at a national level.
Sainz is confident that he is not just coming at it from the motorsport perspective - as his role as advisor of the Ponle Freno road safety platform that does much to drive improvements on the streets of Spain shows how much he cares about the mobility side too.
He is also involved in safety courses at his family's karting centre in Madrid.
"I think I've been very active myself in road safety, having worked with Ponle Freno for 15 years," he added.
"It is something we all certainly have a responsibility for, and the mobility clubs are as important as the ASNs [associations]."
One other factor that could come under the spotlight is a possible conflict of interest in him being the father of a current F1 driver.
While Sainz told Autosport that he would happily step down from any role with his son, Carlos Jr, who drives for Williams, and "there will be no conflict", it could be something that some clubs may want to pore over in more detail.
Sainz's considerations
There is certainly much that Sainz needs to think about when it comes to deciding if he will stand, and right now there is not a rush to commit one way or another.
According to the FIA statutes, a final decision on standing for election does not need to be made until 21 days prior to the election.
With the vote taking place on December 12, then that means Sainz could wait until November 21 at the latest before deciding.
However, if there is to be any realistic chance of a campaign getting some momentum behind it - especially when it comes to winning over clubs - then a decision will need to be made much sooner.
Key to everything will be the level of support that Sainz thinks he will be able to get - and his decision to go public that he is considering standing is most likely fuelled by his desire to get a sense of where he stands on that front.
Another factor too is where a potential Sainz bid sits with other candidates or alliances that may be having similar thoughts of a challenge, but have not yet come forward.
The Race has learned of two other individuals who may be evaluating bids.
It is accepted opinion that, with the complications of going up against the incumbent already quite challenging, then it is nigh-on impossible to think that there can be more than one alternative candidate.
So any move by someone to officially throw their hat into the ring and go up against Ben Sulayem will have implications for others.
Sainz said he had received "a lot of extremely positive feedback" about the possibility of standing, but now he will have to see if things snowball from here.
"If I feel I have support I will go for it," he said. "But if I feel there is not much support then I won't."
