> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.the-race.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # What to expect from F1’s Italian GP - URL: https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/f1-italian-gp-strategy-preview-slipstream-yoyo-racing/ - Published: 2026-09-06T08:11:46.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-06T08:26:52.000Z - Description: Qualifying at Monza produced a huge shock and Sunday's grand prix has all the ingredients to do the same... - Author: Josh Suttill - Tags: Formula 1, #italian-grand-prix, #primary_homepage_feature Formula 1’s Italian Grand Prix has already served up one of the biggest shocks of recent years thanks to Pierre Gasly’s pole position for Alpine. But on a weekend of energy deployment headaches and a very powerful slipstream, the surprises may well not be over - as the consensus is that the race itself should throw up some more. No one in the paddock is exactly sure of what is to come and how things will play out in the end, with yo-yo racing, performance swings and the potential for jeopardy all on the agenda. But there is agreement on some key factors that will influence the type of race we should be braced for. ### Early chaos We have seen plenty of times this year how tracks that leave the 2026 cars energy-starved are a catalyst for shaking up the order on Sundays. Different deployment patterns and offsets of battery power make passes easy and open the door for what’s become known as yo-yo racing. This phenomenon is often exacerbated in the opening laps as the variability can be more extreme with cars bunched together and energy management more haphazard. Throw into the mix how powerful the slipstream is, plus the long run to Turn 1, and it’s no wonder Oscar Piastri thinks there could be some shenanigans early on. “The first few laps of the race could be quite chaotic - and not necessarily the quickest car is going to be leading all the time,” he said. ### Yo-yo racing compromises While races often eventually settle down from early yo-yo madness as drivers converge on where they deploy power, it is not definite that will happen at Monza because of how energy-poor the cars are there. One lesson drivers have learned in 2026 is that once you start battling someone, that costs a lot of laptime as energy deployment is compromised – so attacking someone runs the risk of dropping you into the pack. McLaren team boss Andrea Stella reckoned it was not easy to work out how best to approach things, because anyone wanting to move up the order faces potential consequences. “It's a race in which if you start to play with the boost, and overtake cars, you may get overtaken and you may start to lose overall time in the race,” he said. “But at the same time, if you're faster, you may want to pass. Being close to the car ahead will make you fast - and if you pass you may be slower than you were after. It will be very interesting.” Carlos Sainz reckoned that drivers were going to have to weigh up how aggressive they wanted to be. “I think it depends how disciplined people are with their boost press,” he said. “It will all come down to how much race time you want to give up by starting to get into yo-yo racing with the boost presses, and how optimal you want to stay without pressing the boost and just doing whatever the deployment wants to do. “It's going to be quite a bit depending on who you have around you and who is willing to get into a yo-yo battle.” ### Breaking the tow While a key consideration for drivers will be how much to go on the offensive to move forward, as much thought is going to have to go into protecting yourself from behind, too. The energy starvation problem means that the extra energy on offer from overtake mode is going to help keep drivers in touch with the cars ahead – so could lead to some trains. Key to stopping a queue forming behind, with all the risks of then getting dragged into a yo-yo battle, will be breaking the one-second gap where overtake mode is triggered. This is going to be decisive to the outcome, according to Williams driver Alex Albon. **“**I think it's going to be a fun race,” he said. “From what I've seen, it's quicker to stay as close as you can to the car in front, and the moment you lose overtake mode, at least for us, you lose performance. “So, everyone's going to be trying to break that tow. It's going to be one of those kinds of swinging-around races.” Albon suggested that this game would become as critical a thing for teams to help manage as it was for the drivers – as he reckoned the cat-and-mouse games would be helped by staff back at base. "The mental warfare has overtaken the physical combat,” he said. “This is more like GPS data analysis back at factory, giving us immediate response times of what we need to do and what mode switches we need to change to anticipate what cars are doing around us. “This in many ways is tactical, but at the same time you feel sometimes helpless. You cannot just defend anymore.” ### Team-mates working together Part of those tactics should involve some team-mates working together. Front row starters Pierre Gasly and George Russell don't have their team-mates nearby to help them, but the Ferraris are starting alongside each other on the second row. It's why Lewis Hamilton urged "we do have to work as a team" after a qualifying session where he was disappointed by the execution - he was left without a tow on his first Q3 run, and that meant he didn't have the right braking references for his crucial final lap. After a messy Zandvoort, this race is a huge test for Ferrari and whether it can get its drivers to work together to get the result on a weekend where the pressure to deliver has never been higher. ### Can Gasly hold on? One of the key questions is whether Gasly can convert his shock Saturday result into a giant-killing on Sunday, taking into account all of the above factors. The track record for surprise polesitters is mixed. Those who take their poles in wet conditions via an inspired tyre call in qualifying often slip back on race day, as you’d expect given they don’t have the car performance to match in the dry. But there is a good history of those who take a surprise pole in the dry bringing home a strong result on race day. --- ### Where surprise polesitters ended up Kevin Magnussen Brazil 2022\*: 8th in the sprint, DNF in grand prix Lance Stroll Turkey 2020\*: 9th Felipe Massa Austria 2014: 4th Pastor Maldonado Spain 2012: 1st Nico Hulkenberg Brazil 2010\*: 8th Giancarlo Fisichella Belgium 2009: 2nd *\*Pole taken in wet conditions* --- The key question will be whether Alpine has that same strong car in race conditions. The A526 is a very efficient car, with its lack of downforce relative to the top teams not a penalty around Monza. The Alpine has a good top speed that should serve Gasly well when defending, but it won’t be as comfortable as when he was leading the 2020 Italian Grand Prix (thanks to a well-timed safety car) and he could keep Carlos Sainz’s McLaren at arm’s length. For all the reasons we’ve listed above, there are far more opportunities for rivals to pass him than there were back then. “This year Monza is an energy-starved circuit with four overtaking zones. A driver cannot defend all of them, so a faster car should be able to make progress relatively straightforwardly,” Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin pointed out ahead of the weekend in relation to Kimi Antonelli making progress from the back of the grid. So it’s all down to what kind of race pace the low-drag Alpine has, whether it can look after its tyres in the race, keep them in the right window when under pressure from other cars, and get the energy management equation right. It’s a huge opportunity for Alpine to regain the points lost from its Monaco podium being stripped away, a decision that’s allowed Racing Bulls to extend its grip on fifth in the championship to 16 points before a wheel was even turned at Monza. Racing Bulls’ Arvid Lindblad is expecting Gasly to be swallowed up by the top teams. “More than anything, I'm just surprised by the Alpine; obviously they were holding something in reserve,” Lindblad said after qualifying 10th. “I don't think Pierre's going to stay there. I think he'll slowly shuffle back, but for sure he's going to be starting ahead of me, so when he shuffles back he'll still be quite far ahead.” How long does Gasly think he’ll stay ahead? “That’s a very good question,” Gasly said when that was put to him. “My plan is to stay first as long as I can. How long is that going to be? I have no idea. And my focus is going to be on my driving and making no mistakes and making the best out of what I have.” But when asked by Sky Sports F1 if he could actually win the race, Gasly replied: “Why not?” ### An easy one-stop The tyre degradation level at Monza has been lower on the soft tyre than it has been on the hard tyre at other circuits. It means, barring safety car or red flag interventions, a one-stop race is the most likely strategy. There is an interesting question of starting tyre, though. Pirelli’s motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi said it will depend on “the characteristics of each car” as well as each team’s strategy approach. Starting on the mediums makes a lot of sense as it gives the most strategic flexibility to make that one pitstop under a virtual or full safety car interruption. Pirelli says the quickest strategy on paper is to start on mediums, pit somewhere between laps 24-30, and run the hard tyre to the end of the 53-lap race. It estimates a medium-soft strategy (pitting within laps 30-36) is around two seconds slower. Teams could also start on the soft tyre, benefit from the extra grip off the line, and then pit between laps 19-25 for the hard tyre and run that to the end. --- ### Tyre sets available top 10 Gasly: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 4 used softs Russell: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 used medium, 3 used softs Hamilton: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 new soft, 3 used softs Leclerc: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 new soft, 3 used softs Verstappen: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 new soft, 3 used softs Piastri: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 new soft, 3 used softs Colapinto: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 4 used softs Norris: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 new soft, 3 used softs Lindblad: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 4 used softs Bortoleto: 1 new hard, 1 new medium, 1 new soft, 4 used softs